UNFAVORABLE DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS CLOUD ARMENIA’S ECONOMIC PROSPECTS — STUDY
Haroutiun Khachatrian 3/07/05
EurasiaNet Organization
March 7 2005
Unfavorable demographic trends are clouding Armenia~Rs economic
recovery prospects, according to a recent study. To improve the
population picture, the Armenian government should develop programs
aimed at raising the birth rate and discouraging economic migration,
one of the authors of the study says.
The recent economic news coming out of Armenia has tended to be
good: the country has recorded impressive economic growth rates in
recent years, and a report released in late 2004 showed a significant
decline in the poverty rate. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive]. However, the country~Rs high emigration rate, driven in
large measure by economic factors, could make it hard for Armenia to
sustain the current growth pattern. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive].
The recent report, titled Social Demographic Challenges of Post-Soviet
Armenia, takes a detailed look at how economic chaos, war and
natural disaster have affected Armenia~Rs demographic picture in the
post-Soviet era. The United Nations Population Fund funded the survey
prepared by Ruben Yeganian, a researcher at Yerevan State University,
and Karine Kujumijian of the National Statistical Service.
Large-scale emigration has been a major factor in Armenia~Rs overall
drop in population since the Soviet collapse in 1991. Though the
country~Rs emigration rates have declined ~V 2004 was the first time
since 1996 that immigrants outnumbered emigrants ~V the report finds
that the damage to the Armenian economy may prove long-lasting.
Declining birth rates, rising death rates and an ageing population have
transformed the country~Rs demographic make-up. During the 1970s and
80s, Armenia featured perhaps the healthiest demographic picture in the
Soviet Union. The country enjoyed an optimal population growth rate —
1.4 percent per year between 1979 and 1990 — and had the highest life
expectancy (about 74 years as of 1987) of any Soviet republic. A good
health care system, a relatively high number of children per family
(2.4 on average) contributed to Armenia~Rs solid growth rate.
Armenia~Rs demographic trends abruptly changed following the December
1988 earthquake at Spitak. Most of the quake~Rs victims were in their
reproductive years, putting a dent in population growth. The economic
chaos produced by the Soviet Union~Rs collapse added to the quake~Rs
legacy. Armenia~Rs death rate began to climb to about 8 deaths per
1,000 people by 2000, an increase of 27 percent. The number remains
largely unchanged today. Concurrently, life expectancy started to fall
and, more than a decade after independence, has still not climbed back
to its Soviet-era level. As of 2003, Armenians could expect to live
for 72.3 years, according to official statistics. But the authors of
the Social Demographic Challenges study suggested that the official
estimate might be inaccurate, adding that actual life expectancy is
probably lower.
At the same time, Armenia~Rs birth rate has declined by half, prompting
a sharp drop in the natural population growth rate. This statistic,
which reflects the number of births minus the number of deaths,
has undergone a six-fold decrease since 1990. That year, Armenia~Rs
growth rate stood at 16.3 births per 1,000 people, but by 2001,
it had fallen to a mere 2.7 births.
Another population study, presented at an Organization for Security
and Cooperation in Europe meeting in late 2004, made a startling
forecast: if Armenia~Rs demographic trends continue to follow the
existing pattern, the country~Rs population could fall to 2.66 million
by 2025. That would represent an over 15 percent decrease from the
official population figure of 3.2 million on January 1, 2005. By 2050,
the numbers could tumble still further to 2.33 million.
Many specialists, however, argue that the population growth pattern is
hard to accurately forecast, given the influence of fluctuating and
unpredictable migration trends. In 2000, for instance, even though
the population~Rs natural growth rate increased by 10,300 people,
the gain was neutralized by the 42,000 people who emigrated from
Armenia. If emigration slows down, demographers say, the country~Rs
population growth picture could improve markedly.
Yeganian, however, is cautious. Armenian families, which traditionally
had two or three children, now mostly have only one. A change
in migration numbers, he said, is unlikely to reverse the birth
trend. “This means that the ageing of the population may be a real
perspective in the near future,” Yeganian said. In 2004, according
to official statistics, 10.6 percent of the population was estimated
to be over the age of 65.
Recent surveys suggest that the number of Armenians planning to
emigrate is not decreasing, Yeganian went on to say. An active
government policy is needed to stimulate birth rates and reverse
emigration, he added. Hranush Kharatian, who heads the government~Rs
department of national minorities and religious affairs, shares
that opinion. “Even a very modestly funded program declaring the
government~Rs readiness to attract labor migrants back to the country
will have a very positive psychological effect,” she said. Kharatian
has shared her thoughts with other government officials, but reports
that, despite sympathy for the idea, no plans are in the works to
realize it.
The Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper, the government~Rs principal
program document, makes no mention of demographic problems. The
document simply implies that with a reduction in poverty, migration
will decrease. For now, the closest program to Kharatian~Rs proposal
is a Migration and Refugees Agency public information campaign about
the dangers of human trafficking and the problems migrants may face
trying to obtain asylum in various countries. At the same time,
the agency also tries to assist people in finding jobs abroad.
Editor~Rs Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer
specializing in economic and political affairs.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress