PanArmenian News Analysis
March 10 2005

AKHALKALAKI ARMENIANS DO NOT INTERFERE IN THE DISPUTE CONCERNING
RUSSIAN MILITARY BASES

Armenians of Djavakhq realize that there are no alternatives to the
withdrawal of Russian forces and Armenian – Georgian relations should
not be spoiled for that.

Georgian parliament has started discussions concerning the withdrawal
of Russian military bases from the Republic. Russian and Georgian
parties have to reach agreement before the fixed date, which is May
15. If agreement is not reached in the course of negotiations,
Georgian parliament will announce the presence of Russian military
bases illegal and will order the government to submit a plan of
actions for “liquidating Russian military presence in Georgia”. Thus,
it may form a situation that will threaten the stability and security
of the whole South-Caucasian region. In this case, Armenians will
occur in the most delicate situation since one of the Russian bases
is located in Armenian-populated Akhalkalaki region. The inhabitants
of this region strongly support Russian military presence in Georgia.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Currently there are three Russian military bases on
the territory of Georgia: the 12th (Batumi), the 62nd (Akhalkalaki)
and the headquarters of Russian forces in Tbilisi. The estimated
number of Russian military contingent in Georgia is three thousand
people. Moscow makes it clear that the withdrawal of bases within the
coming three years is out of question. Not long ago Minister of
Defense Sergey Ivanov stated that the military forces would leave
Georgia only after the establishment of two new bases on the
territory of Russia. Therefore, it is impossible to speak about
concrete dates today. Georgia in its turn insists on the immediate
withdrawal of military bases bringing the example of Lebanon where
the issue of Syrian military presence was solved just in three days.
So, it is obvious that there is a high probability of a conflict.

Georgians are determined to apply all possible means of pressure,
like diplomatic, energetic, sanitary and so on~E It should be
mentioned that Georgians are quite experienced in such kind of
actions. Taking the occasion of non-payment of communal taxes they
once cut of water and electricity supply to Russian bases. By the
way, Russian bases still have some debts, so formally there are
reasons for sanctions. Another method applied is the pressure on
commercial structures providing products to the bases. This method
has been applied also. Tax authorities organized extraordinary
check-ups in firms belonging to Akhalkalaki Armenians who provided
food to Russians. It is very likely that this scenario will be
practiced again. If Russian bases do not receive electricity, gas,
water, products, it will certainly result in adequate sanctions from
Moscow too, because Russia provides gas and electricity to Georgia.
In Tbilisi, they realize that and this is the reason why president
Saakashvili is not as radical as Georgian parliamentarians.

Another form of pressure that may be applied by Georgians is the
restriction of the movement of Russian militaries over the country’s
territory. Last year Georgia ceased to give entry visas to Russian
militaries.
The total number of Russian military staff is three thousand though
it has to be about 4.5 thousand. The base in Akhalkalaki is staffed
worse than Batumi base. The thing is that the command transported
Armenian officers and ensigns from Akhalkalaki to Russia fearing that
during departure weapons may occur in the hands of local residents.
However, the militaries were never replaced.

The tension around Akhalkalaki military base may have a negative
impact on the interests and the security of Djavakhq Armenians.
Yerevan is very much interested in the settlement of the conflict
around bases. It is not a secret that Russian special services
encourage local residents and politically active people to make
radical steps in support of Russian military presence. It is worth
reminding that the head of Armenian “Virq” party functioning in
Armenian populated areas announced two years ago that local Armenians
are ready to protect Russian bases. “If Russians do not wish to
withdraw their forces from Akhalkalaki they will need our help and
our help will be quite enough” said David Rstayan, the head of “Virq”
party. This phrase may be commented differently. In Tbilisi they
think that the revelation of Mr. Rstayan should be understood as an
approval of the fact that Russian special services are going to raise
Armenians in order to fail the fulfillment of obligations concerning
the withdrawal of military bases. However, it is worth mentioning
that currently Djavakhq Armenians do not make such sharp statements.
Although they feel more secure by the presence of Russian forces,
they seem to realize that the withdrawal of Russian forces has no
alternatives and it would be silly to spoil relations with Georgians
because of that.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress