ZHVANIA’S DEATH CREATES VOID IN GEORGIAN REFORM TEAM

Eurasia Insight

EurasiaNet.org
2/03/05

By Elizabeth Owen

Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania’s untimely death deals a severe blow to
Georgia’s reform process. Political analysts have expressed concern that
the loss of Zhvania’s political and administrative skills will damage
the Georgian’s government’s cohesiveness and diminish its
policy-implementation ability.

Seeking to keep potential disruption to a minimum, President Mikheil
Saakashvili moved quickly to fill the political void, announcing
February 3 that he would assume Zhvania’s duties on an interim basis.
`I, as the President of Georgia, will assume the leadership of the
executive authorities,’ Saakashvili said.

`It is very important to maintain order and discipline in the country. I
want to warn everybody that all those who violate order and discipline
will be answerable before the law,’ Saakashvili continued. `We fully
control the situation, we are a strong state, we are a strong nation and
we will manage to resolve [our] problems.’

The heads of various ministries also attempted to project a sense of
stability, stressing on February 3 that the government was operating
normally. For example, State Minister for Economic Reforms Kakha
Bendukidze emphasized during a news conference that economic policy
would continue. `All the plans regarding the further liberalization of
the economy will be carried out,’ he said.

Georgian law gives Saakashvili seven days to name a new prime minister.
The nominated prime minister will then have ten days to assemble a new
cabinet, which will then be presented to parliament for approval.

Finding a suitable replacement will prove a major challenge for the
Saakashvili administration, observers say. `Zhvania was really running
the country and implementing policies and it’s very hard to find someone
who can be a political heavyweight and function in the same [manner],’
said Ghia Nodia, director of the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy
and Development.

While Saakashvili brought charisma to the reform movement that swept
into power following the 2003 Rose Revolution, he relied heavily on
Zhvania to supply the administrative details. `I don’t think there will
be a change in policy because Saakashvili was still the main person who
defined policy,’ Nodia said. `But the quality of implementation is the
major concern in this case.’

The new prime minister, Nodia added, will not have the same political
clout that Zhvania had. `There will be a prime minister, but a much
politically weaker prime minister,’ Nodia said.

Legal and political expert David Usupashvili suggested that Saakashvili
had a special political relationship with Zhvania that will be virtually
impossible to duplicate. `The individual functions between the president
and the prime minister were in many ways the result of a political
agreement between these two politicians,’ said Usupashvili, who was one
of the critics of the 2004 revisions to the Georgian constitution that
amplified the president’s powers. `It will be very difficult for
Saakashvili to find a replacement who could fit in this model, which was
designed for two concrete politicians.’

Since Saakashvili’s administration came to power in January 2004, it has
pursued an ambitious program designed to erase Georgia’s chaotic
post-Soviet legacy. The government has aggressively pursued efforts to
reintegrate the country and root out corruption. At the same time, the
government has acted to change Georgia’s geopolitical course, breaking
away from Russia’s sphere of influence and seeking to join Western
economic and security structures.

Zhvania had been a high-profile figure in Georgia’s privatization
process, especially in the state’s sale of `strategic’ properties.
Outside observers had questioned the responsibility taken on by Zhvania,
but in an earlier interview with EurasiaNet, First Deputy Economy
Minister Natia Turnava described the prime minister’s role as `critical’
to the potential success of the privatization process. On January 31,
the prime minister announced the sale of the Georgian Ocean Shipping
Company to Armstrong Holdings Corp. for $161 million. The announcement
came one day after he had mistakenly named another company, the
British-Australian firm ASP Ship Management, as the buyer.

Zhvania’s also exerted considerable influence in Georgia’s longstanding
tussles with the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The
prime minister was widely seen in Georgia as heading a `party of peace,’
favoring a gradual reconciliation policy with the separatist
territories. In pursuing a go-slow approach, Zhvania had faced
opposition from cabinet `hawks,’ including recently named Defense
Minister Irakli Okruashvili, who, in his previous capacity as interior
minister, led Georgian troops into an ultimately unsuccessful foray into
South Ossetia in August 2004.

`He [Zhvania] spared no efforts to cease the Georgian aggression in the
summer of 2004,’ South Ossetian separatist leader Eduard Kokoiti said in
a press statement. `We hope that his death will not affect the process
of [peace] talks.’

Without Zhvania, noted Usupashvili, the `balancing act’ between
ministers who owed their political loyalties to Saakashvili and Zhvania
will be harder to maintain. That conflict most recently came to light in
December, when State Minister for European Integration Giorgi Baramidze,
a Zhvania protégé and former defense minister, publicly sparred with
Okruashvili, a Saakashvili protégé. Okruashvili recently replaced
Baramidze as defense minister amid an investigation of reported
corruption within the Defense Ministry.

`Zhvania’s group and Saakashvili’s group had some internal intrigues and
checks and balances,’ Usupashvili said. `I don’t think anyone can
replace Zhvania as the leader of Zhvania’s political group.’

Editor’s Note: Elizabeth Owen is EurasiaNet.org’s regional news
coordinator in Tbilisi.