Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
January 26, 2005, Wednesday

PARTNERSHIP NOT FOR PEACE

SOURCE: Novye Izvestia, January 24, 2005, p. 4

by Mekhman Gafarly

BAKU FEARS THAT AZERBAIJAN WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE WAR THE UNITED
STATES MAY DECLARE ON IRAN

The words of the US President on the possibility of hostilities as a
solution to the problem of Iraq caused panic, and not only in the
United States, Baku fears that Azerbaijan will be drawn into the
American war on Iran.

Aina newspaper (Baku) reported in November 2004, that over 50
servicemen of the US Army were quartered on the military base near
the settlement of Chukhanly, Saljan district. Ilgar Verdiyev of the
Defense Ministry PR Department confirmed the information but pointed
out that the servicemen in question had come to Azerbaijan within the
framework of NATO’s Partnership for Peace Program. Azerbaijani
military experts do not think so. Former officers of the Defense
Ministry say that co-operation between Baku and NATO has already
exceeded the boundaries of Partnership for Peace Program. The
statement made by NATO General Secretary Jaap de Hoof Scheffer was
revealing in itself. He said in Baku the other day that Azerbaijan
had already been given its homework and had to do it now.

NATO’s Training and Equip Program is under way in Azerbaijan now. It
is under way on the testing site in Garaeibat near Baku and in the
environs of Chukhanly near the border with Iran. Both settlements are
located near military airfields. Recently upgraded to NATO standards,
the airfields may be used for air strikes at Iran.

Zerkalo Internet edition reports that there are reasons to believe
that the Americans intend to deploy TRML-3D mobile radars in
Azerbaijan. This is how Baku explains it: should they decide to
strike at Iran, the Americans can hardly expect any information from
the Russian radar in the Gabala district of Azerbaijan.

The rumors on the forthcoming are only intensified when the
Azerbaijan media reported with references to the Canadian Cmag that
the United States is preparing to attack Iran and that Washington
already began consultations with its allies, Azerbaijan included. The
United States is compelled to make Azerbaijan one of the key
countries in the war on Iran. It understands that in the war on Iran
the United States cannot count on as many allies as it had in the war
on Iraq. The European Union categorically objects to the military
operation. Its countries have too many interests in Iran,
particularly in the energy sphere.

Turkey, Washington’s ally in the region, is against the hostilities
too. Ankara depends on fuel from Iran as much as Europe does. Along
with everything else, it does not want another source of armed
Kurdish separatism near its borders.

In theory, Washington may use the territories of Armenia, Syria,
Iraq, Afghanistan, and Azerbaijan for the invasion. Armenia and Syria
are automatically out, as former Russia’s ally, the latter as
Washington’s enemy. Iraq and Afghanistan, where guerrilla fighters
are active, are not exactly safe and reliable. Besides, pro-Iranian
Shiah parties led by as-Sistani may win the forthcoming parliamentary
election in Iraq. All these considerations make the territory of
Azerbaijan the only reliable bridgehead for America.

It goes without saying that Iran is doing what it can to safeguard
itself from an attack from the Azerbaijani territory. In the hope to
improve its relations with Baku, official Tehran even permitted it to
open a consulate general in Tebriz (denied Azerbaijan for a decade).
When President of Azerbaijan visits Iran soon, he will be permitted
to visit Tebriz, mostly populated by ethnic Azerbaijanis. The series
of visits to Baku is quite revealing too. In the last few months, the
capital of Azerbaijan received special envoy of the president of Iran
for the Caspian region, minister of health care, security minister,
and defense minister. The latter, Ali Shamkhani, was particularly
eloquent. “Security of Azerbaijan is our security,” he said. “Our
defense capacity is your defense capacity.”

Iran is trying to tackle all moot points in the relations with
Azerbaijan as soon as possible. Baku still remembers how Iranian
ships and aircraft crossed the Azerbaijani borders in August 2001.
These days, Tehran is prepared to offer guarantees to Azerbaijan that
Iran will never resort to sheer strength in addressing moot points.
Iran is even prepared to sign the Caspian agreement on the terms
suggested by Ilham Aliyev (divide the sea into national sectors and
work the deposits whose ownership is disputed together). In return,
Tehran wants guarantees that the Americans for the attack on Iran
will not use the territory of Azerbaijan. That is why representatives
of Tehran already hinted that should the Americans attack their
country from the territory of Azerbaijan; a retaliation strike at the
Azerbaijani territory would be inevitable.

Translated by A. Ignatkin