Azeri expert downplays Russia’s efforts to keep CIS alive

Yeni Musavat, Baku
4 Feb 05

Text of Kanan report by Azerbaijani newspaper Yeni Musavat on 4
February headlined “Putin will not manage to resurrect the CIS” and
“Rasim Musabayov: ‘Azerbaijan’s membership of the Collective Security
Treaty Organization is impossible'”

Putin’s Russia is doing its best to keep the CIS, the only alliance of
post-Soviet countries, alive. The only entity led by that country is
the CIS. But experts predict that the CIS, which is getting weaker
year by year, will no longer be used in the political language soon.

It cannot but worry our northern neighbour. Putin’s Russia is
increasingly concerned, especially after the democratic changes in
Ukraine and Georgia. The Putin administration is using every available
resource to preserve his country’s influence on the neighbouring
states. Our northern neighbour’s activity in the CIS has been
especially intensive after it suffered a setback in Ukraine.

Some observers are saying that Moscow is trying to use Azerbaijan to
compensate for its failure in Ukraine. First, Putin is trying to
incorporate the weak Azerbaijani authorities into his
military-political bloc. The recent visits to Azerbaijan by Russian
officials are said to be related to this fact. Incidentally, Russian
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov paid an official visit to Baku several
days ago, and [Azerbaijani President] Ilham Aliyev is expected to
visit Russia soon. At the same time, there are reports that Putin will
visit Azerbaijan, too. Reports also say that discussions during
Lavrov’s visit were held on the CIS and the prospects of Azerbaijan’s
entry into the Collective Security Treaty Organization [CSTO].

Commenting on these developments, political analyst Rasim Musabayov
noted that Russia is doing its utmost to preserve the exhausted
CIS. Our interviewee is confident that these efforts will be futile.

“The CIS is an entity that Russia is using to save face in the
post-Soviet countries, and therefore, it is trying to preserve it in
any form in order to use it to control the neighbouring countries. But
its efforts have been fruitless for the past five years.”

The analyst said that Azerbaijan’s entry into the CSTO is made
difficult by Armenia, which is waging a war against Azerbaijan. “On
the other side, Azerbaijan has not benefited so far from its
membership of the entity [CIS]. Third, “Azerbaijan’s historic ally,
Turkey, is not a member of the CSTO, and therefore, our membership of
this organization is impossible”.

However, the expert does not believe that any of the member states
will quit the CIS states at the moment, because formal membership of
this “toothless” entity does not hamper the policy of any
state. That’s why, member states do not think it necessary to take
this step.

“The present activity of the CIS is not a burden for member states.
Turkmenistan almost never takes part in CIS meetings. In other words,
it does not matter to any of the republics whether they are members of
this organization or not. At present, the Commonwealth has turned into
an entity whose members meet once a year and talk about this and
that.”

Musabayov believes that the CIS will continue its work for a certain
period of time, but will never become a serious and sustainable
organization. “Because neither Ukraine and Georgia, nor Moldova and
Azerbaijan want the CIS to become a strong organization. Therefore,
Russia cannot strengthen this entity. But it is possible to think up
certain formats in which the CIS can be kept alive. For example,
Great Britain unites several states in the Commonwealth of
Nations. France and Spain also keep similar entities. They meet once a
year and discuss certain issues. It cannot be ruled out that the CIS
may be preserved in that form. But as I said, Georgia, Ukraine,
Azerbaijan and Moldova will be against this. These countries see their
future in integration into Europe and NATO. I do not believe that
Russia will be able to change this reality.”