THE DEATH OF LEBANESE EX-PREMIER MAY HAVE DANGEROUS CONSEQUENCES FOR BEIRUT ARMENIANS

PanArmenian News Analysis
Feb 16 2005

As a result of the intensification of the conflict between the main
communities of Lebanon, Armenian community may lose the current
political influence in the country.

The President of Armenia Robert Kocharyan and Prime Minister Andranik
Margaryan presented their condolences to the President of Lebanon
Emil Lahoud on the murder of the country’s ex-Prime Minister Rafik
Hariri. Armenian leaders were on friendly terms with the prominent
Lebanese politician. Friendly relations strengthened especially during
last year’s visit of Hariri to Yerevan. Armenian authorities realize
that the tragic death of the former Prime Minister may a negative
impact on the status of the influential Armenian community of Lebanon.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ 60 years old multi-millionaire Hariri whom in late
70s “Forbes” magazine included in the list of the hundred richest
people of the planet, has made a significant contribution to the
recovery of the country’s economy. Twice the head of the government,
the politician last left the post of the Prime Minister in November
2004 due to contradictions with President Emil Lahoud who managed to
stay in power thanks to the amendment in the constitution. Being in
opposition, Hariri took the task of uniting all the forces who insisted
on the immediate withdrawal of Syrian troops from the territory of
Lebanon. Sunnite Hariri was supported by politicians representing
various parties, ethnic and religious groups, the leaders of Druz
community, the former commander of the army of Christians Michelle
Aoun and even representatives of the Maronite Christian community
represented by Lahoud himself. Analysts supposed that thanks to
Rafik Hariri the opposition could win in the upcoming parliamentary
elections. Now, after his death, nobody tries to make any predictions.

Hariri’s victory would change the geopolitical situation because he
would surely achieve the withdrawal of Syrian troops. Supporters of
Hariri as well as some forces in Israel and USA blame Syria for the
incident. It is obvious that the act of terrorism will be used by
Washington against Damask together with other sanctions. This will
increase the possibility of taking military measures against Syria
by the United States. Armenia cannot be indifferent to the situation
that is being formed in Lebanon and Syria since those countries are
inhabited by hundred thousands of Armenians.

Armenian community of Lebanon has always strived to keep neutrality
and normal relations with all the political forces. However Emil Lahoud
has always been more popular for Armenians than Rafik Hariri. This is
not because Lahoud is a Christian and Hariri – a Muslim and even not
because Lahoud’s mother and wife are Armenians. The thing is that being
Prime Minister Hariri broke the 1976 agreement on the principles of
forming power. The Constitution of Lebanon was created on the basis of
the mentioned document that put an end to the civil war. The agreement
stipulated the representation of ethnic and religious communities in
the government. (As it is known, besides Sunnite Arabs, Shiite Arabs,
Maronite Arabs and Armenians there are also Kurds, Assyrians and Jews
living in the country). The representation of the Armenian community
is realized by two ministerial posts and five deputy mandates. However,
in 2002 Hariri decided to reduce the number of ministries and deprived
one ministerial post of the Armenian community. In the government he
kept only Dashnak Sepouh Hovnanyan who occupied the insignificant post
of the Minister of Sport and Youth Affairs. This arouse indignation
among Armenian community. After the last year’s visit of Hariri to
Yerevan the contradictions toned down. Nevertheless he did not keep
his word. Lahoud returned the second ministerial post to Armenians
only after Hariri’s resignation.

The situation being formed in Lebanon is extremely dangerous for
Armenian community. The positions of Emil Lahoud have distinctly
weakened. It is hard to say whether we will manage to keep control
over the situation in the country. There is a serious thread of a
new civil war. The confrontation between Sunnites and Maronites can
force the political elite of Lebanon to reject the requirements of the
1976 agreement. In this case it will be very difficult for Armenian
community to preserve its current political influence in the country.

Artyom Yerkanyan

–Boundary_(ID_mn5Q4BHBoWpR6mXVpzE/FA)–