President’s latest remarks mean Azerbaijan might be getting ready for war –
daily

Ayna, Baku
15 Mar 05

Text of C. Sumarinli report by Azerbaijani newspaper Ayna on 15 March
headlined “The president’s military priorities” and subheaded “Baku is
buying new military hardware for the next Azerbaijani-Armenian war”

The main priority in the activity of [Azerbaijani President] Ilham
Aliyev is to increase the country’s military budget and raise the
salaries of servicemen, as well as buy new military hardware for the
army, he declared in his address at a ceremony to mark the 13th
anniversary of the establishment of the Interior Troops.

Generally, when analysing the president’s remarks, one can come to the
following three conclusions.

First, war is inevitable although undesirable. Therefore, the army is
making preparations for further military operations [against
neighbouring Armenia over the disputed region of Nagornyy Karabakh].
The president uses the terms “military operations” or “war” as
infrequently as possible and prefers the words “other options” and
“new issues”. Experts believe that this is an indicator of Aliyev’s
relatively cautious behaviour over relations with international
organizations.

Despite dubbing war a “humanitarian disaster”, the president says that
the nation is ready to fight and a lot of work will be done to this
end.

If we take into consideration the fact that the preparations for war
are conducted in two directions (organization of mobilization
resources and better logistics of the army), one can suppose that the
government is bracing itself to do more serious work in this regard.

Second, the president said that Azerbaijan’s military budget will
again be increased. One can understand from his statements that this
increase could be as much as 40 per cent, as was the case last
year. Thus, Azerbaijan’s military budget in 2006 could be about 350m
dollars. At the same time, the salaries of servicemen will also be
raised.

Third, the purchase of military hardware for the army is a
priority. The president touched upon this several times in his latest
statements. At the same time, he said that the bulk of military
hardware of the Interior Troops had been bought over the past
year. The purchase of military hardware will continue over a solution
to “new issues” (a military option could be meant).

Ayna’s group of military experts says that there are a few noteworthy
points in these remarks of the president as compared to his previous
statements. These points are basically about buying new military
hardware and using it to resolve the conflict.

In general, Aliyev’s statements may mean that Baku does not rule out
the possibility of resuming military operations although it prefers
peace negotiations and prioritizes taking serious steps towards
organizing the country’s mobilization resources, improving the
provisions of the armed forces and conducting war with
state-of-the-arts weaponry.