Lebanon: A Cedar Revolution to Counter Russian Missiles For Damascus
By K Gajendra Singh

Al-Jazeera.Info, USA
Feb 18 2005

Al-Jazeerah, February 18, 2005

The US attempt to organize a franchised ‘Cedar’ revolution in Lebanon
, like the Orange revolution in Ukraine and the Rose revolution in
Georgia , is to counter Moscow’s return into Middle East . Russia
would be soon delivering short range missiles to Damascus , to ease
US pressure in Ukraine , Georgia and elsewhere . The sale of missiles
to Syria was finalized during Syrian President Basher Assad’s recent
visit to Moscow. But it could ignite the most inflammable tinderbox
in the region , Lebanon ,which saw its polity and economy stabilised
and rebuilt over the last 15 years following a 15 years of civil war
from 1976 .The consequences would be horrendous . The mayhem of the
civil war had added ‘Lebanonisation’ to the lexicon
Following the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Shafiq
Hariri in Beirut on 14 February , almost spontaneous demonstrations ,
outcries followed by quick US actions like recall of its Ambassador
from Damascus , which has been blamed for the bomb blasts killing
Harari , by innuendo , implication and even directly by some US
lawmakers, as usual cheer led by US led corporate media , looks too
familiar , coming as it does when Russia is to transfer low range
missiles to Damascus .

The organized spontaneity and the cacophony of opposition noises in
Lebanon look like other recent franchised revolutions , in Georgia
and in Ukraine , apart from overthrow of Milosevic in Serbia. While
Europe Union openly sided with USA in the orange revolution in
Ukraine , which will adversely affect its relations with Russia ,this
time France , a former colonial power in Syria and Lebanon joined
Washington,
“If Syria was involved, the move would represent an act of
uncharacteristically brazen recklessness on the part of a regime
instinctively cautious in matters involving its own survival.”, said
Time magazine .Having spent decades in the region the author knows
the Syrians to be sophisticated operators .By having a hand in the
killing of Hariri Syria would not like to commit Harakiri , now under
daily pressure from US and Israel , the latter intrudes into its
sovereign air space and occupies its Golan Heights since 1967
war.,President Assad condemned Hariri’s killing as a “horrible
terrorist act,” but that did not dim the ire of Lebanese opposition
groups and the Bush administration.Syrian forces first arrived in
Beirut in 1976, eventually enforcing a fragile peace between rival
Lebanese factions and armed Palestinian refugees, and running the
country as Syria’s backyard ever since. It now keeps about 15,000
troops in the Beka’a valley. Fresh Lebanese elections are scheduled
for May, and Hariri was under mounting pressure to take the lead in
an opposition campaign to rally a vote for ousting Syrian troops.
Attempts are being made to unite all anti-Syrian factions which
fought a devastating civil war between 1975 and 1990. Christians,
Druze, and Shia and Sunni Muslims were in the funeral procession
numbering in over a hundred thousand . The US assistant secretary of
state, William Burns, who attended the funeral, said Hariri’s death
must give renewed impetus to achieving a free, independent and
sovereign Lebanon, and “what that means is the complete and immediate
withdrawal by Syria of all of its forces in Lebanon”.
The US, with the backing of France, pushed through UN Security
Council resolution 1559 in September, calling on Syria to withdraw
its troops. Jacques Chirac, the French president, a personal friend
of Hariri, flew to Beirut to offer his condolences. He praised Hariri
for his fight for democracy and independence. Lebanon government has
resisted pressure for an international investigation on the murder,
but has invited Swiss explosives experts to help.
Resolution 1559 has been strenuously resisted not only by Syria, but
also by the pro-Damascus Lebanese authorities, particularly President
Emile Lahoud. The White House spokesman, Scott McClellan, said that
Hariri’s murder was “an attempt to stifle these efforts to build an
independent, sovereign Lebanon, free of foreign domination.” Eyes are
now turned to the Security Council to see if a new resolution is
passed, perhaps imposing more sanctions on Syria.. Russia is angry
with US and will not cooperate nor would perhaps China.

