Turkish columnist views alleged disagreement between premier, foreign minister

Hurriyet web site, Istanbul
21 Mar 05

Text of column by Erdal Saglam, “Why is the government deadlocked?”,
published by Turkish daily Hurriyet web site on 21 March

Although the prime minister, his aides, and other ministers are
denying it, everybody sees that there has been a standstill lately
preventing the government from making certain necessary decisions.
When you talk to them personally, most ministers admit that there is
such a standstill.

Business circles are disturbed by the government’s inertia although
they are not saying it openly. The fact that Prime Minister [Recep
Tayyip] Erdogan is responding sharply to criticisms is deterring
business organizations from voicing their criticisms openly because
they do not want to find themselves involved in a public debate.

Businessmen are saying they could easily tell in recent meetings with
the prime minister and his close aides that they were demoralized.
They are saying that all advisers to the prime minister looked
discouraged and crestfallen. It is being said that some ministers
have the same air [of discouragement].

What, then, is responsible for the standstill and the government’s
inertia and discouragement? Actually, Ankara has been asking this
question frequently and seeking an answer to it for about a month.
The conjectures proposed as answers to this question mostly refer to
international relations. It is being said that above all there is a
defeatist attitude within the [ruling] AKP [Justice and Development
Party] concerning the EU, that opinion polls conducted by the AKP might
have yielded results to that effect and that this could have made the
government indecisive. Some commentators are saying that these polls
could be one reason why the government has not been taking concrete
steps concerning the EU.

Relations with the United States are as much the focus of such
conjectures as the EU. Political circles are calling attention to
the fact that the US Administration appears to have adopted a harsher
attitude towards the ruling AKP and withdrawn its support for it and
that the United States might have certain major demands from the ruling
AKP unknown to the public and likely to place the AKP in a difficult
situation. Among these demands are the opening of the Armenian border
gate and a more intensive utilization of the Incirlik Air Base.

However, there are those suspecting that even these demands do not
explain the defeatist attitude of the government. Certain people who
believe that there are more important reasons [for the government’s
inertia] are saying that the United States might for example have
asked that its troops in Iraq be replaced with Turkish troops when
they are withdrawn sometime in the autumn. It is being pointed out
that Turkey might have been told that its demands concerning Cyprus
and Kirkuk [north Iraq] could be met in return. Particularly, this
idea sounds like a conspiracy theory yet there are quite a number of
people who say that it might well be true.

[Foreign Minister Abdullah] Gul acts like prime minister yet…

Meanwhile, it is being said that intra-party rows are playing a role
in inducing inertia on the government’s part. It is being asserted
that the party administration is in a fix particularly as regards
the issue of corruption, that it cannot expel certain people whose
names appear in dossiers that the party leadership cannot disclose,
and that for this reason there are disagreements in the party.

It is also being rumoured that the struggle for power between Prime
Minister Erdogan and Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Gul has started to
build up. Analysts point out that Gul has lately been making frequent
public appearances and that he is trying to appear to be cooperating
with the prime minister even as he is saying that the government is
making mistakes. They say that this long-discussed conflict might
have grown intense because of the [corruption] dossiers that have
been compiled.

Meanwhile, it is noteworthy that Gul is talking like a prime minister
about all topics from the economy to internal politics. Erdogan’s
close aides were offended for example at the fact that Gul met with
investors in London last week and discussed the economy. They are
even criticizing State Minister Ali Babacan who they found out had
organized the said meeting.

Those who listened to Gul’s speech at the Building Contractor’s
Association last week are saying that while dwelling on every subject
from relations with the IMF to politics, Gul delivered what was on
the whole a defensive address. Pointing out that Gul remained on the
defensive in this speech in order to get across the message that the
government is not behind schedule, building contractors said that
Gul failed to present a vision.

In short, the deadlock in the government is well known while the
rumoured reasons for it are various.