Velvet revolution inevitable in Armenia – opposition leader

Iravunk, Yerevan
11 Mar 05

Armenian opposition leader Vazgen Manukyan has said that a velvet
revolution is inevitable in Armenia. In his interview with Iravunk
newspaper, he stressed that a referendum and elections will be held in
Armenia soon, after which people will speak about changing the
government. Either the government should try to change something in
cooperation with other forces or the people will revolt one day,
Manukyan said. At the same time, he added that he does not see any
force that would be able to come to power and take specific steps. The
following is an excerpt from Piruza Meliksetyan report by Armenian
newspaper Iravunk on 11 March headlined “They are constantly trying to
fool external forces, but are fooled themselves”. Subheadings have
been inserted editorially:

An interview with the leader of the National Democratic Union, Vazgen
Manukyan.

Foreign policy is an important factor

[Correspondent] Being a member of the Justice bloc, why did the
National Democratic Union leader join the trio [Vazgen Manukyan, Ashot
Manucharyan, the political secretary of the Union of Socialists Forces
and Intelligentsia, and Paruyr Ayrikyan, the leader of the
Self-Determination Association]?

[Manukyan] These two units have been formed in different ways and for
different goals. Justice was formed during the presidential run-off of
2003 between Robert Kocharyan and Stepan Demirchyan. Having registered
unprecedented violations in the first round, we naturally joined the
people and supported Stepan Demirchyan in the run-off.

[Passage omitted: Justice bloc won seats in parliamentary elections]

But there are also foreign policy and the Karabakh problem. Foreign
policy is not only the government’s business. It is a very important
factor in society and is conducted at different levels at the same
time. Armenia has no mechanisms of conducting its foreign
policy. There is even no relevant council in the country let alone
wider structures. That is why those feeling responsibility for foreign
policy have united not in parties, but in persons in an attempt to
create certain mechanisms and to raise certain issues.

[Passage omitted: The Justice bloc has proved to be wise enough to
take this trio calmly without unnecessary suspicion]

People in opposition to government

[Manukyan] Today the government is trying to prove that there is no
opposition in its true sense in Armenia. They think that if there are
no rallies and no clashes, there is no opposition. Meanwhile, I know
that a great number of Armenians are in opposition to what the
government is presently doing in the economy and politics. They are in
opposition to illegality and corruption. They are blaming the
government and calling it illegal. If people are in opposition,
naturally the parties that have been fighting together with them in
the past years are also in opposition.

[Correspondent] By saying there is no opposition, the government might
mean the ways in which this opposition is expressed.

[Manukyan] There are the following ways of expressing opposition:

a) in the parliament (which the opposition is boycotting for known
reasons);

b) rallies;

c) discussions, press conferences and interviews.

Rallies will take place soon. But this is not only for the opposition
(and not only by chanting “Government, go away!”), but also for the
government itself to search for ways out. Presidents come and go –
Kocharyan is in power today but will go tomorrow – but the parties
which have already been in politics for many years and want to stay
there in the years to come should be trying to find some
solutions. Hostility is not a way out. The parties of the ruling
coalition should also be interested in developing the country. They
also want to have power, but they should know that everything has its
price.

[Passage omitted: Manukyan denies that he was recently offered the
post of prime minister. Asked if government reshuffles can bring some
substantial improvements in terms of democracy, Manukyan said that he
gives priority to an effective constitution, qualified civil servants
and active public involvement]

Velvet revolution inevitable

[Correspondent] Speaking of democracy in the light of recent coloured
revolutions, many Armenian politicians say that unlike the Georgians
or Ukrainians, the Armenian opposition has failed to achieve tangible
results.

[Manukyan] Let’s not forget that the first attempt to stage a velvet
revolution was made in Armenia in 1996 because of the Karabakh
problem. It is true that there were broken cordons and shootings, but
in content it was a velvet revolution. Velvet is a nice term, but in
reality the illegal regime was trying to retain power while masses
were fighting to bring their own people to power. It was quite
natural. Simply in Georgia and Ukraine there were external forces who
tried to find a compromise and warned the ruling regimes against
applying force. I believe that the external forces want the
post-Soviet republics to be non-criminal and democratic. The
democratic West is interested in these countries as they will
integrate into the West sooner or later. And I would very much like
this to happen in Armenia without external interference. This will be
difficult to avoid, but I think that the example of Georgia and
Ukraine will show Armenia how to act in the future.

[Correspondent] So you think there will be such developments in
Armenia?

[Manukyan] I think this is inevitable. We will soon hold a referendum
and elections, and whether you like it or not, the people will speak
about changing the government, too.

[Passage omitted: Asked if there will be drastic changes by 2008,
Manukyan says that this is quite possible. What is impossible is to
change something in one or two months as the opposition is saying now]

Unnatural situation

[Manukyan] Today I cannot see any programme that could make Armenia
prosperous and democratic in, say, some six specific steps. I see no
such way now. But this unnatural situation cannot continue for
long. There are different ways: either seeing the crisis the
government itself will try to change something in cooperation with
other forces or the people will revolt one day. But those saying that
this will happen in one or two months are just expressing their wish.

[Correspondent] Do you think that the government change is enough?

[Manukyan] The National Democratic Union believes that the government
change is too little for having the country we want to have and for
fulfilling the task that has been set.

[Correspondent] Do you see any force in the country who can take power
and take some specific steps?

[Manukyan] No, I don’t.

[Correspondent] You said that this unnatural situation will not last
long. Don’t you think that the government will shortly try to change
this situation by reproducing itself through a revolution from above?

[Manukyan] There are two ways: either the government will try to cheat
its own people and external forces, which will be difficult to
do. They are constantly trying to fool external forces, but are fooled
themselves. The people, too, feels and quickly reacts to what is
natural and not. So deceit is not a way out. The other way is very
unlikely – the government will take serious steps to lead us out of
this situation.

[Passage omitted: The world is developing very quickly and our
internal processes are failing to keep pace, Manukyan concluded]