President Assad’s extension of Lahoud’s mandate last September –
triggered the confrontation between Syria and the opposition – is
seen as a sign of firmness in facing up to American and French
pressures. Lebanese government officials and Syrian allies have
accused the opposition of being in the pocket of the United States
and Israel.

It appears that Hariri was leaning toward formally joining the
opposition, which he had hesitated to do. Apart from having in the
most prominent Lebanese Sunni, widening the opposition front’s
multi-sectarian base; it would also have brought Hariri’s ample purse
to support opposition in the elections next spring. “Hariri was the
natural cornerstone of a post-Syrian-withdrawal shadow
government.”BBC re-telecast a “Hard Talk” interview after 11
September, 2001 in which Hariri refused to declare Hizbullah a
terrorist organization and instead declared Israel an enemy.Syria has
cultivated politicians from all ends of the sectarian divide, and
controlling Lebanon’s own intelligence and security services. More
than visions of historic “Greater Syria” concept” there are certainly
economic benefits for Syria to maintain control over its economically
dynamic neighbor whose progress and integration into the world
economy puts Syria’s own decrepit economy to shame. But Lebanon’s
primary importance to Damascus is its value as a strategic trump
card. The organizing principle of Syrian foreign policy over the past
four decades has been to find ways of pressuring Israel to return the
Golan Heights, occupied by Israel since the war of 1967. Syria’s
presence in Lebanon, and particularly its support for the Iran-backed
Hezbollah militia, became its key strategic bargaining chips with
Israel, its Lebanese proxies have posed a constant security on
Israel’s northern border for the past quarter century. Losing Lebanon
would strip a regime already dangerously isolated within the Arab
world of the last of its leverage in dealing with Israel. “said Time
magazine.The U.N. Security Council approved a statement urging the
Lebanese government to “bring to justice the perpetrators, organizers
and sponsors of this heinous terrorist act.” Lebanon’s interior
minister suggested a suicide bomber aided by “international parties”
may have been behind it.
Apart from a rogue Syrian intelligence operatives, even factions
among Lebanon’s myriad religious groups have been accused . Lebanese
authorities have described responsibility claims by previously
unknown Islamic militants as not credible.
In Washington for meetings with Vice President Dick Cheney and Ms
Rice, the Egyptian foreign minister, Ahmed About Gheit, said “it is
still premature to reach conclusions” about Hariri’s assassination.
Speaking at the Brookings Institution thinktank, Gheit said he hoped
it would not touch off a cycle of killings and push Lebanon into
civil war.
Real reason –Russian Misssiles for Syria ;On 16 February , Moscow
confirmed that it will sell a new air defence missile system to
Syria, overlooking Israeli concern followed by US objections. It said
it was only for close-range use and would not upset the balance of
military forces in the Middle East. The system would be mounted on
vehicles and could not be stripped down for man-portable
shoulder-launch use. “This type of system is not mobile, these are
not man-portable anti-aircraft systems, and without special means of
transport their use is impossible,” a Russian official said. He also
repeated Moscow’s recent denials of any plans to sell longer-range
tactical Iskander missiles to Syria, which could reach any target in
Israel , including its nuclear reactor Dimona.
“Negotiations are now taking place on delivery to Damascus of the
Strelets close-range anti-air system,” Interfax news agency quoted an
unnamed senior defence ministry official.
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said at a news conference on 16
February in Jerusalem that Israel was informed by Russia that a sale
of weapons to Syria would go ahead despite Israeli objections. “We
worry about that and we don’t think that that should have happened,”
he added .
Russian President Vladimir Putin said last month that the sale would
not upset the balance of power in the Middle East and that it
involved equipment that could solely be used for defensive purposes.
He said in an interview with daily the Jerusalem Post that “we won’t
bring to the region weapons that can be used by terrorists or that
can be transferred to terrorists without controls.”
Another country , Afghanistan also had foreign soldiers , which the
US led West and conservative Muslim regimes went to oust in 1979 and
to establish democracy .That country lies destroyed and shattered ,
even though the Soviet Russian troops left in 1989 .In came Talebans
and Al Qaida which stunned USA on September 11 , 2001 .Elections were
recently held in Afghanistan , over which US President George W, Bush
crowed , without “convincing” many except his media brain washed
supporters in USA .These could be conducted only with help from
democrat Gen Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan , where the opposition is
up in arms against his keeping on the military uniform . Gen
Musharraf persuaded the Mujahddins , Talebans and war lords to let
elections be held . He was promptly rewarded by USA in hundreds of
US$ millions of aid.
US Reaction to Hariris’s Death;
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice asked US allies to join in
pressurising Syria to end its presence in Lebanon and its support of
terrorism. She told the US Congress, if other countries “send Syria a
message” that its conduct is unacceptable, “then perhaps the Syrians
will start to worry more about their isolation . . . politically and
economically.” Rice said that the message sent by recalling the US
ambassador was “an important one, and we’ll see how they respond.”
She added that other measures were possible, saying, “We continue to
review what else we might do.” She did acknowledge that it was not
clear who was behind Hariri’s killing, but US administration argued
that Syria’s presence in Lebanon was responsible for such attacks.

