SCENARIO OF A COLORFUL REVOLUTION IN ARMENIA IS POSSIBLY IN PROCESS

Azg/arm
6 April 05

The ghost of revolution roaming in post-soviet states will make our
authorities reconsider the foreign policy if we, certainly, do not
want to appear under the ruins of new geopolitical events.

Daily Azg talks with Stepan Safarian, expert from the Center for
National and International Studies.

– Amidst nowaday geopolitical developments, Armenia’s integration into
the EU is viewed as the only reliable path for progress. But it’s
not a primary issue today for our state. And Putin’s visit showed,
to put it roughly, that we cannot pin hopes on our ally any more.

– I think that our state is not to be jerky as regards its foreign
policy doctrines, thinking that it may pose a threat to the existence
of authorities or even the state. An impasse emerges. It turns out
that we stressed things that needed fewer accents. It turns out that
it was useless, for one, to cooperate with Russia in military sphere
as who will the Russian troops defend us from if Turkey becomes an
EU member? From the EU?

But does the solution of different issues concerning our security go
hand in hand with the civilized divorce from Russia? If the agreement
of Collective Security of the CIS countries is also viewed in the
context of civilized divorce, if the agreement will be annulled if
not today then tomorrow, what kind of security system will we have?

There is a serious demand within Armenia today to stick to the
European path. Our Center conducted a poll last year on this matter.
64 percent of respondents were for European integration believing
that Armenia will join the EU in future.

– In effect, our complementary policy did not justify itself.

– The complementary policy is for states that have covered certain
distance. Generally we need 3 levels to pass to complementary policy.

The first one is when we take our stand in our own country, and the
state productively organizes its socio-political life. The second one
is the level of competitive strength, i.e. our potential to compete
with other states and the third one is creating a network with other
states. I mean that complementarism is a kind of network thinking.
That’s a truism that we should have known. Without having overcome
first two stages we declared the third one.

– Based on what you said, do you think it possible that Armenia will
become an axis of the next colorful revolution?

– Definitely yes. There are several moments that stand for my
assertion. Particularly, the West’s complaints reflected in numerous
reports on Armenia. Secondly, the USA is somehow controlling this
process. Last year US senators, congressmen and high-ranking officials
from the State Department sent letters to 9 CIS leaders who had
previously signed a statement against the OSCE. The CIS states that
received America’s letters are the ones where upheaval was to be
expected. This list includes Leonid Kuchma and the Kyrgyz president
and apparently all other state leaders who hinted of living through
their last days in power.

The next important issue is that the inner political structure of
Armenia did not reflect the outer picture of the rapidly changing
world. The elections of 2002-2003 did not bring about changes of the
system. We live with our old configurations in a changed world. And
this situation leaves door open for revolution.

– In this context how do you see our confrontation with Azerbaijan
over Karabakh issue?

At the Congress hearings in US last month an opinion was voiced about
desirability of changes especially in Armenia. It was mentioned that
the Armenian Diaspora strongly stymies putting pressure on Armenia.

Everything depends on how things will develop in Azerbaijan. If we
accept that the parliamentary election in fall of the current year
will be free, the opposition will take seats at the parliament and
the authorities will put up with it, then I think Armenian issues
will be viewed separately. But if elections in Azerbaijan are ragged,
which is highly possible, then the two states will face change of
power for the sake of Karabakh issue.

– Is that possible that a scenario for Armenia is already launched?

– It’s not excluded but telling the truth I was more concerned with
Putin’s visit when he declared that he came to Yerevan on the Armenia
side’s invitation. Armenia’s strivings to keep to the Russian track
and developing mutual relations may be fatal for the authorities. I
mean that extra elections may well be held.

– Does that mean that the West may intervene?

– Yes I do, especially when the political system is on a very low
level of legitimacy.

By Karine Danielian