BBC News, UK
Jan 21 2005

Analysis: Belarus defies West
By Leonid Ragozin
BBCRussian.com

Prominent political rivals of Mr Lukashenko have disappeared
President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s regime in Belarus has long been a
target of US criticism – and the Bush administration clearly has it
on its radar.

The new US “outposts of tyranny” list presented by the incoming US
Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, mentions just one European
country – Belarus.

President Lukashenko, who maintains an iron Soviet-style grip on
Belarus, hit back on Friday, saying “some might not want this sort of
freedom which reeks of oil and is splattered with blood”.

The strength of “people power” in neighbouring Ukraine has fuelled
speculation that Belarus might go the same way.

But some experts are sceptical about such a scenario.

“Lukashenko obviously rigged the last (October 2004) referendum, but
nevertheless, according to independent observers, he received almost
48% of the votes, which amounts to colossal support,” says Russian
political analyst Andrey Piontkovsky.

Crackdown on dissent

Mr Lukashenko has used his security forces against non-governmental
organisations and the independent media. Demonstrations are often
broken up brutally.

Several prominent politicians have disappeared.

Mr Lukashenko, in power since 1994, also disbanded an elected
parliament, installing a hand-picked group of loyal deputies.

Belarus country profile

Angered by such authoritarian practices, the White House adopted the
Belarus Democracy Act last year.

It provides for sanctions against Belarus and the promotion of
democracy by helping non-governmental organisations and fostering an
independent media.

It also bans US federal agencies from giving any financial aid to the
country.

Radek Sikorski of the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington
think-tank, says “small amounts of money could go a long way” to
promote democracy in Belarus.

He advocates “Cold War-style activity” to effect change in Belarus,
such as “broadcasting real information into the country, supporting
underground newspapers”.

Instead of visa restrictions, Belarussian officials accused of
involvement in “disappearing” dissidents should be encouraged to
visit the West and then arrested, he told the BBC News website.

Shunned by EU

Mr Lukashenko, often dubbed “Europe’s last dictator”, is also a major
headache for the European Union, two of whose members – Poland and
Lithuania – share borders with it. I can’t see a figure around
which such a revolution could possibly develop

Jim Dingley
UK expert on Belarus

Four key members of Mr Lukashenko’s administration are banned from
visiting EU countries over their alleged role in the disappearances.

According to Mr Sikorski, the EU “has much stronger instruments than
the US” to influence Belarus, “for example, the promise of a European
path for the country”.

“If people can travel to the West, see the EU and democracy working,
eventually a new generation will demand the same rights,” he said.

He did not rule out a Ukraine-style popular revolt.

But according to Andrey Piontkovsky, Mr Lukashenko “remains popular,
unlike the completely bankrupt regimes of Slobodan Milosevic in
Yugoslavia, Eduard Shevardnadze in Georgia or Leonid Kuchma in
Ukraine” – all of which succumbed to “people power”.

Jim Dingley, a British expert on Belarus, describes the prospects for
such an uprising in Belarus as “highly unlikely”.

“I can’t see a figure around which such a revolution could possibly
develop.”

Nationalism weak

Moreover, Belarus does not have much national identity around which a
protest movement could coalesce, he says.

World War II largely destroyed the country’s ethnic mix and
nationalism was suppressed by the Soviet authorities.

Its once large Jewish population was largely exterminated by the
Nazis, many Poles were deported by Stalin or fled and Belarussian
identity was diluted by an influx of settlers from Russia.

In the long-term “a core of businessmen who are quite dissatisfied
with the limitations imposed on the free development of private
enterprise” could spearhead a revolt, Mr Dingley says.

But Mr Piontkovsky agrees that the prospects for a “velvet
revolution” in the near future in Belarus “are not too rosy”.

Russian influence

But Russia, which maintains close ties with Belarus, could play a
significant role, analysts agree.

The US “can and should use President [Vladimir] Putin to put pressure
on Lukashenko,” says Mr Sikorski. “The regime couldn’t survive a few
weeks without Russian support.”

Russia has been increasingly angered by Mr Lukashenko.

Russian newspapers speculated that he was aiming to become leader of
a united state of Russia and Belarus – a country which has existed on
paper since 1996.

But the leaderships disagree on key economic issues and relations
with the West.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said in February 2004 that “the Belarus
president is responsible for systematic mistakes in domestic and
foreign policy, which hamper economic development and lead to the
international isolation of Belarus”.

But other former Soviet republics might be more ripe for regime
change in the near future, analysts say.

“Kyrgyzstan and Moldova are the first candidates, followed by
Armenia,” says Mr Piontkovsky.

He also believes that Russia’s President Putin is now on shakier
ground than Mr Lukashenko.

And Ms Rice did not include in the “outposts of tyranny” list the
Central Asian republics of Turkmenistan or Uzbekistan.

Opposition demonstrations do sometimes take place in Belarus – but
not even that limited dissent is tolerated in Turkmenistan and
Uzbekistan, where human rights abuses are widespread.