Which Country Is Up Next for a Revolution?
By Henry Meyer
The Associated Press, March 28, 2005

Who’s next? That’s the question strongmen in former Soviet lands are
asking themselves nervously after Kyrgyzstan became the third country
in the region to be swept by revolution.

In neighboring countries in Central Asia, opposition politicians sense
it’s their turn to re-enact the drama of 1989, when democracy swept
much of Eastern Europe as the Soviet empire started to crumble.

Kazakhstan, a vast, energy-rich nation where Western oil firms have
invested billions of dollars, is seen by many analysts as the next
target for a popular uprising. Possible ramifications abound: In
addition to oil — also a factor in Azerbaijan — the region has
Islamic fundamentalist movements suspected of links to terrorism, an
active drug trade, U.S. and Russian military bases, strategic
positioning on China’s doorstep, and no firm guarantees that any new
leaders would be more democratic than the current crop.

Russia has looked on with anxiety at the upheaval in its former Soviet
backyard, as allies in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan have been
toppled in succession and without regard to its wishes. It sees the
trend as a deep strategic threat to its role as the dominant regional
power.

A momentous process is unfolding in Central Asia and the Caucasus,
said Yevgeny Volk, Moscow director of the conservative
Washington-based Heritage Foundation think tank.

“These countries are facing a radical change of power, which did not
happen in the early 1990s,” he said.

“Unlike the Baltic states, which quickly adopted a market economy,
democratic society and rule of law, and Russia to a much lesser
extent, in Central Asia and the Caucasus, the communist-era leaders
stayed in power, which bred corruption and authoritarianism. … But
now the time is ripe for revolutions.”

The United States encouraged the Georgian and Ukrainian pro-Western
reformers now in charge. In Central Asia, seen as a vital source of
energy and a bulwark against Islamic radicalism, it favors stability
but is tentatively distancing itself from corrupt regimes that are
fanning religious extremism.

In Kazakhstan, President Nursultan Nazarbayev, a former Communist boss
who has been in power since 1989, will be seeking another seven-year
term next year. He contemptuously blamed Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev
on Friday for his “weakness” in allowing “rioters and thugs” to oust him.

But despite a crackdown on independent media and the opposition, the
64-year-old Nazarbayev is in trouble because of alleged nepotism amid
widespread poverty and his opponents’ growing popularity.

Last week, the long-fractured opposition chose as its single candidate
for the 2006 presidential vote Zharmakhan Tuyakbai — a former top
Nazarbayev ally who resigned last year as parliament speaker and head
of the presidential party.

“In Kazakhstan, if the government tries to falsify the election
results, the same scenario as in Kyrgyzstan cannot be ruled out,” said
Andrei Piontkovsky, an independent analyst.

In Uzbekistan, where thousands of political prisoners languish in
jails, hardline President Islam Karimov’s repressive rule with an
omnipresent secret police is seen as sufficient — for now — to keep
the lid on any unrest. But observers worry that after Kyrgyzstan,
Islamic radicals could launch an attempt to unseat Karimov.

Outside Central Asia, the likeliest candidate for revolution is seen
as Armenia, a key Russian ally on Russia’s southern flank in the
unstable Caucasus region. President Robert Kocharyan, whose contested
re-election to a second term in 2003 sparked opposition protests,
faces fresh elections for parliament and the presidency in 2007.

Critics say he has violently cracked down on dissent, allowed
corruption to flourish and done little to improve the lot of the people.

In Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev in 2003 succeeded his late father, Heidar
Aliyev, the longtime ruler in the Caspian state, marking the first
political dynasty in a former Soviet republic. The country will hold
parliamentary elections in November this year, which the opposition
sees as its best opportunity for change.

In Belarus, opposition activists staged a rally Friday in the capital
that was violently broken up by police. The opposition said it was
trying to start an uprising similar to Kyrgyzstan’s.

“Who’s next?” Noviye Izvestia asked on its front page Friday. “The
Kyrgyz precedent cannot fail to worry the leaders of other countries,
especially those countries where in the near future parliamentary and
presidential elections will be held.”