A Death in Georgia

Intelligence Brief

Stratfor.com
February 3, 2005

By Marla Dial

The prime minister of Georgia, Zurab Zhvania, was found dead early
Feb. 3 in a friend’s apartment — the victim of an apparent gas
leak. Zhvania’s death, which will be investigated by the FBI as well
as local authorities, raises political concerns both in and around
Georgia.

The former Soviet republic, a key land bridge between the Caspian and
Black seas, is an important pawn in the rapidly accelerating Great
Game still being waged by Russia and the United States. A Georgia
where Russian influence holds sway allows Moscow to project power into
the Middle East, whereas a pro-U.S. regime means Tbilisi can cut
Russia off from any potential allies to the south. Iran and Turkey
also seek to influence opinion in Georgia’s power circles.

What, if anything, this political backdrop has to do with the death of
Zhvania remains to be seen. Security forces found the prime minister’s
body in the home of Raul Yusupov, the deputy governor of the
Kvemo-Kartli region. Yusupov also died; both men apparently having
suffocated on fumes from a small heater that was in use, though foul
play has not been ruled out.

In this case, disguising a murder as an accident — by sabotaging a
space heater so that it would emit carbon monoxide, for instance —
would not have been difficult, and sources in Georgia say many actors,
from hard-line nationalists to organized crime groups, might have had
reason to want Zhvania dead.

The deaths appear to have unsettled Georgian President Mikhail
Saakashvili, a passionate nationalist who has consistently defied and
annoyed Moscow since taking office. Saakashvili, who temporarily
assumed the prime ministership for himself, relied heavily upon the
advice of the more sober-minded and tactical Zhvania. According to a
source in the Georgian Interior Ministry, Saakashvili has requested
personal protection from the United States in the wake of Zhvania’s
death — highlighting concerns that the prime minister’s demise could
have been more than accidental.

Even if Zhvania’s death proves to be nothing more sinister, the
consequences could be great. The last powerful Georgian leader to die
was Zviad Gamsakhurdia, in 1993. His death left the state in political
limbo until Eduard Shevardnadze took power — and in the process of
solidifying control, waged two wars against separatist provinces.

With separatist movements (backed by Russia) still lingering in the
provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and given the number of other
players — both domestic and foreign — who take an interest in
Georgia, any perception of instability in Tbilisi could be enough to
prompt any one of them to make a move.