Azeri paper suggests restoring proportional representation vote to avoid crisis

Zerkalo web site, Baku
19 Mar 05

The recent developments in Azerbaijan prove that there is a need for
“revolutionary” reforms in the country before the situation gets out
of control, the Azerbaijani newspaper Zerkalo has said. Warring
clans, rampant corruption, weakness of democratic institutions and
lack of the “systemic opposition” stand to destabilize the country.
This is why the authorities themselves should introduce
constitutional amendments that will restore the proportional
representation system and make it easier both to curb the ambitions
of different groups within the authorities and to ensure that strong
opposition factions appear in the parliament. The following is an
excerpt from R. Mirqadirov’s report by Azerbaijani newspaper Zerkalo
web site on 19 March headlined “Revolutionary reforms” and subheaded
“There might not be another chance to make a choice”; subheading as
published:

The developments of the recent months have much more conclusively
proven the need for major reforms in all spheres of social, political
and economic life of the country, including the state government
system. Now it is time to admit that the country is facing a dilemma:
either the authorities effectively initiate reforms that would be
revolutionary by nature themselves, or else…[ellipsis as published]

Let us remind our readers of the most “notable” events of the last
month. The riot in penitentiaries – the head of state said that he
could not even imagine that horrible crimes that contravened
elementary humanitarian norms were taking place in penal colonies. It
emerged that top officials from the Justice Ministry were implicated
in these crimes.

The abduction of the wife of the International Bank [of Azerbaijan]
was the crime that effectively constituted a challenge to the
country’s leadership. It emerged that the criminal group has operated
in the top echelons of the Interior Ministry since as early as 1996,
in other words, for almost 10 years. In terms of extent and
inhumanity of their actions, they rivalled even those
dyed-in-the-wool criminals whom [Azerbaijani President] Ilham Aliyev
spoke about in his speech.

An act of provocation has been carried out against the editor of the
opposition newspaper Azadliq, which was “gladly seized on” by all the
pro-government media, who urged to cook his goose. Then we have all
become witnesses to almost public execution of well-known journalist
[editor-in-chief of Monitor magazine] Elmar Huseynov. Aliyev said
that this crime was the “black spot” on the whole of Azerbaijan.

Then the prices of energy carriers increased several times, which
naturally caused irritation in almost everyone. All this happened in
one month’s time. Is it not too much? Overall, however, this is not
all.

It would suffice to remember the recent “diplomatic exile” of
top-level Defence Ministry officers, followed by scandalous arrests
at that department. To this one could add an almost open war which
different groups within the ruling elite declared on one another.
Finally, it transpired that former National Security Minister Namiq
Abbasov knew about many of the crimes by Haci Mammadov [former top
Interior Ministry official arrested over involvement in high-profile
crimes], but did nothing. In general, our National Security Ministry
does not work effectively even in the Armenia direction.

After all of the abovementioned facts, it is possible to say with
certainty that stability which we all brag about so much is as
minimum under a serious threat. Some people tend to think, though,
that only mass protest actions that the opposition is trying to stage
are manifestations of upset stability.

It is worth noting, though, that unfolding of the situation precisely
in this direction was quite predictable.

Let us try, nonetheless, to find out what is going on and outwardly
manifestations of what profound processes the aforementioned events
are.

[Passage omitted: absence of the real opposition in the country]

What has to be done?

If one answers this question with one sentence, the whole thing is
very simple. To avoid a revolutionary coup, reforms are required that
would be in essence revolutionary – in the economy, political system
etc.

This is precisely why many people expected – and international
organizations made almost open-text demands for – fundamental reforms
in the country in all the spheres, including personnel purges. The
wait has become long. In these conditions, those groups within the
ruling elite who were under a cloud would sooner or later start to
act.

However, the latest events have shown that the force that is capable
of starting to act any time is the extra systemic “opposition force”
that exists in the power-wielding structures. After the presidential
election [in 2003], effectively all power-wielding structures,
including the defence, national security and interior ministries –
were subjected to a forced purge, were they not?