The Syrians came in Damascus after an accord in 1976, while USA
invaded Syria’s neighbour Iraq against the wishes of the UN .It has
not given much convincing explanations for mayhem carried out in that
country . On Iraq , USA remains isolated , has shown little
accountability under Geneva conventions and the man who advised
ignoring the conventions will become like minister of interior in
other countries .
Ms Rice did admit that no other country imposed economic and trade
sanctions against Damascus, which the U.S. Congress did two years
ago. US threatened to impose more sanctions .But “there’s no doubt
that Syria is a big problem,” she told members of the Senate Foreign
Affairs Committee for 2006 budget discussions. Both Republicans and
Democrats on the committee told Rice that the United States should be
forceful in its dealings with Damascus. “I urge you not to let Syria
off the hook,” said Sen. George Allen

But Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., who grilled Rice during hearings ,
even questioning her integrity added a realty check .She said
Americans were told before the war on Iraq that U.S. allies would
help cover the cost of the mission, now estimated to total about $250
billion. In giving new aid to the coalition partners, including
Poland and Ukraine, “in essence, we’re paying them for what they
did,” Boxer said. “We were told there would be financial burden
sharing; and at the end of the day, there isn’t.”

Even the U.S. House of Representatives joined in condemning Syria (
as yet without any proof) , paid tribute to Rafik Hariri, and called
for Syria to withdraw troops from Lebanon. US troops are staying in
Iraq for stability not Syria’s in Lebanon.A resolution is under
consideration to honor Hariri but the session was devoted to
criticism of Syria’s continuing occupation of Lebanon. Another
Congressman recalled the demonstrations by Lebanese calling for
Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon as the key issue for Lebanon. “There
is no proof that Syria was directly responsible for this
assassination,” he said. “But there is no doubt that Syria has
remained in Lebanon far longer either than their mandate, or than in
the agreements under the Taif Accords of 1989.”Congressman Eliot
Engel, who wrote the Syria Accountability Act Congress approved last
year imposing sanctions on Damascus, has urged the Bush
administration to ensure that the Syria Accountability Act is fully
implemented. That law calls on Syria, among other things, to halt
support for terrorism, end its occupation of Lebanon, and stop
development of any weapons of mass destruction and ballistic
missiles. “It is clear to me, although the evidence is being
gathered, but I suspect that this assassination has some ties to
Damascus, to the regime in Damascus,” he noted. “The Syrians have
allowed Lebanon to destablize, and this is part and parcel of the
result.During her safari the Europeans listened and clapped politely
to Ms Rice , but were hardly overwhelmed with the marketing of the
same US agenda , only less stridently than the boss. She might be
considered eloquent but hardly convincing .
Iran – Syria United Front ;
Iran and Syria threatened daily by the Bush administration and the
Israel government, on 16 February formed a mutual self-defence pact
to confront the “threats” facing them. This was announced after a
meeting in Tehran between the Iranian vice-president, Mohammed Reza
Aref, and the Syrian prime minister, Naji al-Otari.” At this
sensitive point, the two countries require a united front due to
numerous challenges,” said Otari. Aref added: “We are ready to help
Syria on all grounds to confront threats.” Syria and Iran have been
together in the past too .
Of course while US leaders make conflicting statements on Iran’s
nuclear program ,Israeli Foreign Minister, Silvan Shalom, speaking in
London predicted that Tehran would have the knowledge to produce a
nuclear weapon within six months. He said that Iran was preparing
nuclear weapons that would be able to target “London, Paris and
Madrid” by the end of the decade. “We believe the Iranians will never
abandon their dreams” of nuclear weapons, Shalom said. “It is not
Israel’s problem any more, it is the world’s problem.” It is a
strange statement coming from Israel , which reportedly has over 100
nuclear bombs.Historical Background;

