Kommersant, Russia
March 18 2005

The Independent Cling to the Unrecognized

Moscow wants to strengthen ties with the CIS at the expense of the CIS

Georgian State Minister for Conflict Resolution Georgy Khaindrava
expressed alarm on Thursday over the meeting of the leaders of
Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorny Karabakh that took place in
Moscow the day before, saying it `will not bring Russia and Georgia
closer.’ The meeting will have impact beyond Georgia. It indicates
that the Kremlin is implementing its plan to defend its interests in
the former Soviet Union. The main blow will be directed against
GUUAM, an organization that, with Western help, seeks to be an
alternative to the CIS, which is dominated by Russia.

Khaindrava was in Moscow while the meting of the leaders of the
unrecognized republics took place. He was taking part in a meeting of
the cochairmen of the Mixed Control Commission. On Thursday, after
two days of negotiations, Khaindrava was in high spirits and
characterized Russia’s role in settling the conflicts with the
breakaway republics as `constructive.’

Khaindrava even suggested that the long-awaited agreement on
friendship and cooperation between Moscow and Tbilisi might be signed
soon. He also mentions two impediments to the agreement that still
remain: Moscow’s support for North Ossetia and Abkhazia and the
Russian military bases remaining in Georgia. Khaindrava’s optimism is
not misplaced, however. Russia has almost convinced Georgia that its
bases will be gone by 2008. The foundation of a joint antiterrorism
center will allow Russia to retain some military presence in Georgia.
Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili’s only complaint is that he
wants the Russian withdrawal to be completed by 2007, before the 2008
elections.

Russia and Georgia are far from agreement on the issue of the
breakaway republic, however. Georgia’s cautious reaction to the
meeting of the Abkhazian, South Ossetian and Nagorny Karabakh leaders
suggests that Tbilisi does not yet suspect Moscow’s plans.

Settling the problem of the rebellious autonomies was one of the
Saakashvili’s main pre-election promises. So far, he has succeeded
only in Ajaria, which had never declared its independence. In Moscow,
as well as Tskhinvali and Sukhumi, they are concerned that he may
sanction the use of force there. They say it may happen even this
summer. It seems that Moscow has decided to take preventive measures.
Sources in the breakaway republics their leaders may have a new plan,
to set up a single government with Georgia on the principles of
federalism and equality, such as exists in Serbia and Montenegro.
Tbilisi has no such thing in mind, however. The timing for the plan
is not good either. Montenegro announced it intentions to separate
from Serbia a few weeks ago. Moscow seems to be counting on its
success, however. It is important to it that the settlement process
it is sponsoring be perceived as progressing. The proposal ideally
should soften Tbilisi’s tone in the negotiations.

This is not the end of Kremlin’s foreign policy plans.

There have been ever growing doubts about Moscow’s foreign policy in
recent years. Moscow explains its setbacks in former Soviet countries
as the result of increasing Western influence in an area that had
been considered exclusively Moscow’s sphere of influence and sees the
goal of breaking up the CIS behind it all. The parliamentary
elections in Moldova, where the side supported by Moscow again lost,
showed that the tendency is becoming stronger. Meanwhile, Ukraine and
Georgia have declared a strategic partnership and drawn Moldova into
it as well.

The leaders if the Tbilisi-Chisinau-Kiev axis will try to draw in
still more CIS states. Even though Moscow managed to sow the seeds of
dissent in the GUUAM organization, founded in the late 1990s with
Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova, the idea of a
bright future without Russia remains alive. So Russia is acting more
decisively. The obvious weak spot in GUUAM is Uzbekistan. Its leader,
Islam Karimov, although he plays up to the West, is authoritarian and
not likely to become close to democratic revolutionaries Viktor
Yushchenko and Saakashvili. Karimov will be reminded of that when he
visits Moscow at the end of the month as well.

Russia has ways of influencing the other GUUAM members too. The
presence of Nogorny Karabakh President Arkady Gukasyan at the meeting
of the leaders of the Georgian breakaway leaders is a message to
Azerbaijan (Nagorny Karabakh is claimed by that country), where a
united opposition is preparing for parliamentary elections this fall.
Transdniestrian leader Igor Smirnov was unable to attend Wednesday’s
meeting, but he will be present at a similar meeting in April.

by Alexander Reutov

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress