Kommersant, Russia
March 11 2005

The Price of Withdrawal

// And the price of remaining

The thesis that withdrawal takes a lot of money and time is the major
one in a long lasting dispute between Russia and Georgia. So, in
Moscow they say that the troops can leave Georgia not earlier than in
seven or eight years.

However, the problem of withdrawal is more serious as it may seem.
Russia will either preserve or lose its presence in Transcaucasia.

The main strategic partner of Moscow in this region is Moscow. There
is a great Russian military base. However, the way to the Russian
base in Armenia goes through the Georgian territory and the presence
of the Russian soldiers there is a sort of guarantee that the way
won~Rt be blocked.

If Russia loses its influence on Georgia it will weaken its positions
on the whole territory of Transcaucasia. In its turn it will put an
end to the attempts to gain influence on the Central Asia.

That~Rs why Russia is struggling for the right to be present in
Georgia. Kremlin doesn~Rt want just to normalize relations with
Georgia. It wants to radically change relations with Georgia. They
want to preserve influence. So in Moscow they put it like all or
nothing.

However, Moscow~Rs behavior may make politicians of the former Soviet
republics wonder and makes positions of Russia on their territories
quite shaky.

by Gennady Sysoev