GEORGIAN GOVERNMENT STRESSES STABILITY AS SEARCH FOR NEW PRIME
MINISTER BEGINS
Eurasia Insight
EurasiaNet.org
2/04/05
By Elizabeth Owen
The search for a replacement for Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania, who died
February 3 of carbon-monoxide poisoning, is underway. Political analysts
in Tbilisi say there is `no obvious candidate’ that can match Zhvania’s
technocratic skills.
President Mikheil Saakashvili is expected to nominate a replacement for
prime minister by February 10. A state funeral for Zhvania will be held
at the newly constructed Holy Trinity Cathedral in Tbilisi on February
6. Saakashvili’s cabinet, meeting in a late-night session February 3,
reportedly considered several prime ministerial candidates, the Civil
Georgia website reported. While most political figures continue to
emphasize the difficulty of replacing the prime minister, some Georgian
media outlets have speculated on the leading contenders. In its February
4 edition, for example, the daily Rezonansi reported that the top
candidates to head the government included Defense Minister Irakli
Okruashvili, State Minister for European Integration Giorgi Baramidze,
State Minister for Economic Reform Issues Kakha Bendukidze and
Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze.
Few analysts in Tbilisi appeared to put much faith in such reports. `You
can’t take the stupid speculations of the Georgian media seriously,’
said Levan Ramishvili, director of the Liberty Institute. Ramishvili
also dismissed reports of a potential cabinet split prior to Zhvania’s
death.
Ramishvili is just one of many political analysts in Tbilisi who
emphasize that Georgia lacks a natural successor to Zhvania, who
possessed the most political and administrative experience of any member
of Saakashvili’s reformist administration.
Devi Khechinashvili, president of the Partnership for Social
Initiatives, a public policy think tank, contended that one government
leader who could at least replicate Zhvania’s independence is
Bendukidze, who oversees economic reforms. An influential businessman,
Bendukidze returned last year to his native Georgia after nearly a
decade in Russia. During his tenure in 2004 as economics minister,
Bendukidze’s proved an effective policy planner, but his advocacy of an
aggressive privatization campaign generated considerable controversy.
`He has no network here, he is a guy by himself, he has power by
himself, and he can push things through, but he will have no political
ambitions,’ said Khechinashvili.
Georgian newspaper reports have also focused on Defense Minister
Okruashvili as a leading candidate to replace Zhvania. Though
Khechinashvili agreed that Okruashvili’s close ties to the president
could enhance his chances, he expressed doubt that the 31-year-old
defense minister, often portrayed as the most radical member of the
Saakashvili administration, would accept the post of prime minister if
nominated.
`His [current] position is very powerful, and he is concentrated on a
main priority of this government [modernization of the military
according to North Atlantic Treaty Organization norms]. So what is the
rationale [for him] to deal with social or economic issues right now?’
Khechinashvili said. `It is much easier to upgrade the military than it
is the social sphere or economy.’
Ultimately, how the government navigates the transfer of power to a new
prime minister will prove critical to the reform process, both analysts
said. The most immediate impact of Zhvania’s death will be on the speed
of reforms, Ramishvili said. `We have to revise the division of powers
between the president and the prime minister. The president will have to
take on more strategic and tactical responsibilities to make sure that
the government continues on with reforms,’ Ramishvili said. With Zhvania
gone, the powers of the ruling party could become more concentrated,
added Khechinashvili, but how that will affect the quality of reforms is
unknown.
With the country still in shock over Zhvania’s passing, government
leaders remain intent on projecting an image of stability. Foreign
Minister Salome Zourabichvili announced that she, along with
Saakashvili, who has assumed much of Zhvania’s responsibilities on an
interim basis, would fulfill all of Zhvania’s scheduled appointments in
the coming days, the Russian agency Regnum.ru reported. Top government
ministers, meanwhile, stressed in televised statements that key
political and economic policies would not change.
Authorities also sought to reassure Georgians that Zhvania’s death was
accidental. The US Federal Bureau of Investigation has agreed to help
Georgian investigators, and will perform `biological and chemical tests’
to determine `the exact cause’ of Zhvania’s death, Rustavi-2 television
channel reported February 4.
The circumstances surrounding Zhvania’s death have prompted various
conspiracy theories among Georgians. For example, as news of Zhvania’s
death was still spreading, Alexander Shalamberidze, a member of
parliament, claimed publicly that Russia was behind both the recent
car-bombing in Gori and Zhvania’s death, and that the two events were
linked. Russian diplomats have adamantly denied involvement in the two
incidents. Meanwhile, Georgian Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili and
General Prosecutor Zurab Adeishvili dismissed rumors of foul play.
To downplay speculation about the cause of Zhvania’s death, Merabishvili
and Adeishvili showed Georgian journalists late February 3 a one-minute
video tape with footage from the apartment where Zhvania and his friend,
Raul Usupov, the deputy governor of the Kvemo Kartli region, were found.
Both men were shown stretched out on the floor of Usupov’s apartment
after artificial respiration had been unsuccessfully performed, the
Civil Georgia website reported.
Editor’s Note: Elizabeth Owen is EurasiaNet.org’s regional news
coordinator in Tbilisi.