Azeri analyst cautiously optimistic about US policy on Karabakh
Yeni Musavat, Baku
3 Feb 05
An Azerbaijani political analyst has said that recent statements by US
President George Bush on resolving conflicts in the post-Soviet area
raise cautious optimism that the USA and Russia will make a serious
effort to find a settlement to the conflict between Azerbaijan and
Armenia over the disputed territory of Nagornyy Karabakh. In an
interview with Yeni Musavat daily, former Azerbaijani foreign minister
Tofiq Zulfuqarov said that events in Georgia and Ukraine showed that
the West was already pursuing an active policy in the region. The
following is the text of Kanan Rovsanoglu report by Azerbaijani
newspaper Yeni Musavat on 3 February headlined “Russia must review its
policy” and subheaded “Tofiq Zulfuqarov ‘The West is already pursuing
its policy in the post-Soviet countries'”; subheadings have been
inserted editorially:
The first month of the year was notable for several interesting
developments concerning Nagornyy Karabakh. US President George Bush
stated in his inaugural speech for a second term of office that he
would try to resolve conflicts in the post-Soviet countries; a
resolution on Nagornyy Karabakh was passed at the Parliamentary
Assembly of the Council of Europe [PACE]; a mission to investigate
cases of settlement in the occupied territories started work; and
finally, the US State Department issued a statement on the
conflict. Is all this enough to say that peace talks will be
intensified in 2005? We tried to find answers to these and similar
questions in an interview with former foreign minister Tofiq
Zulfuqarov.
PACE resolution
[Interviewer] Tofiq bay [form of address], we would like to know what
you think of the PACE resolution? How will this document affect the
negotiations and how will it benefit Azerbaijan?
[Zulfuqarov] Some terms in the part of the resolution dealing with the
assessment of the situation are very positive. Wording is very
important in negotiations and political statements. Wording and terms
used reflect countries’ positions. It is positive that international
organizations use words testifying to the Armenians’ being
occupiers. I also view as positive and in Azerbaijan’s favour that
public representatives of the PACE member states confirm this. PACE is
quite an influential organization in Europe. Therefore, the document
is of great importance.
The resolution does not have a direct link to the negotiations,
because PACE is not involved in the peace process. But in any case a
document that reflects the stance of the European community will
affect the process.
[Interviewer] Some people say that some points in the resolution are
not favourable to Azerbaijan and warn that there will be problems
later on. This is basically a reference to the recommendation that
Azerbaijan should start unconditional negotiations with Karabakh
Armenians… [ellipses as published]
[Zulfuqarov] The Armenian community of Karabakh was a party to the
negotiations under the mandate of the [OSCE] Minsk Group until
1997. But the [Karabakh] Armenians were unhappy with that format and
wanted to be party to the negotiations at the same level as
Azerbaijan. In fact, this recommendation goes against the Armenians,
because the Azerbaijani side has said many times that it is ready to
negotiate with the Armenian community. Such negotiations have been
under way for a long time within the framework of the Minsk Group. At
the moment Azerbaijan is ready for that format. If the discussions are
held according to the Minsk Group format, there cannot be any
conditions attached to contacts with representatives of the Armenian
community.
“Signs”
[Interviewer] Some say that activity in the Karabakh talks and
international attention to the problem will increase in 2005. One
month of the year has gone by. Are you observing any activity?
[Zulfuqarov] There are signs. The most serious are the statements by
US President George Bush and other leaders of the new [US]
administration clearly setting out the main directions of that
country’s foreign policy. The statements stress that conflicts that
have lasted for years in the post-Soviet countries should be
resolved. And the USA wants to cooperate with Russia on that issue.
This is a term containing a very serious meaning. In other words,
Washington wants the Kremlin to have an explicit and unambiguous
attitude to conflicts and their joint resolution. This is more or less
how I understand those statements. It is true that we saw similar
statements before. But now there is more confidence that the USA and
Russian will exert joint efforts to resolve the problem.
[Interviewer] Do you think that the USA will manage to change Russia’s
position and secure its sincere involvement in the resolution of the
conflict?
[Zulfuqarov] Generally, I believe that very serious developments are
taking place in the post-Soviet countries. The changes of power in
Georgia and Ukraine, as well as attitudes to elections in other
republics, show that the West is already pursuing its policy in the
post-Soviet countries. Naturally, democracy and the establishment of
civil society are very important issues. But one of the most important
issues for us is to liberate our occupied territories and see our
refugees return to their lands. From this viewpoint I believe that the
pressure applied by the West on the parties to the conflict and Russia
should yield results, because the Bush administration has said it will
pursue a serious policy to reach the specified goals. This insistence
has proved successful in other regions. Let us hope that the policy on
conflicts will also bear fruit. I do not believe that Russia will opt
for confrontation with the West. Therefore, Moscow will accept the
cooperation to be offered.
“Promising elements”
[Interviewer] However, the Russian co-chairman [of the OSCE Minsk
Group], Yuriy Merzlyakov, has said that the conflict will not be
resolved this year and that there will be some progress in the
negotiations in the years to come. Do you expect any progress shortly?
[Zulfuqarov] The prolongation of the conflict has made the Azerbaijani
public feel somehow accustomed to pessimism. The long absence of any
progress in the negotiations gives certain ground for this. But there
are hopes, too. Among the promising elements, as I have mentioned, are
statements showing the intention of the West to resolve the
problem. The Russian foreign minister [Sergey Lavrov] is visiting
Azerbaijan. It cannot be ruled out that a similar statement will be
made during the visit. Russia is also co-chairing the OSCE Minsk
Group. Like us, they are watching US statements closely. Therefore, I
think some statements are possible during the visit. In any case, I
would like Moscow to issue statements that show a more serious
position on the issue, because the recent statement by Russian
officials that “Azerbaijan and Armenia should resolve the conflict
themselves” cannot be taken seriously.
[Interviewer] The US and Russian presidents are due to meet this
month. Can there be any connection between the visit of the Russian
foreign minister and US plans in the run-up to the meeting?
[Zulfuqarov] The visit is being paid on the eve of the Bratislava
meeting between Bush and [Vladimir] Putin. Reports have been leaked
that conflicts in the post-Soviet countries will be on the agenda of
the meeting. Naturally, there are more conflicts in the South
Caucasus. The visit of the Russian foreign minister to the South
Caucasus before the meeting may be somehow tied to the
issue. Naturally, other issues such as Russian-Azerbaijani relations,
the status of the Caspian and the situation in the region will be
discussed. But I believe that Karabakh will be the focus of the
discussions.