Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
February 7, 2005, Monday

WHY DID LAVROV VISIT BAKU

by WPS observer

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Azerbaijan finished
last week. Making preparations for opening of the Year of Azerbaijan
in Russia on February 16 was the formal cause for the visit. It is
intended that Vladimir Putin and Ilkham Aliyev will open the
celebrations, however, many observers state that Lavrov’s visit to
Baku was linked with Moscow’s initiatives in the sector of
integration in the post-Soviet republics. To all appearances, the
Russian and Azerbaijanian leaders will discuss these issues in the
Russian capital. The victory of the “orange revolution” in Ukraine
has shown that Russia is losing its influence in the CIS. In the
meantime, Azerbaijan where clans close to the Aliyev family managed
to suppress protests and create the succession of the political
system intends to enlist Moscow’s support in order to prevent the
Ukrainian or Georgian scenario.

The Karabakh problem is another probable objective of Baku’s
intention to integrate with Moscow. Azerbaijanian officials denied
reports that Lavrov discussed the prospects of Azerbaijan joining the
Organization of the collective security treaty in Baku. To all
appearances, Baku does not rule out military operations against
Nagorny Karabakh, and intends to activate military contacts with
Russia on a bilateral basis. At the same time, Azerbaijan does not
forget about NATO.

Moscow’s comments on integration processes between Azerbaijan and
NATO were neutral. Sergei Lavrov stated that Baku must determine the
form of co-operation with NATO. He noted that Moscow also makes
contacts with the alliance.

In the meantime, Russia supports Armenia, which has been defending
Nagorny Karabakh for almost 15 years. On the other hand, Moscow
states that the Karabakh conflict must be resolved as soon as
possible. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that in
Slavonic University in Baku on February 2 that “we help the sides
find solutions to the crisis proceeding from the people’s interests.
We are pleased that the Armenian and Azerbaijanian foreign ministers
have resumed contacts within the framework of the Prague process.”

In the meantime, tension in the region increases, and both sides are
prepared to use force. The military budgets have increased in Armenia
and Azerbaijan. Baku states that it may use force for solving the
Karabakh problem. Under these circumstances, Karabakh and Armenia are
forced to prepare for defending their territory. Sergei Oganyan,
Defense Minister of Nagorny Karabakh, stated that servicemen’s wages
will increase in 2005. The leadership will also focus on solving the
housing problem. The command of the army will focus on
military-patriotic education of younger generations. Public
structures will participate in this process. The command of the army
will analyze the experience of the partisan war in the first phase of
the Azerbaijanian-Karabakh confrontation. This means that if
Azerbaijan ventures to use force the war will be very long. The
conflicting sides are prepared for this.

Azerbaijan enlisted the support of US. President George W. Bush sent
the Memorandum to prolong the suspension of the 907th amendments to
the Freedom Act, which bans military aid to Azerbaijan, to the US
state secretary in January 2005. According to the document, the US
made this decision because of Azerbaijan’s assistance in combating
terrorism. This document “is aimed at increasing the security of
Azerbaijan’s border”. The US leader stated that this decision would
not hinder negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In other
words, Azerbaijan will receive substantial resources, which will be
spent on supporting its army.

In this regard, Elizabeth Jones’ statement about the necessity of
neutralizing the criminal regimes in the Trans-Dniester territory,
Abkhazia, Southern Ossetia and Nagorny Karabakh was to the point.
Washington again reiterated its position to the world, “Washington’s
policy towards the conflict in Nagorny Karabakh has not changed. The
US does not consider Nagorny Karabakh as an independent state, and
the international community and the United States does not
acknowledge its leadership. The US supports Azerbaijan’s territorial
integrity and thinks that the status of Nagorny Karabakh must be
determined by means of negotiations within the framework of the Minsk
process. The US is involved in the process of peaceful settling of
the conflict. We welcome negotiations between the Armenian and
Azerbaijanian foreign ministers.”

On the one hand, there is nothing blameworthy in these words. The US
supports peace but this statement can be interpreted in different
ways in the context of events happening in Baku. This may become a
weighty argument for unleashing war.

Why is the US interested in this affair? Many analysts agree that the
US is interested in Azerbaijan as a beachhead for delivering strikes
on Iran. This is why Washington supports Baku.

We hope that the Azerbaijanian leadership will be reasonable and
tolerant, and that the Russian leaders and US will make important
decisions regarding the Karabakh conflict at the summit in February
where the presidents intend to discuss the issue of conflicts in the
post-Soviet republics. Otherwise, the situation may lead to
recommencement of hostilities.

Translated by Alexander Dubovoi