Analyst says Russia wants military presence in Azerbaijan

Yeni Musavat, Baku
2 Feb 05

Excerpt from Elsad report by Azerbaijani newspaper Yeni Musavat on 2
February headlined “Lavrov’s visit has begun” and subheaded “Vafa
Quluzada: ‘ In Azerbaijan, Russia intends to make up for its losses in
Ukraine'”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will begin his meetings in Baku
today [on 2 February].

[Passage omitted: Lavrov’s schedule in Baku]

Political analyst Vafa Quluzada believes that the visit should be
closely watched. In his view, the visit of the Russian foreign
minister to Azerbaijan is by no means a routine event. “Before this,
Yevgeniy Primakov once came to Baku in his capacity as Russian foreign
minister. True, there was a motive of personal friendship with [the
late Azerbaijani President] Heydar Aliyev in Primakov’s
visit. However, it became clear then that the objective behind
Primakov’s visit to Baku was to induce Azerbaijan to engage in direct
talks with Nagornyy Karabakh.”

In Quluzada’s opinion, Lavrov’s objectives are broader than those of
Primakov. “Because then there was no talk of a Nagornyy Karabakh peace
accord based on compromise. Instead, there was talk of Azerbaijan’s
position, territorial integrity and the withdrawal of the occupying
forces on the basis of UN resolutions, and giving the Armenians the
autonomous status. This is why Russia wanted its troops to receive the
status of peacekeepers at the Budapest summit [of the OSCE].”

In Quluzada’s view, Russia is trying to restore its military presence
in Azerbaijan and seeks to turn the country into a member of the
Collective Security Treaty.

Commenting on reports that Russia could become a guarantor on
Karabakh, Quluzada said: “Russia’s guarantee means that Armenia
withdraws its troops from certain districts and Russia occupies them
to prevent clashes between the two sides. This signifies that Russia
will establish complete control over Azerbaijan, like it did with
Armenia.”

Quluzada did not rule out that all these issues could be discussed
but, in his opinion, there is nothing else for Lavrov to do in
Azerbaijan.

Quluzada thinks that Moscow has drawn a complex plan regarding
Azerbaijan. “Lavrov’s visit could be the first step. Next,
[Azerbaijani President Ilham] I. Aliyev is expected to visit Russia
in February and will meet [Russian President Vladimir] Putin. Russia
wants to use the Nagornyy Karabakh issue to return its armed forces to
Azerbaijan. In a nutshell, Russia intends to compensate its failure in
Ukraine by success in Azerbaijan.”