Journal of Turkish Weekly
March 29 2005

Next Target is Armenia?

Davut SAHINER (JTW) After Georgia and Ukraine, `velvet revolution’
hit Kyrgyzstan. President Askar Akayev has fled the country, and
opposition MP Ishenbai Kadyrbekov was named acting president, hours
after demonstrators overran the presidential palace in the capital,
Bishkek.

Gangs of looters roamed through the city overnight, ransacking shops
and setting fire to buildings. At least three people are reported to
have died during the unrest. However it is understood that Kyrgyzstan
has faced a popular movement.

The US named the `revolution’ democratic, while Russia and the
neighboring Central Asia states are worried.

For many IR experts Kyrgyzstan is the latest stage of `the
democratization process’ triggered by the United States in the
`greater Middle East and Eastern Europe, from Ukraine to China
borders. Nese Mesudoglu from Sabah, Turkish daily paper, argues that
the US uses George Soros and his foundations-societies in order to
undermine the existing `un-democratic’ governments. `Velvet
revolutions follow Soros. When Soros goes a country, a revolution or
unrest visit that country’ Sabah says. Not surprisingly the Bishkek
Soros Foundation was there before the `revolution’ and it is a
well-known fact that the foundation was making great assistance to
the opposition groups under the name of `education and
democratization’. The budget of the Bishkek Soros Foundation is about
4 million dollars. Soros had made financial assistance to the
Serbian, Ukrainian and Georgian oppositions.

Soros has foundations and societies in 30 countries. It is claimed
that he supported opposition in Malaysia and Venezuela as well.

Withdrawal of the Russian Empire

It can be argued that the US continues to implement the `Greater
Middle East Initiative’. The Initiative has two columns: Military
Operations and Democratization Operations. In the second column, the
US encourages the opposing groups and minorities to overturn the
existing `dictatorial administrations’ or `anti-American powers’. In
almost all countries experienced velvet revolutions the power was
belong to the anti-American groups, and all these governments had
good relations with Russia. Kyrgyzstan is a peculiar case, because
the Kyrgyzstan case can be considered as message not only to the
Russians but also to the Chinese. The country is at the crossroads of
Russia, China, India-Pakistan and the Turkic-Islamic World. Possibly,
it is the greatest gain for the US `Greater Middle Eastern Project’.
Kyrgyzstan is a perfect `base’ to control Russian and Chinese
politics in the region and to watch drug trafficking.

Next Target: Belarus or Armenia?

Kyrgyzstan is the latest example for the silk revolutions but not the
last one. Many expects that the revolution wave will continue.
Belarus is one of the possible candidates, but Armenia is the easiest
one. President Robert Kocherian, Karabakh veteran, dominates the
Armenian politics. He has very close relations with Russia and keeps
the opposition under pressure.

As Emil Danielyan pointed out `the ruling regime has heavily relied
on the oligarchs to manipulate elections and bully its political
opponents, making it doubtful that any serious action will be taken
to rein them in. They are able to bribe and intimidate local voters
and resort to other election falsification techniques. Ballot box
stuffing was commonplace during the 2003 presidential election, which
Western observers described as undemocratic.’ (Jamestown). The
overwhelming majority of the Armenian population thinks that Armenian
political system is not democratic and there is no hope for the
future. The opposition started a huge campaign last year but
Kocherian with his armed supporters from Karabakh severely suppressed
the civil movement. Many were prisoned and tortured including very
young and women. There are Russian military bases in Armenia and
Kocherian Government is seen as the `only Russian ally’ in the
Caucasus. Armenia also has good relations with Iran. The FBI
investigates Armenian-Iranian connections in weapon trade and
terrorism. There are a pro-Western governments in Azerbaijan and
Georgia.

Armenian PM: Revolution in Armenia is Impossible

Prime Minister Andranik Markarian said on 28 March 2005 Monday that
his government is striving to keep Armenia unaffected by the wave of
successful anti-government uprisings across the former Soviet and is
confident that it can weather the storm. `We are trying to make sure
that the revolutionary wave doesn’t reach us,’ Markarian told RFE/RL,
reacting to last week’s dramatic ouster of Kyrgyzstan’s longtime
autocratic president, Askar Akayev.

`In my view, democracy is developing in our country. Of course, not
everything is all right. But the difference is huge. We have no
problems with the economy… So I don’t see grounds for the people to
get out, change government and then go on a rampage,’ Markarian
added.

However Dr. Sedat Laciner from International Strategic Research
Organization thinks different: `Armenia could be the next target. As
a matter of fact that many revolution attempts in Armenian were
suppressed by the existing Government.’

Revised edition
29 March 2005