Houston Chronicle, TX
March 27 2005

Kremlin worried over latest uprising

Kyrgyzstan president’s ouster could spell trouble for authoritarian
Soviet republics
By ALEX RODRIGUEZ
Knight Ridder Tribune News

BISHKEK, KYRGYZSTAN – The latest democratic uprising to claim a
former Soviet republic had Moscow buzzing with trepidation: How many
more dominoes can fall?

ADVERTISEMENT

With Kremlin ally Askar Akayev ousted from power in Kyrgyzstan, a
debate in Russia has ensued over whether the fever for democracy can
take root in the rest of Central Asia or reach harsh, autocratic
regimes such as Alexander Lukashenko’s in Belarus.

Analysts say the Kremlin is finding itself increasingly powerless to
stanch the creep of democracy into former Soviet republics it still
covets. “It’s unfortunate that yet again in the post-Soviet space,
political problems in a country are resolved illegally and are
accompanied by pogroms and human victims,” Russian President Vladimir
Putin said in a visit to Yerevan, Armenia’s capital.

For the United States, the Kyrgyz uprising could potentially provide
an anchor of democratic stability in the volatile Central Asia
region.

In a little less than a year and a half, three former Soviet
republics ~W Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan ~W have undergone
revolutions seeded by anger over rigged or flawed elections.

Experts say the thirst for genuine civil society in the remaining
former Soviet republics is powerful and enduring.

“I think there are strong chances that the opposition might succeed
in countries neighboring Kyrgyzstan,” said Zeyno Baran, a Central
Asia affairs analyst for the Washington-based Nixon Center.

In the former Soviet republics, dissent is often silenced with
torture or imprisonment.

In Turkmenistan, where Saparmurad Niyazov has declared himself
president for life, political opposition virtually does not exist.

Uzbekistan’s president, Islam Karimov, heads a virtual police state
with a history of jailing political opponents and suppressing
religious freedoms.

Oil-rich Kazakhstan is an unlikely venue for change: Though regarded
as authoritarian, President Nursultan Nazarbayev has made strides
improving his country’s economy.