In general, however, that these people had to lose what they had
already “earned” is not the main point. We have to keep in mind that
the large-scale oil export starts virtually next year. This means
that billions of dollars will start flowing into the country, in
other words, we are witnesses to the struggle for these billions.

So, today there is a need for action for reforms in all sectors which
would be revolutionary in essence. First, it is impossible to fight
against corruption without destroying the corrupt state government
system itself. International organizations say that almost 1.5bn
dollars are illegally shunted out of Azerbaijan every year. How much
money is transferred out of the country in an almost “legal” way?! It
is possible, of course, to naively think that it is manageable to
sooner or later imprison all the corrupt officials. But even if so,
it will do us little good. Because we will be able to confiscate only
the minor part of what has been stolen, which remains in the country
in the form of real estate.

We will not be able to catch a glimpse of the property and capital
that are stored abroad. There are plenty of examples. Few people can
remember Filipino ruler [Ferdinand] Marcos these days. He has been
ousted long ago [in 1986]. However billions of dollars that he stole
from the people of Philippines still remain in the Western banks.
Milosevic is currently tried in by the international tribunal.
However there is not a mention of returning his billions to the
country and its people either.

This is why it would be much more expedient to legalize all the
illegal income and property of everyone. Simultaneously with
legalization, constitutional guarantees of safety of these incomes
and properties, even in case of change of government. Naturally, the
corrupt system itself has to be destroyed. This implies reforming the
whole system of state government, including the system of control
over the economy. These reforms might in a short time lead not only
to the boom in economic development, but also to a dramatic rise in
budget revenues if a sensible tax policy is implemented.

Further, urgent measures are required to improve the social and
political atmosphere in the country. It is inadmissible to declare
the opposition an enemy, even if only a minor part of the population
supports it, as representatives of the ruling party claim. The
authorities and the opposition should be rivalling political
opponents, not enemies, as in our country.

Journalists are assassinated not only in Azerbaijan, but everywhere
in the world, even in the most democratic countries. However, in
those democratic countries the assassination of a well-known
opposition journalist does not bring society to the verge of a
political crisis. This is an indicator of abnormality of the existing
system of political relations in the country. Precisely in the
atmosphere of enmity should be sought the causes of lack of trust
that the authorities are actually interested in solving Huseynov’s
assassination. It is no accident that only the assassination of
Huseynov could force the feuding sides to sit down at the negotiating
table.

In short, the authorities themselves should be interested in
accelerating the process of coming into being of the systemic
opposition, which has disappeared from the political arena. But quite
a logical question arises: how can this be achieved?

In light of the recent events and upcoming parliamentary elections
[in November], there is a need to proceed without delay with
reforming the political system, first and foremost, the electoral
legislation. A fundamental reform of the electoral system should be
carried out, which requires amending the constitution. First of all,
it would be worthwhile to increase the number of deputies to
somewhere around 200 and restore the proportional representation
system. But this is not all yet. The ratio of the deputies elected by
the proportional representation and first-past-the-post system should
be 150 to 50. Overall, the abolition in the past of the proportional
representation system of voting was a mistake that was not in the
interests of even the ruling elite.

However, these sorts of fundamental reforms of the electoral system
require introducing changes to the constitution because the
qualitative and quantitative composition of the parliament is
determined by the constitution. The president himself should come up
with the initiative to carry out reforms. But time is running out. If
the head of state intends to come up with the initiative to conduct a
referendum on constitutional amendments, it is time already to take
this step. After all, public discussion of the proposed
constitutional amendments should take place. So, the head of state
himself will kill two birds with one stone.

First, these constitutional amendments will have full support from
international organizations, first and foremost, from the Council of
Europe. The president will prove that his statement at the Council of
Europe that international community will soon see an unprecedented
level of democracy in Azerbaijan are not just words. Aliyev will
prove that he is really willing to do his best to establish a
European-type multi-party system in Azerbaijan.

Second, this initiative by the head of state will gain support of
effectively all of the opposition, which did not hide its negative
attitude towards the abolition of the proportional representation
system. This step will earn the head of state yet greater authority
even among the part of the population that has opposition sentiments.

Third, the return to the proportional representation system might
prove conducive to appearance in the country of the truly new
systemic opposition, the need for which is voiced by everyone
although effectively no-one does anything to create it. After all,
there are quite a few well know politicians and public figures in the
country who, although they have pro-opposition attitudes, are not
represented for one reason or another in the “traditional” leading
parties. The possibility cannot be ruled out that this group will
found some electoral bloc, which will become a “prototype” of the new
systemic opposition.

Fourth, electing the overwhelming majority of the deputies under the
proportional representation system will make both the election
campaign and the future behaviour of the Milli Maclis [parliament]
rather predictable because in this case the rules of the game will
have to be agreed with just a few players who will represent the
systemic opposition – and there are not going to be many of these.

It has to be taken into account that should the entirely
first-past-the-post system be preserved, neither the authorities, nor
the opposition will be able to influence in any way the campaign of
nomination of candidates for deputy, right? Under the current law, to
be nominated, candidates for deputy have to collect the minimal
number of voter signatures or deposit a relatively small amount of
money. So, effectively any home-bred Mafioso can nominate his
candidature if he wants to. In other words, the election campaign
stands to get out of control.

Furthermore, the outcome of the elections will be just as
unpredictable because in that case the struggle will take place not
between the authorities and the opposition, but first and foremost
between different groups within the ruling elite itself. Each of
these groups will try to use its financial resources and executive
bodies of local self-governments under its control to bring as many
of its people as possible to the parliament.

On the other hand, it has to be taken into account that already at
the current stage the struggle among these groups often transcends
the “bounds of decency”. It suffices to skim through the newspapers
and watch the TV news bulletins to notice that different groups from
the government, presidential administration, parliament and even
pro-government media are involved in this struggle. Leaders of these
groups openly issue threats to one another. In short, there is
“democracy galore” within the ruling elite. Because these “supporters
of democracy”, who possess huge resources, will certainly try to take
advantage of at least relatively democratic situation that will have
to be created during the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Law and order within the ruling team can be restored in two ways.
First, it is possible to clear the team of all the odious old-style
figures and deprive them of resources of influence, including
financial ones. This would be a very painful process. Meanwhile, not
too much time remains till the parliamentary elections to start and
complete this painful process which stands to cause major negative
consequences. Most probably, some partial measures will be taken in
this direction. Incidentally, as it emerged from informed sources in
the ruling elite, the head of state was going to announce a major
government reshuffle before the assassination of Huseynov. One of the
persons from the inner circle of the head of state even compared this
reshuffle to a “tsunami”.

Second, it is possible to create a situation in which no-one will
even think about dictating terms to the head of state. For now, this
is possible if one looks at the parliamentary elections from this
point of view, though. That is to say, he has to take into account
the interests of his entourage when compiling the list of the
deputies. This is difficult, though. But even if this happens, there
are no guarantees that no-one will try to “play his own game” in the
regions. When numerous interests collide, a totally different
situation will take shape. In that case, Aliyev will personally
compile his party’s [New Azerbaijan Party] electoral list for the
proportional representation vote. It is unlikely that anyone will
dare at the party conference to go against the party list proposed by
the head of state. In other words, his entourage will entirely depend
on the leader. In addition, it will be much easier to achieve the
required result under the proportional representation sys! tem.

Finally, decreasing the number of single-seat constituencies to 50
will also bring the potential of local Mafioso to next to nothing and
eliminate unpredictability of the election outcome. So, if the partly
democratic election is held, which is what international
organizations, and first and foremost the Council of Europe, demand
from Baku, we will get a rather predictable parliament with a few
large party factions.

So, we have to make choice…[ellipsis as published].