Analysts, Politicians Comment on Georgian Politics after Zhvania’s Death

Civil Georgia (Tbilisi)
2005-02-03

Observers say that the death of Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania, who was
one of the major architects of the country’s policy, will trigger shifts
in the Georgian political life. Below are some comments by analysts and
politicians, who spoke to Civil Georgia about the possible political
consequences.

Ghia Nodia, political analyst

I do not think that this fact will change the political course in its
entirity, however we should anticipate speficic reshuffles in the
executive, in the government and the Parliament, where the members of
Zhvania’s team have suddenly become an informal grouping [with no
official backing].

The most critical element is in Zhvania’s absence, as he somehow
balanced the [political] situation [in the government]. Two informal
groups were distinguishable in the present authorities – radicals and
moderates; this had a balancing effect on the decisions made by the
authorities and, in my opinion, represented a strength rather than a
weakness, especially against the current political background wherein
there is no influential opposition in the country. Unfortunately, this
balance will [now] be weakened.

Any changes in the authorities will be natural, since the change of any
leader, and it is beyond any doubt that Zhvania was a political leader,
entails staff changes.

Probably, his successor is among the present ministers; however he will
not be as strong a figure as Zhvania was.

Davit Usupashvili, legal expert and a leading civil society activist

Even if Zhvania had stepped down at his own with, this would have
triggered great changes in the internal political life of Georgia; now,
after his death, changes are unavoidable.

Zhvania’s death is one of the worst-case scenarios that might have
happened for the country. This further complicates the situation,
especially as the country has entered the stage of dynamic processes,
with many initiatives [proposed] and numerous problems.

The government and its fate are constitutionally bound to the Prime
Minister. I do not think that the death of Zurab Zhvania, who was
agreeably not an ordinary played in Georgian politics, will trigger any
fundamental changes. However, it is quite clear that specific [personnel
and political] changes will still take place.

The Saakashvili-Zhvania tandem worked well in the executive authorities.
This [format of relationship] is reflected in the [current]
constitutional model as well. From this point of view, selecting a new
person [to fit this constitutional] model will not be so easy.

The President has seven days to select a new Prime Minister. Lets’ wait
for his choice.

As for the political spectrum, the members of the so-called Zhvania’s
political team will have to become the members of the National Movement,
not only formally [as many did previously] but also de facto. I doubt
that any member of his [Zhvania’s] team would manage to replace him [as
a leader of the political faction].

Ia Antadze, political analyst

It is very difficult to make any forecasts currently, but I can say that
politics will probably become more concentrated.

The government’s positions and decisions were more balanced [with
Zhvania], since disputes used to take place in the decision making
process between the radical and moderate parts of the authorities.

The future would allow us to see better the role which Zurab Zhvania had
in Georgia’s political life. It will be also reflected in how
Saakashvili manages to make balanced decisions.

MP Davit Berdzenishvili, opposition Republican Party

The strange and sudden death of this political figurehead of our
generation triggers feelings that even the government members are not
protected from [accidents]. I don’t think that this accident will change
our government’s general political course drastically. I also don’t
think it will trigger serious internal problems for Georgia.

But I am sure this fact will create lots of problems for Saakashvili’s
administration, at least initially.

MP Pikria Chikhradze, the New Rights-Industrialist opposition coalition

The death of Zurab Zhvania, which is personally very painful for me, as
well as the blast in Gori [on February 1, which killed three and injured
27 people], creates a sense of instability in the country.

It is most likely that Zurab Zhvania’s death will have a serious impact
on the country’s political life. Zhvania was a person who was in charge
of the political life [of the country] for a long time; he was an
extremely influential figure. Roots of his influence were spread
throughout the government, media and non-governmental sector as well.

Everybody had a feeling that Zhvania’s personality had a stabilizing and
balancing role in the government and when the government lacks this kind
of force, this will have an impact on entire country.

His death has already triggered changes, because this was followed by
the automatic resignation of the entire cabinet.

I think those persons in the cabinet which were regarded as his [Zurab
Zhvania] closest allies will be replaced [by others] soon. But I don’t
think that that staff changes will follow among the lower level officials.

As for Zhvania’s replacement at the Prime Minister’s position, I don’t
have any information about this from sources close to the government, as
I am in the opposition; I only know what the Georgian media speculates
about. And these speculations mainly concern Irakli Okruashvili [the
Defense Minister].

I think it will be better if a person with less political ambition
becomes the new Prime Minister.