When the armies of Islam erupted from the Arabian desert and carved
an empire from the Atlantic to China in the 7th Century , Lebanon
with its mountains provided refuge for persecuted Christian and
Muslim sects alike. After Ottomans annexed the caliphate and
guardianship of Mecca and Medina in 16th century, the region became a
peaceful backwater until World War I. During Ottoman era Lebanon
evolved a social and political system of its own. Ottoman Aleppo or
Tripoli governed the north, Damascus the centre, and Sidon the south.
Coastal Lebanon and al-Biqah valley were usually ruled more directly
by Istanbul, while Mt. Lebanon enjoyed semiautonomous status.

But when Turkey sided with Germany in the First World War , Britain,
to protect its Indian possessions and the Suez Canal lifeline,
encouraged Arabs under Hashemite ruler Sharif Hussein of Hijaj to
revolt against the caliph in Istanbul (and deputed spy T E Lawrence
to help out). The war’s end did not bring freedom to the Arabs as
promised; because , at the same time, by secret Sykes-Picot
agreement, the British and French arbitrarily divided the sultan’s
Arab domains and their warring populations of Shi’ites, Sunnis,
Alawite Muslims, Druse, and Christians. The French took most of
greater Syria, dividing it into Syria and Christian-dominated
Lebanon. The British kept Palestine, Iraq and the rest of Arabia.

When Sharif Hussein’s son Emir Feisel arrived to claim Damascus,
Syria, the French chased him out. So the British installed him on the
Iraqi throne. When the other son, Emir Abdullah, turned up in Amman,
British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, dining in a Jerusalem
hotel, reportedly drew on a napkin the borders of a new Emirate of
Trans-Jordan, encompassing wasteland vaguely claimed by Syrians,
Saudis and Iraqis.

By the 1917 Balfour Declaration Britain had also promised a homeland
for Jews in Palestine. European Jews began emigrating to Palestine,
and the trickle became a flood with the rise of anti-Semitic policies
in Nazi Germany and elsewhere in Europe. After World War II, the
state of Israel, carved out of British Palestine, was not recognized
by the Arabs. The 1948 Arab-Israeli war allowed Israel to expand its
area, while Jordan annexed the West Bank and Egypt took over Gaza. In
the Six-Day War of 1967, Israel captured the West bank and Gaza and
Syria’s Golan heights. Thus were laid the foundations for most of the
problems of the region.

The contemporary state of Lebanon came into being in 1920 when
France, administered it as a League of Nations mandate. The
Maronites, strongly pro-French by tradition, welcomed this, and
during the next 20 years, while France held the mandate, the
Maronites were favoured. The expansion of prewar Lebanon into Greater
Lebanon, however, changed the balance of the population. Although the
Maronites were the largest single element, they no longer formed a
majority. The population was more or less equally divided between
Christians and Muslims, and a large section of it wanted neither to
be ruled by France nor to be part of an independent Lebanon, but
rather to join Syrian or an Arab state

Lebanon became a republic in 1926 and achieved independence in 1943.
Its rugged, mountainous terrain served throughout history as an
asylum for diverse religious and ethnic groups and for political
dissidents. The majority of Lebanese now are Muslims ,( with Shiite
the most numerous ) followed by Christians with Maronites the largest
group, Greek Orthodox and Greek Catholics , and Druzes and Armenians
and, even a very small minority of Jews. Lebanon is one of the most
densely populated countries in the Mediterranean area. It has one of
the highest rates of literacy.

