Analyst takes dim view of Azerbaijan’s plight if USA attacks Iran

Yeni Musavat, Baku
10 Feb 05

Excerpt from report by Elsad in Azerbaijani newspaper Yeni Musavat
on 10 February headlined “The destruction of Iran’s nuclear assets
promises serious threats to the region”; subheaded “Azerbaijan has
face a very awkward situation”

“Had Iran owned nuclear weapons, it could have become as strong as
Russia and Turkey in the region. As it does not, Tehran is helpless
before Russia and NATO in the person of Turkey [as published]. Iran
might enjoy the same status as these states and protect its interests
if it had the weapons,” political analyst Vafa Quluzada has said.

He thinks that this is the main reason why Tehran does not give up
its nuclear ambitions.

[Passage omitted: Iran to target Israel first in case of military
operations]

The analyst regarded as realistic the possibility of a horrible strike
on Iran right on the border with Azerbaijan.

“If the US-Iranian conflict is resolved peacefully, Azerbaijan will
benefit from that as much as anyone else.”

[Passage omitted: Quluzada describes the current situation as tense
and complicated]

Commenting on the situation in which Azerbaijan found itself, he
said that it was extremely awkward. “On the one hand, 20 per cent
of our lands are under occupation. On the other hand, all monitoring
missions and negotiations are aimed at pulling the wool over people’s
eyes. Neither Azerbaijan, nor Georgia nor Armenia would, of course,
want a new war in the region. It is not known which of the countries
will be affected by radiation, if the USA attacks Iran’s nuclear
reactor. All the three South Caucasus countries are under this threat,”
he said.

The analyst thinks that Azerbaijan might not impact on the course of
operations even if it does not join a [US] coalition. “Azerbaijan is
not a great power and Iran has nothing to lose if Azerbaijan decides
not to join the coalition. The USA might not create it [presumably,
the coalition] either. Let people not think about Iraq. It is a
different country. The point is about air strikes on Iran’s nuclear
facilities. There is no need for the coalition.”

Quluzada does not believe that Azerbaijan is among the countries
which the USA has chosen as a target.

“Azerbaijan is innocent when Iran is concerned and no attacks on Iran
will be launched from our country,” he said.