Russia set to foil “velvet revolutions” in post-Soviet states – Azeri expert
Ekspress, Baku
11 Mar 05
Text of Alakbar Raufoglu report by Azerbaijani newspaper Ekspress on
11 March entitled “CIS-US summit might be held in Moscow” and
subheaded “Independent pundit Mubariz Ahmadoglu thinks Russia is
carrying out anti-revolutionary measures in post-Soviet countries”
“The recent frequent cease-fire violations on the contact line of the
Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces are linked with Armenia’s plan
to have international peacekeepers deployed in the region,” Mubariz
Ahmadoglu, an independent pundit and the chairman of the Centre for
Political Innovation and Technology [CPIT], told yesterday’s [10
March] monthly press conference devoted to public and political events
in the South Caucasus.
He described the recent pace of the Karabakh talks as “successful for
Azerbaijan”. “Armenians are unhappy about the current state of the
settlement of the problem. Therefore, they intend to alter the
situation on the contact line of the armed forces and distract
attention from reaching real peace,” Ahmadoglu said. He thinks that
Yerevan wants Russian peacekeepers to be deployed on the front-line.
At the same time, the political analyst thinks that more people are
now backing a quick resolution to the Karabakh problem. This is
stemming from the fact that Armenia “has lost its positions” in the
peace process. “Now the majority of people in Armenia are looking for
ways to come out of the settlement process with minimum losses.”
Commenting on the [US President George] Bush – [Russian President
Vladimir] Putin meeting [in Bratislava on 24 February], the head of
the CPIT said that contrary to expectations, the reason for Bush not
to have cornered the Russian president was that the US leader agreed
to visit Moscow on 9 May to attend the festivities to mark the 60th
anniversary of the victory over fascism.
“According to reports from official and unofficial sources, a US-CIS
meeting might take place in Moscow in May to discuss issues in detail
there,” the political expert said.
He underlined the recent “positive tendencies” in the US policy
towards the CIS. Thus, Washington already “understands its rivals in
the regions where its specific interest lies”.
In turn, Russia is aspiring to cooperation with opposition forces to
prevent “velvet revolutions” in post-Soviet areas. “Moscow has already
kicked off specific measures in this regard.” Ahmadoglu believes that
Russia is implementing “secret plans” in CIS countries through its
NGOs. “The Movement for Azerbaijan [led by the leader of the Movement
for Azerbaijan and the Solidarity and Trust election alliance, Ilqar
Qasimov] is precisely the NGO that is carrying out this mission in
Azerbaijan.
The pundit believes that Moscow intends to establish contacts with
Azerbaijani political forces through this organization, and in turn,
opposition parties understand this and are cautious.