KOMMERSANT

KOMMERSANT News, MARCH 03, 2005

Axis of Evil Shaping Against Moscow

Rose-orange Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova are establishing an anti-Russian
tie-up to force Moscow from Caucasus and Pridnestrovie, analysts say quoted
by the RBC news agency.

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili arrived in Moldova last night. In
Kishinev, Saakashvili held talks with Moldova’s President Vladimir Voronin.
The parties canvassed establishing cooperation under the GUUAM bloc, which
unites Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan (membership of
the last two countries is formal), to oppose `Russia’s imperialism’ in the
region. Only three parties appear aggressively involved in consultations.
The day before yesterday, Voronin went to Kiev to negotiate with Ukrainian
President Viktor Yushchenko. By mere chance, the visit of Moldova’s leader
coincided with the tour of the new Georgian PM Zurab Nogaideli. Top
officials have never bothered to conceal the target of GUUAM revival. The
main highlights are forcing Russia from the Caucasus and Pridnestrovie;
establishment of transport corridors, going the round of Russia. Therefore,
the parties actually endeavor to create a sanitary corridor to isolate
Russia from Europe and Transcaucasia. In view of the traditionally weak
foreign policy of Russia, Moscow is unable to rebuff, analysts told RBC. The
only way out is stop dancing to someone else’s pipe and apply `nonstandard
methods.’

It was exactly creation of a trilateral anti-Russian union
(Georgia-Moldova-Ukraine) based on GUUAM bloc that was in the limelight of
Kishinev negotiations. Before the Georgia-Moldova’s summit, that matter had
been thoroughly discussed in Kiev, in the course of the meeting between
Yushchenko and Voronin.

`GUUAM block had been created long ago and shaped by 1999, but it was idle
de-factor. Now, after a series of `color’ revolutions the hopes have sprung
for its revival,’ said Sergey Borovikov, expert at St. Petersburg
Constructing Future analytical group.

`GUUAM reanimation is underway. A triple axis that yet comprises Georgia,
Ukraine and Moldova is being created. The aim of this union is to force
Russia from Caucasus and the southeastern Europe. Armenia and Pridnestrovie
have turned out completely isolated from the RF. Ukraine and Moldova
enforced severe economic blockage of Tiraspol, having cut the developed
industry of Pridnestrovie of the market outlet,’ said Alexander Skakov,
expert at the Russian Strategic Research Institute. In Tbilisi and Kishinev,
they are looking to the West for help. A few days ago, Salome Zurabishvili
called on the United States and the EU to render real support to the
republic, when it is striving to get rid of the rudimental influence of
Russian military bases and to oppose Moscow’s encouragement of two
separatists’ republics.

Meanwhile, the battle might turn out not so losing for Russia. `The key
thing is not to repeat mistakes made in Ukraine and Abkhazia, i.e. not to
get involved in the `color’ revolutions,’ Borovikov said. Russia must
deliver unusual response. For instance, it may denounce Molotov-Ribbentrop
Pact and offer the neighbors to revise borders, in a move to trigger
concerns in Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine and Moldova. Or Russian military
bases could be assigned to the Emergency Ministry, which may be fighting
`disastrous humanitarian situation’ and terrorism in Georgia and
Pridnestrovie, Borovikov offered. Such point of view is shared by Alexander
Sobyanin, head of the strategic planning service at the Association of
Frontier Cooperation. `Russia is weak. We must act in full conformity with
the Western rhetoric, but under our own, not other’s rules,’ Sobyanin
specified.