PanArmenian News
March 5 2005
ELECTIONS IN MOLDOVA MAY INDIRECTLY AFFECT KARABAKH CONFLICT RESOLUTION
In Stepanakert they suppose that political forces supporting the
dialogue with the unacknowledged Prednestrovian Republic will win the
elections.
Parliamentary elections in Moldova will take place on Monday.
Armenian political leadership has several reasons to express special
interest to the political processes in this country. One of the
reasons is the presence of a conflict that has a lot in common with
Karabakh. First of all the important thing for us is the way
Moldavian elections will affect Prednestrovian conflict resolution.
Another important question is will the “velvet revolution” wave
swallow Moldova? If after Tbilisi and Kiev change of power takes
place also in Kishinev, Armenian oppositionists will definitely get
more determined…
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Having stirred up revolutions in Georgia and
Ukraine, the West shows less interest in Moldova. During his speech
in Bratislava, the President of the USÀ George Bush also mentioned
Moldova, talking about countries where democracy may and must win in
the nearest future. However, his words can be interpreted
differently. The thing is that the current regime in Kishinev is much
more convenient for the West than for Russia, that is why United
States does not have particular reasons to stir up a revolution in
Moldova. In fact, a “velvet revolution” took place in Kishinev yet
when the pro-Russian communist Vladimir Voronin reviewed his policy
towards the European Union. The westernized course of the president
became more apparent after the rejection of Moldavian authorities of
the “Kozak plan” proposed by Moscow for Prednestrovian conflict
resolution.
Voronin supposes that Americans have to appreciate his aspiration to
oppose to Moscow in everything. As an encouragement for the
persistency in that issue, Washington abandoned the idea of sending
political technologists to Kishinev to train local oppositionists the
art of revolution making. The figures of Georgian “Kmara” revolutionary
organization were recommended to leave Moldova immediately. The leader
of “Kmara” Tea Tutberidze hurried to state that his people had nothing
to do in Kishinev and went home immediately. Instead of her Georgian
president Mikhail Saakashvili went to Moldova but with quite another
mission. He arrived there not to stir up a revolution but on the
contrary – to suppress the revolution. The support of communist
Voronin may seem strange if we take into account that not long ago
Saakashvili announced in the Parliament about the necessity to
prohibit the activity of Georgian communist party. However, ideology
always receded into the background when global geopolitical interests
come to the forefront.
The President of Ukraine also supported the Moldavian leader and
organized a warm reception in Kiev. The formation of
Saakashvili-Ushenko-Voronin “Triple Alliance” also touches upon our
interests. Establishment of friendly relations between Georgia,
Ukraine and Moldova means that in the structure of GUUAM (Georgia,
Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Moldova) association a new informal
union of “more advanced” states is being formed. Important for us is
that Azerbaijan is not included in that union. On the other hand
extremely dangerous for us is the intention of the initiators of the
“Triple Alliance” to unite the “Black Sea zones of CIS” with the
European Union. Europeans have so far regarded South Caucasus as a
single whole. In all global European programs Georgia, Armenia and
Azerbaijan participate as a component part of the south Caucasian
region. But now there is a new tendency – Europeans started to
outline “Black Sea region” viewing Georgia in isolation from other
Caucasian countries. The victory of westernized parties will speed up
close cooperation between the three Black Sea states and will
strengthen their claims to full EU membership. The acceptance of
Moldavians in the “trust circle” contradicts to the interests of
Yerevan and may slow down the integration of our country into
European structures. Therefore, it would be more favorable for
Armenia if Kishinev stayed under Moscow’s sphere of influence. In
this view the formation of a powerful pro-Russian opposition in
Moldavian parliament will be convenient for us.
The implementation of the Russian scenario in Moldova would enable to
speed up the settlement of Prednestrovian problem. In case of the
success of political forces enjoying the support of Moscow, there
will be a chance of resubmitting to consideration the so-called
“Kozak plan” according to which horizontal relations should be formed
between Kishinev and Tiraspol. This is an interesting variant for us
since it may result in the creation of an important precedent. It is
worth reminding that the “Kozak plan” is based on the principle of
“common states” which was discussed during negotiations on the
settlement of Karabakh conflict. This variant was approved by Yerevan
and Stepanakert but was denied by Azerbaijan. In this respect,
strengthening of the pro-Russian opposition in the parliament may be
very advantageous for Armenia since it might help the recommencement
of direct dialogue between the authorities of Moldova and the
unacknowledged Prednestrovian Republic. The more examples of loyal
attitude towards unacknowledged states the stronger the positions of
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.
The victory of communists in Moldavian elections may also be useful
for us in another aspect. As it is known, president Voronin insists
on the new format of peacemaking operations, based on Kosovo scheme.
He urges that mixed peacemaking forces including Russian and NATO
militaries should be the guarantors of the maintenance of agreements
reached. The necessity of placing peacemaking forces will arise
sooner or later also in case of Karabakh if the issue of eastern
regions of security zone is solved. The possibility of involvement of
American militaries in peacemaking forces will naturally displeasure
Moscow. Possibly the solution of this problem will be less painful if
the partnership of western and Russian militaries is approbated
firstly in Prednestrovia.
However, in any case it should be remembered that the outcome of
elections will hardly bring to radical changes because on Monday in
Moldova they are going to elect parliament and not president.
(Moldova is a presidential country.) Therefore, it is quite possible
that the next capital of “velvet revolution” is going to be Baku and
not Kishinev. This perspective became more real after the meeting of
George Bush with the leader of Ukrainian “revolutionists” Vladislav
Kaskiv who was blessed by the U.S. President to “support democratic
movements in Azerbaijan”.
Artyom Yerkanyan