Lebanon is a republic with a parliamentary system of government. Its
constitution, promulgated in 1926 during the French mandate was
modified by several subsequent amendments. According to the 1989 Taif
agreement, parliamentary seats are apportioned equally between
Christian and Muslim sects, thereby replacing an earlier ratio that
had favoured Christians. This sectarian distribution is also observed
in appointments to public office and jobs.

The head of state is the president, who is elected by a two-thirds
majority of the National Assembly for a term of six years and is
eligible for reelection only after the lapse of an additional six
years. By an unwritten convention, the president must be a Maronite
Christian, the premier a Sunnite Muslim, and the speaker of the
National Assembly a Shiite. The Cabinet members’ portfolios are
organized to reflect the sectarian balance and holds more executive
power than the president. It requires a vote of confidence from the
assembly. A Cabinet usually falls because of internal dissension,
societal strife, or pressure exerted by foreign states. The control
of the official central government is at best precarious; sectarian
militias and foreign countries exert great influence .

Lebanon has to grapple with internal problems of social and economic
organization, and also to struggle to define its position in relation
to Israel, to its Arab neighbours, and to Palestinian refugees living
in Lebanon. The Lebanese pluralistic communal structure eventually
collapsed under the pressures of this struggle. Communal rivalries
over political power became so exacerbated by the complex issues that
arose from the Palestinian question that a breakdown of the
governmental system resulted from an extremely damaging civil war
that began in 1975.

The civil war was a catastrophe for the Lebanese, whose country lay
in ruins. There seemed to be no compromise acceptable to the Muslims,
who numbered more than half the population, and to the Christians,
who were determined to keep their control of key government
institutions. Foreign intervention merely restrained open, full scale
warfare. Economic destruction was massive, but this was overcome to a
certain extent by increased remittances from Lebanese working abroad
during the boom years in the oil-producing countries.

Then Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 to eliminate Palestine Libration
Organisation (PLO) , a law into itself ., which had been expelled
from Jordan in early 1970s .PLO Chief Yasser Arafat had to leave
Beirut, but under the command and neglect of Defence Minister ,
thousands of helpless Palestinians , mostly women, children and old
men were butchered by Christian militia, Israel’s allies .
A year after the Israeli withdrawal in 1982 from southern Lebanon,
Hezbollah—Lebanon’s main resistance force in the region—refused to
consider that the country had regained its full sovereignty, since
Israel still controlled the Sheba farms enclave and had not released
all Lebanese prisoners of war, and Israeli warplanes patrolled
Lebanese skies at will.
In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks in the U.S., Lebanon
tried to walk a tightrope. Lebanese officials were at pains to stress
their condemnation of the attacks against civilians, while at the
same time, they emphasized the distinction between terrorism and the
struggle for liberation. Bush’s statement for a Palestinian state was
welcomed by Lebanese officials, who were under international pressure
to naturalize about 330,000 Palestinian refugees in Lebanon . They
were uneasy, about Washington targeting Hezbollah for attack as a
terrorist organization.

In 1980s , the West had supported Iraq’s long war against Ayatollah
Khomeini’s Iran, and the US had granted loans to Baghdad worth
billions of dollars. For strategic reasons Syria sided with Iran .But
in 1990-91 Gulf War , Syria along with most of the Arab world and
Turkey joined Papa Bush coalition for various reasons , Iraq’s
invasion of Kuwait, money , cutting Saddam Hussein down to size ,
when Iraq at great human and money cost had stopped Khomeini’s
Shiite revolution from expanding in the Arab world .Ironically ,
Shiite of Iraq have now become a major force after 30 January
elections in Iraq . In both US led wars against Iraq, Israel and
unwittingly Iran have gained .
This article was submitted by the author for publication at
Al-Jazeerah on Feb 17, 2005. It was also published by Saag.com.

–Boundary_(ID_a5ZhVvPiBhgOl119smjdhA)–

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress