Ukraine, Georgia discuss alliance
By Humayun Chaudhry

Al-Jazeera, Qatar
March 24 2005

New efforts by Georgia and Ukraine to resuscitate an anti-Russian
axis may prove to be of little benefit considering the alliance’s
last experience.

With President Mikhail Saakashvili visiting Ukraine, Georgia has been
spearheading efforts to revive GUUAM, the acronym for members Georgia,
Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Moldova.

Along with Ukraine’s President Viktor Yushchenko, their joint interest
has been to use it as an economic and political mechanism, tying
the members closer to Europe and the West while reducing Russia’s
traditional dominance.

More economic than political

Valeri Chalyi, director of international programmes at the Ukrainian
Political and Economic Studies Centre, told Aljazeera.net that the
drive to revive the association was more economic than political,
for now.

“Orientation towards the European values is among the priorities of
the GUUAM members”

Valeri Chalyi, Ukrainian Political and Economic Studies Centre

“The attempt at resuscitating GUUAM has been connected to what is being
seen as the new opportunities for economic and security interaction in
the Black Sea-Caspian region. They have been frozen in recent times,”
he said.

Chalyi said the political priority of GUUAM’s revival was the
transportation of energy, attraction of new investments and the
political consolidation of GUUAM members.

The expansion of GUUAM was a key plank in talks between Yushchenko
and Saakashvili on Thursday.

Relations with EU

Chalyi thinks Saakashvili and Yushchenko’s interest in GUUAM is linked
to relations with the European Union.

“Orientation towards the European values is among the priorities of
the GUUAM members,” he said.

“By virtue of its geopolitical situation, economic potential and
clear orientation to the European model of development, Ukraine has
interest in being a leadership force for the organisation.”

However, Jonathan Cohen, programme manager for the Caucasus region
for Conciliation Resources, a London-based organisation specialising
in conflict resolution, says that the GUUAM originally failed when
it was set up in 1997 “because its framework made it impossible to
resolve problems of interstate cooperation, namely, its relations
with the CIS”.

The Commonwealth of Independent States emerged after the break-up of
the Soviet Union in 1991.

GUUAM’s failure

Cohen said GUUAM withered after members failed in the late 1990s to
create a regional free-trade zone, increase mutual trade turnover
and realise ambitious energy projects.

Russia maintains military bases in all the GUUAM countries

“Now, Ukraine and other members of the GUUAM stand a chance for
revitalising its authority, although the position of both Uzbekistan
and Azerbaijan is still uncertain.

“The project could be revived in the context of attracting under
its aegis other countries outside the post-Soviet space,” he told
Aljazeera.net.

The EU and Washington’s attitude to the organisation in the late 1990s
was that it had nothing to offer and the US administration had taken
a strong tilt towards Russia at the time.

Political winds

After governments were toppled in Georgia and Ukraine, GUUAM’s
ability to muster political credibility has not been forthcoming;
former alliance members still seem to be uncertain of where they
stand with its revival today.

Neither Yushchenko nor Saakashvili has managed to persuade Azerbaijan
or Uzbekistan to rejoin the union, potential new member Armenia was
ruled out, and Moldova has stated no interest in a reunion.

Russia has military bases in all GUUAM countries and retains political
influence with the countries Russian minorities (including in
Trans-Dniester, a tiny self-declared Russian-led republic in Moldova)

Russia’s overreaction

“Russia tends to overreact to developments in those republics”

Jonathan Cohen, Conciliation Resources

“The former Soviet republics pose little threat to Russia and its
interests itself,” says Cohen, of Conciliation Resources.

“Russia tends to overreact to developments in those republics. Since
the elections in Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova, Moscow has tended to
imagine threats emanating from virtually everywhere.”

He added: “Shadowboxing may cost Russia and its positions in the CIS
dearly. It should probably pay no attention to GUUAM, and its political
deadlock will once again constrain any alliance’s ability to act.”