USA, Russia pushing Armenian president towards Karabakh deal – newspaper

Iravunk, Yerevan
15 Mar 05

US pressure on Armenia is aimed at compelling President Robert
Kocharyan to sign a settlement on the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, not
at orchestrating an “orange revolution”, according to an article in
Armenian newspaper Iravunk. “Both Washington and Moscow regard Robert
Kocharyan as a `politically written off’ figure who can be forced to
accept an unpleasant decision,” the article said. Some opposition
forces too would like Kocharyan to sign a settlement, as it avoids
them having to deal with the problem. A preliminary document is
expected to be signed during the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents’
next meeting in May, according to the article. The following is the
text of Ovanes Galadzhyan’s report in Iravunk on 15 March headlined
“Moscow and Washington have politically ‘written off’ Robert
Kocharyan”; subheadings have been inserted editorially:

US Senate committee hears criticism of Armenia

Of late not a day has gone by without a statement, report or
discussion that is negative for Armenia. During recent hearings at the
US Senate Foreign Relations Committee on “The Future of Democracy in
the Black Sea Area”, US Deputy Assistant Secretary John Tefft said:
“Further reform is hampered by Armenia’s relatively isolated position
and the ongoing Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, which has been an enormous
drain on the government’s resources for over 10 years.” Almost the
same was said about Azerbaijan, but for the note: “Azerbaijan
continues to offer [extensive and] invaluable support to the United
States for the global war on terror, including but not limited to
blanket overflight rights, the use of Azerbaijan military bases,
information sharing and law-enforcement cooperation.”

During the same hearings the director of International Security and
Energy Programmes at the Nixon Centre, Zeyno Baran, said the Armenian
diaspora “limits US ability to encourage democratic change in this
country” and “The US simply cannot put the same kind of pressure on
President Robert Kocharyan as it was able to do with President Leonid
Kuchma of Ukraine; it is inconceivable to think that Washington would
threaten to keep senior Armenian government officials out of the USA
in case of falsified elections.” The OSCE Minsk Group was criticized
during the meeting for its inefficiency in attaining a final
resolution.

USA wants Kocharyan to sign Karabakh settlement

All this confirms the report received from US sources that US pressure
on Armenia is directed not at orchestrating an “orange revolution” in
the country, but at compelling Robert Kocharyan to sign a document on
a settlement to the Karabakh conflict. By the way a preliminary
document is expected to be signed as early as late spring, during the
next meeting of the Armenian and Azeri presidents. Something not very
pleasant is also awaiting Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan in the next
few days – he is to familiarize himself with the findings of the OSCE
fact-finding mission to the liberated territories.

Moscow is showing no signs of opposition to Washington’s pressure and
hardly anything will change after Vladimir Putin’s visit to
Armenia. In exchange one can observe some trends for the US-EU to make
some mutual compromises with Iran and consequently alleviate their
pressure on that country. This reduces the urgency of the US
aspiration to have a military presence on the Iranian border, but it
is hardly likely to influence the USA’s strategic plans.

The question is why both Washington and Moscow want nobody but Robert
Kocharyan to sign the basic documents on the Karabakh conflict
settlement. The point is that the signing of such documents means the
discrediting of any government, even if they came to power on a
national revolutionary wave. Moreover, an “orange revolution” in
Armenia would make its new president quite a strong figure with an
indisputable resource of legitimacy and overwhelming national support
– a president that may prove quite stubborn in accepting settlement
scenarios that are unacceptable for the Armenian public. That’s why
the USA and not Russia are in no hurry to give the “green light” to
the Armenian opposition and to encourage government change in the
country.

But the selfsame Robert Kocharyan understands perfectly that, after he
has signed an unfavourable settlement document, both the West and
Russia will stop caring for the weak and discredited Armenian
government. Obviously, both Washington and Moscow regard Robert
Kocharyan as a “politically written off” figure who can be forced to
accept an unpleasant decision without being cared for politically
afterwards. Objectively some opposition forces would also like Robert
Kocharyan to ratify the documents to get rid of the problem, as it
carries corresponding risks and weighty responsibilities. That is
possibly the reason why the greater part of the Armenian opposition is
taking its time too.

Kocharyan planning no government reform

And how is Robert Kocharyan responding to these challenges? Following
his latest activities one can see that he is carrying out his own PR
by making public his own achievements – real or unreal – and his daily
ordeal for the sake of his country’s prosperity. In addition during
his recent visit to a carpet-weaving company he said one important
thing, that “there is no sense in making changes to a government that
is showing such indices”.

Robert Kocharyan has, thereby, called for government consolidation and
has made it clear to everybody that the government’s ruin will be ruin
for not only top officials but most oligarchs. This was also a step to
show that there will be no wide reforms or so-called government
revolution. It is clear enough that, when a president who has no
popular or external support starts drastically reforming executives or
infringing on oligarchs, he is running a very big risk. Besides he
cannot resort to a drastic measure like early parliamentary elections,
as Georgia’s example has shown that early parliamentary elections can
easily cause a national revolt.

Opposition in no hurry for revolution

That’s why the opposition is taking its time and, for example, the
Justice bloc says that it will start revolutionary activities not in
spring but at the right moment, the referendum on draft constitutional
amendments, which will hardly come soon. By this time government
cohesion will be non-existent, ruined by severe internal conflicts
during the September local elections. Robert Kocharyan’s statement has
also put an end to the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation-Dashnaktsutyun’s plans for personnel reforms and its
aspirations to gain new positions in the cabinet, which will sooner or
latter be expressed in public.

But the opposition is not only the Justice bloc. But analysing the
behaviour of the other opposition parties one can see no Western
tendencies either. This is natural as the parties are not receiving
any appropriate signals from the West. The National Unity Party too is
passive in its revolutionary efforts, limiting its activities to harsh
criticism of the prosecutor-general, Agvan Ovsepyan, and the
pan-national action to dance in a ring round the Aragats
Mountain. This party may also be waiting for the right moment.

The only party inclined to radical measures is probably New Times,
which is holding a congress in late March to start meeting the people
on 5 April. This is due to their leader Aram Karapetyan’s promise to
start a revolution in April. This is fraught with serious risks and no
coincidence that the government is already taking actions that might
lead to Karapetyan’s criminal persecution.

Kocharyan has staying power

So everybody is waiting to see how the external pressure on Robert
Kocharyan will end. He certainly has resources to delay this process,
but one cannot say for sure for how long they will last. This may last
much longer than might be expected, as the past seven years have shown
that the president has enough strength to withstand a blow and enough
intuition to take his bearings in risky situations.