Upcoming votes in ex-Soviet nations gain urgency after ‘revolutions’

Agence France Presse — English
March 27, 2005 Sunday 11:46 AM GMT

MOSCOW March 27 — Georgia, Ukraine, now Kyrgyzstan — these ex-Soviet
nations all had longtime pro-Russian regimes swept out after protests
over disputed polls. Against this background, the electoral calendar in
former Soviet nations is being carefully watched in Moscow and abroad.

Herewith a list of elections (in chronological order) in the countries
that comprise the Commonwealth of Indpendent States (CIS), which
includes all former Soviet republics except for the Baltic States.

REVOLUTION DREAMING?

Most CIS countries have yet to witness the kind of massive protests
that swept through Georgia in November 2003, Ukraine late last year
and Kyrgyzstan last week.

AZERBAIJAN
Parliamentary: November 2005
Presidential: October 2008

The oil-rich nation of eight million on the western coast of the
Caspian Sea is currently ruled by Ilham Alieyv, who succeeded his
father Heidar to the presidency in October 2003.

The leadership has been heavily criticized for stiffling dissent,
both by jailing opposition members and muzzling an independent press.
The recent murder of an opposition journalist unleashed a wave of
protests in the capital.

Observers say it could be ripe for a revolution, fed in part by the
fact that half the population lives below the poverty line despite
the country’s wealth of natural resources. Demonstrations that flared
after the younger Aliyev’s election were put down by riot police and
left at least two people dead, dozens injured and nearly 200
arrested.

BELARUS
Parliamentary: fall 2008
Presidential: 2006 (exact date yet to be determined)

The small agricultural republic of 10 million sandwiched between
Russia, the Baltics, Ukraine and Poland has been ruled by Alexader
Lukashenko since 1994. His hardline policies have earned him the
moniker of being Europe’s last dictator and have seen the United
States and much of western Europe refuse him entry over his poor
human rights effort.

The nation has a lively, albeit underground opposition, including the
Zubr youth movement. Lukashenko has repeatedly warned that he would
harshly react to any attempts at revolution.

TAJIKISTAN
Parliamentary: February 2010
Presidential: November 2006

The impoverished mountainous Central Asian nation of seven million on
the northern border of Afghanistan has been headed by Emomali
Rakhmonov since 1992.

The opposition has a tiny representation in parliament and the
nation’s remaining opposition newspapers were closed down last year
for tax infractions.

Any revolutionary fervor in the nation is held in check by memories
of a brutal civil war that raged in the country between 1992 and
1997, which resulted in up to 150,000 deaths.

KAZAKHSTAN
Parliamentary: October 2009
Presidential: December 2006

The oil-rich nation of 15 million on the northeastern edge of the
Caspian Sea has been ruled by Nursultan Nazarbayev since 1991.

Nazarbayev has governed his large steppe nation with a strong hand.
Many opposition media have been closed down and opposition figures
jailed.

Although the Nazarbayev family has faced criticism over its
disproporational influence in the economy, overall the nation is
better off than Azerbaijan, a fellow oil-rich country across the
Caspian Sea, with 26 percent of the population living below the
poverty line.

UZBEKISTAN
Parliamentary: December 2009
Presidential: January 2007

The landlocked nation of 26 million on the northern border of
Afghanistan has been ruled with an iron fist by Islam Karimov since
1990.

Karimov’s relentless campaign against radical Islamists has landed
many practicing Muslims in jail, feeding discontent with his rule
along with the nation’s poverty.

The regime has been accused of massive human rights violations,
including widespread torture by police and in prisons. Karimov is
likely to move harshly against any revolutionary attempts at his
rule.

RUSSIA
Parliamentary: December 2007
Presidential: March 2008

The former superpower of 150 million people has been ruled by an
ex-KGB colonel since New Year’s Eve 1999-2000, when Russia’s first
post-Soviet leader Boris Yeltsin resigned abruptly, leaving his
relatively obscure prime minister Vladimir Putin in charge.

Putin, who was elected to his first term three months later and won
reelection to a second and final mandate in March 2004, has turned
increasingly more authoritarian during his years in power, moving
against independent television and critical political opponents.

Observers say any revolutionary attempt in Russia would be met by
fierce resistance by members of security services, both acting and
alumni, who have come to positions of power under Putin’s watch.

ARMENIA
Parliamentary: 2007 (exact date to be announced)
Presidential: 2008 (exact date to be announced)

The poor country of three million has been ruled by Robert Kocharian
since 1998.

It has traditionally enjoyed strong ties with Moscow, which it sees
as partly a security guarantee against its regional rival Azerbaijan
to the east (with which it fought a war over the contested
Nagorno-Karabakh enclave after the Soviet collapse) and Turkey to the
west.

TURKMENISTAN
Parliamentary: 2009
Presidential: —

The gas-rich nation of nearly five million on the eastern edge of the
Caspian Sea has been dominated by authoritarian Saparmurat Niyazov
since 1985, with his first election to the post of president coming
in 1990.

The flamboyant Niyazov has had himself announced president for life,
though he has voiced plans to hold a presidential election in 2007,
and refers to himself as Turkmenbashi (father of all Turkmens).
Statues to himself dot most cities and villages, the biggest cult of
personality on former Soviet soil since Josef Stalin died in 1053.

The country has no public opposition and no independent press.

POST-REVOLUTION

Elections in the countries that have undergone their revolutions will
be the first tests for the regimes who replaced the Moscow-friendly
authorities.

KYRGYZSTAN
Parliamentary: date to be determined
Presidential: June 26 2006

The small mountainous nation of five million on China’s western edge
will choose its next leader in June, after veteran president Askar
Akayev, who had ruled the nation since 1990, fled the country on
March 24 after protestors overran the main seat of government in the
capital.

Akayev was considered the most liberal of rulers in ex-Soviet Central
Asia. The former opposition chiefs who have assumed interim power
have vowed to continue his Russia-friendly policies.

UKRAINE
Parliamentary: November 2005
Presidential: October 2008

The nation of 48 million people on Russia’s eastern border swept out
a Moscow-friendly regime in favor of a pro-Western leader, Viktor
Yushchenko, during last year’s “orange revolution,” the peaceful
protests after a presidential election.

As part of a compromise that ended the tense standoff between the
then opposition and the regime, Ukraine’s constitution was changed,
transferring many presidential powers to parliament.

Thus next year’s parliamentary elections will be a crucial test for
the “orange revolution.” Yushchenko won the presidency during
subsequent elections held on December 26 with 52 percent of the vote.

GEORGIA
Parliamentary: 2008
Presidential: 2009

The poor nation of nearly five million people on the eastern coast of
the Black Sea peace swept out a Soviet-era regime of Eduard
Shevardnadze during the “rose revolution,” peaceful protests sparked
by a parliamentary poll in November 2003.

Mikhail Saakashvili was elected in a landslide with nearly 97 percent
of the vote

MOLDOVA
Parliamentary: 2009
Presidential: elected by parliament

The nation of nearly five million sandwiched between Ukraine and
Romania is considered Europe’s most impoverished country and has been
ruled by Vladimir Voronin since 2001.

In the months ahead of this year’s parliamentary elections the ruling
Communist party abandoned its Moscow-friendly platform and preached a
pro-Western course, leading to quips that the revolution in Moldova
occurred imperceptibly.