Russia offers Azerbaijan military bloc for Karabakh conflict solution – paper

Yeni Musavat, Baku
3 Feb 05

Text of political department report by Azerbaijani newspaper Yeni
Musavat on 3 February headlined “Ilham Aliyev is visiting Moscow
again” and subheaded “Putin will discuss with him Azerbaijan’s joining
the Collective Security Treaty”

[Azerbaijani President] Ilham Aliyev is expected to pay a two-day
visit to Moscow on 15-16 February, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey
Lavrov said yesterday. Aliyev’s visit to the Russian capital is said
to be related to the opening of the days of Azerbaijan in
Moscow. Agreement was reached last year that the days of Russia would
be held in Azerbaijan and then the days of Azerbaijan would take place
in Russia.

However, the real reason for Aliyev’s another visit to Moscow is not
culture. According to a diplomatic source, Putin has invited him to
Moscow to discuss more serious political issues and, in particular,
Azerbaijan’s joining the Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CST). It was the focal point of Lavrov’s talks in Baku yesterday. The
issue of Azerbaijan’s joining the CST was discussed with Foreign
Minister Elmar Mammadyarov and later with President Aliyev. Informed
sources said that the Kremlin considers Azerbaijan’s CST membership in
the context of a settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. In
other words, Russia intends to give its consent to the settlement of
the conflict only in case Azerbaijan agrees to join the military bloc
and have Russian military bases on its territory.

Putin put the issue of Azerbaijan’s joining the CST on the agenda back
in February last year during Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Moscow. Russia’s
influential Kommersant daily has recently claimed that Aliyev has
promised Putin that Azerbaijan will join the CST. But the Kremlin is
concerned that he has not done anything in this direction and has not
specified his position over the past year.

At the same time, Aliyev believes that he first needs to strengthen
his power inside the country in order to decide on such an important
issue as Azerbaijan’s joining the CST. But Moscow seems to be
concerned that Aliyev will renege on his promise and is therefore
increases pressure on him. If Aliyev agrees to Azerbaijan’s joining
the Russian-dominated military bloc, he will deal a serious blow to
the interests of the West. In turn, the West will never be reconciled
with that situation. On the other hand, Aliyev should fulfil its
commitments to Russia, which played a major role in his accession to
power. Only in this case Russia will be prepared to defend his power.

In order to avoid Moscow’s pressure for joining the CST, Azerbaijan
has been saying that it is impossible to be in the same military bloc
with Armenia. But at a traditional annual news conference in December
last year Putin said that Azerbaijan may find a common language with
Armenia if it joins the CST. By saying that Putin dropped a hint that
the resolution of the Karabakh problem may be possible after
Azerbaijan joins the CST, thus staying in the area of Russia’s
military and political influence. Putin is expected to discuss the
issue more specifically in a meeting with Aliyev and try to obtain his
answer.