The Messenger
Tuesday, March 29, 2005, #056 (0830)

After Kyrgyzstan

For Georgia, democratic change in other CIS countries can be regarded as
wholly positive

The recent upheaval in Kyrgyzstan cannot be described exactly as a velvet
revolution in the mold of the recent revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine,
although there were clearly some similarities, and the precedent set in
Tbilisi and Kiev doubtless played a part in the events that unfolded in
Bishkek.

Several analysts suggested after Ukraine’s Orange Revolution that Kyrgyzstan
might be the next contender to be affected by the “wave of liberation” that
Saakashvili and Yushchenko described back in January as rolling across
post-Soviet space. And although instability and uncertainty have taken hold
of Kyrgyzstan and it is far from clear what will be the final outcome there,
already some commentators have turned their attention elsewhere and are
speculating which country will be next. Given that Armenia and Azerbaijan
have both been mentioned in this context, this is clearly of importance for
Georgia.

2003 was a year of elections for the three countries of the South Caucasus.
In Armenia President Kocharian won re-election in the presidential poll,
while his party came out on top in the parliamentary. In Azerbaijan,
meanwhile, the presidential election was won by Heidar Aliev’s son Ilham.
The opposition in both countries failed, and although election observers
condemned the elections as marred by irregularities, the results stood. The
same was expected in Georgia, but here the events developed very
differently, the people taking to the streets in protest at the falsified
elections, bringing about the first velvet revolution in post-Soviet space.

Since then governments relying on the falsification of elections to ensure
their longevity have been ousted in Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, while democratic
steps have been taken in Moldova, and the possibility of change in other CIS
countries seems all the greater.

Many analysts believe that there is a real possibility of democratic change
in Armenia, where the 2003 elections were condemned as fraudulent. The
internal political situation there has changed as a direct result of the
revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia, and many believe that the government
will not again be able to get away with falsifying the elections, although
as German Foundation of Scientific and Political Development Uwe Halbach
notes, “The only problem in Armenia is that they do not have a Saakashvili
who will be able to mobilize the country and change it in a peaceful way,”
as quoted by Rezonansi. Should Armenia find an opposition leader behind whom
they can unite, this would pose a serious threat to the current
administration.

In Azerbaijan, meanwhile, the various opposition parties are planning to
unite to fight the parliamentary elections slated for this autumn. Ilham
Aliev, who was able to win the 2003 presidential election only by
manipulating the process, will be under severe pressure, although, as in
Armenia, whether the opposition will be able to organize themselves to
capitalize on the expected electoral irregularities remains to be seen. As
in Georgia and Ukraine, much will depend on Western election observers to
quickly provide an objective opinion on the fairness and openness of the
election process.

One important factor here is that the opposition parties in Ukraine and
Georgia were notably western-oriented, and both Yushchenko and Saakashvili
have expressed their desire to lead their countries into NATO and the
European Union. In Armenia, in particular, such a western-orientated
government coming to power is made less likely by the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue; but some analysts believe that the continuing existence of the frozen
conflict makes a velvet revolution less likely.

For Georgia, democratic change in other CIS countries can be regarded as
wholly positive. Following the Rose Revolution, Georgia was more or less
isolated within the CIS, but since the Orange revolution it has gained an
important ally with similar problems and goals in Ukraine. Velvet
revolutions elsewhere, Georgians hope, will lead to the creation of more
friends.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress