Azeri, Armenian pundits do not rule out authorities’ hand in truce violations

Aravot, Yerevan
18 Mar 05

Both the Armenian and Azerbaijani authorities could have been
interested in the recent cease-fire violations on the Karabakh front
line, Armenian and Azerbaijani experts have told Armenian newspaper
Aravot. Azerbaijani pundit Zardust Alizada, however, thinks that
Russia, which “fishes in troubled waters”, could be interested in
the tension on the border. The following is text of a Naira Melkonyan
report by Armenian newspaper Aravot on 18 March headlined ” Cease Fire
Violations” and subheaded “Armenian and Azerbaijani experts comment”
Subheading inserted editorially:

Member of the Armat [root] centre Ara Saakyan, the chairman of the
opposition Democratic Party of Armenia, MP Aram Sarkisyan, and the
director of Caucasus regional emergency centre [of Azerbaijan],
Zardust Alizada, have commented on the recent developments on the
Armenian-Azerbaijani contact line.

Azerbaijan, USA concerned

Since 9 March, two or three cases of cease-fire violations have been
registered on the contact line of the Karabakh and Azerbaijani armed
forces. The Azerbaijani side is concerned about the fire exchange in
the north-eastern section of the contact line, near the village of
Seysulan in Mardakert [Agdara] District and in the Idzhevan-Qazax
section of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border which resulted in
casualties, including deaths.

The Azerbaijani Defence Ministry has again reported that the positions
of the Azerbaijani army in the village of Sarcali in Agdam District
were fired on by the Armenian forces yesterday. The Azerbaijani Defence
Ministry repeatedly reported last week that Armenia was constantly
violating the cease-fire regime. In response, the Armenian side is
also making accusations against Azerbaijan.

Speaking about the current situation, US ambassador to Azerbaijan
Reno Harnish expressed his concern saying that the recent developments
showed that the conflict had not been frozen and needed to be solved.

The special envoy of the OSCE chairman-in-office, Andrzej Kasprzyk,
told Azerbaijani ANS TV that the OSCE intended to carry out a
monitoring on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border to reduce tension on
the contact line. He stated that it was possible, adding that they
only hoped that it was possible .

Armenia not interested in cease-fire breach

Who could be interested in the escalation of the conflict? Especially
as the issue of settling the Karabakh conflict has become of interest
to the international community again and the OSCE is expected to
discuss the issue within the coming days. Member of the Armat centre
Ara Saakyan says that the Armenian side is least of all interested in
the violations of the cease-fire as they do not meet the interests
of our country, although they could have been adventures of our
authorities .

Azerbaijan, which is always complaining about the work of OSCE Minsk
Group, is interested in the cease-fire violations, Saakyan said. It
is threatening the Minsk Group to break the cease-fire, arranged by
this organization 11 years ago, in order to speed up a settlement of
the conflict. Probably, the Azerbaijani leadership thinks that the
frequent cease-fire violations could make the OSCE Minsk Group speed
up its efforts to settle the conflict and in its own interests.
Therefore, Azerbaijan is trying to start the entire negotiating
process of settling the conflict all over again – from scratch.

Both countries could be interested

Pointing out that the cease-fire violations did not meet Armenia’s
interests, MP Aram Sarkisyan did not rule out that both parties could
be interested in them. “However, taking into account the course of
the negotiating process, [Azerbaijani President Ilham] Aliyev Jr
probably wants to prove that he could also solve the issue by force
and hinder the settling process within the framework of OSCE Minsk
Group, in which he is not interested. He has already achieved his
goal and the OSCE adopted a resolution in favour of Azerbaijan. Now
Azerbaijan may want the issue to be transferred to the UN where it
has more supporters.” Sarkisyan also added that this tension could
also suit Armenia to reduce its domestic political tension.

People against conflict escalation

The current tension on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border suits the
authorities of both parties and they both could have initiated it.
The director of the Caucasus regional emergency centre, Zardust
Alizada, said. “The tension also suits Russia which fishes in troubled
waters but it is not in the interests of the Armenian and Azerbaijani
peoples,” Alizada told Aravot.

Asked how could the tension influence the negotiating process, Alizada
said that it cannot “as there are no real negotiations, but they are
only an imitation of negotiations and, after all, neither Kocharyan
nor Aliyev are interested in settling the conflict”. He also ruled
out the existence of large-scale incidents on the front line as
“both Kocharyan and Aliyev have already achieved what they intended
and wanted to achieve, that is to say, power,” Alizada said.