The Messenger, Georgia
Feb 4 2005
Lavrov’s forthcoming Georgia visit
Many hope that Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov
scheduled visit to Tbilisi on February 18 will witness an improvement
in the much strained relations between Russia and Georgia, though
others are more skeptical and do not expect any breakthrough. Georgia
is the minister’s last stop on a South Caucasian tour and only after
he returns to Moscow will it be possible to speak about any possible
changes in Russia’s policy towards the Caucasus.
Lavrov’s tour in the Caucasus begins in Azerbaijan, where he will
discuss the prospects of bilateral relations, reformation of CIS
structures, the conflicts that exist in the Caucasus, particularly
Karabakh, and fighting against international terrorism and
transnational organized crime. In addition, a visit of Azerbaijani
President Ilham Aliev to Moscow is being planned for the end of
February.
Having good relations with Azerbaijan is very important for Russia.
Likewise, Ilham Aliev also tries to improve relations with Moscow.
Analysts are particularly interested to see what comes of the two
sides discussion regarding the Karabakh conflict. Russian support for
its traditional ally Armenia in this conflict helped to ensure its
victory, but it is speculated that Russia may demonstrate greater
support for Baku’s cause, perhaps as a result of alleged cooler
relations with Armenia.
Perhaps Moscow is trying to regulate the issue of Karabakh so that
both Armenia and Azerbaijan will be satisfied. But if this does
happen, analysts question what Moscow might benefit from brokering a
deal which would leave Armenia less dependent on Russia and more
flexible in terms of foreign policy.
Karabakh will not be the only topic on the agenda when Lavrov moves
on to Yerevan. There, as in Tbilisi, discussion of reopening the rail
route between Russia and Armenia, particularly after Azerbaijan
recently strengthened its blockade of Armenia so that cargo from
Azerbaijan cannot enter Georgia if it is ultimately destined for
Armenia, will dominate the agenda. The new Kavkaz-Poti ferry route is
unlikely to ease Armenia’s transportation problems much, and so
reopening the route remains of great importance.
But although Georgia has expressed readiness to consider the
rehabilitation of the Tbilisi-Sokhumi leg of the railway, there seems
little likelihood of this happening in the near future. The most
serious stumbling block is the Georgian government’s continuing
demands that Georgian refugees be allowed to return to Abkhazia
before any repairs can take place on the railway.
Resolving Georgia’s conflicts with Abkhazia and South Ossetia will
top the agenda of discussions in Tbilisi. The Georgian government
continues to complain of Russian hypocrisy with regard to the
conflicts – recognizing the territorial integrity of Georgia in word
but doing all it can to annex parts of the country in deed – and it
will hope that it can persuade to act on its statements and show
active support for the restoration of its territorial integrity.
However, despite Saakashvili’s Strasbourg proposals regarding the
peaceful resolution of the South Ossetian conflict, little is
expected to change in the situation, although some experts continue
to hope that behind-the-scenes negotiations may lead Moscow to change
its attitude towards Georgia. Lately, a large amount of Russian
capital has entered Georgia and in Strasbourg, during discussions
about Georgia, Russian representative displayed a surprisingly
constructive position with regard to Georgia.
In addition to the unregulated conflicts, a number of other problems
have also accumulated in Georgian-Russian relations. The issue of
Russian military base withdrawal has yet to move forward after years
of negotiations. Moscow demands 13 years for the process, but the
Georgian side regards that it will need less time. Without the
support of the West, however, this issue is unlikely to be resolved.
Some experts regard that the visa regime in place between the two
countries is more important than the issue of base withdrawal. This
regime makes it difficult for Georgian citizens to enter Russia and
as of this year, the price of a Russian visa has increased. At the
same time the Russian market is extremely important for Georgia.
Caspian oil will be one of the main issues of Lavrov’s tour in the
Caucasus. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline is set to begin
operation this year and the issue of transporting Azerbaijani gas to
Turkey and Iranian gas to Europe is also slated for discussion.
Georgia is vitally important in all of these issues.
The issue of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Tbilisi is
likely to be agreed upon during Lavrov’s visit. Putin was to visit
Georgia last year, but his trip was postponed. However, Putin may
visit Georgia in the near future to sign important documents; but
although the Russian-Georgian frame agreement is named among them, it
is difficult to imagine that such an agreement could be signed in the
current climate of hostility.