Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
April 11, 2005, Monday
A CASUS BELLI IS EVIDENT
SOURCE: Voyenno-Promyshlenny Kurier, No. 12, April 6-12, 2005, p. 3
by Dzhasur Mamedov
The ceasefire was violated on the line where the Azerbaijani &
Armenian forces contact some 45 times over the past two months alone.
It should be reminded that the reciprocal treaty, which ceased the
military phase of the conflict due to Nagorny Karabakh, has been in
effect since 1994. If the situation was extremely tense until 1997,
and resumption of military operations was expected every day, the
situation changed noticeably in 1997-2005. One may assert, though,
that the majority of Azerbaijanis are confident the war will be
resumed. For instance, a poll done in Baku of late indicates: some
60% of young men say the Karabakh problem could only be adjusted by
use of weapons. Only 30% believe peaceful settlement is possible.
At this time, the ceasefire is being mainly violated in the Agdam,
Terter, Fizuli and Kazakh districts, as a rule on mornings and
evenings. The fusillade is heard from both sides.
The “seasonal nature” of skirmishes is clear too: they are aggravated
twice a year – from September to December and from February to March.
According to observers, this is not accidental. This is how each side
determines the public response both to the peace talks and resumption
of the war.
According to military experts, the losses of the Azerbaijani and
Armenian troops have been the largest of late. It should be noted
that 8 troopers were killed and one more wounded in the Azerbaijani
armed forces in February-March 2003, against the background of 6
kills and 7 wounded servicemen over the same period of 2004. Quite
often, this wasn’t a result of attacks from the direction of Armenia.
Figures for February-March 2005 differ: 30 Azerbaijani servicemen
killed and 40 wounded, mainly by bullets of Armenian shooters. In
addition, 3 Azerbaijani servicemen got captured by Armenians in
February 2005. The liberation talks are fruitless so far.
At the same time, 20 Armenian troopers were killed too, independent
sources say (neither official Baku, nor official Yerevan provide
exact casualties). Thus, the several past months have been murderous
for both sides involved in the conflict.
Meanwhile, the idea of resuming the war is in the air. Attempts of
preparing public opinion for it are noted in both countries. Over the
course of conversations with military experts, political consultants
and journalists in the past two months, I am certain that these
well-informed people are not confident that real battles won’t occur
soon. Moreover, many of them maintain that the situation on the line
of Azerbaijani-Armenian confrontation is likely to exacerbate.
Undoubtedly, statements by Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov of
Azerbaijan are optimistic. In his opinion, some forces are “seeking
escalation” to annul success of the peace talks. “However, similar
cases are natural when rapprochement is evident in actions of both
sides,” Mamedyarov noted.
Harsh statements by Baku and Yerevan officials thicken the tension.
For instance, Colonel General Safar Abiyev, defense minister of
Azerbaijan, has said of late that “the war will continue when the
peace is absent” and warned the opposite side that Azerbaijani
positions along the frontline would be strengthened. Answering
questions of reporters Abiyev didn’t rule out that large-scale
military operations might begin.
Colonel Ramiz Melikov, press secretary of the Azerbaijani Defense
Ministry stated of late, “We call Armenians for leaving our lands. If
Armenia offers resistance, it will face adequate retaliation and
we’ll reclaim our territories.” The colonel still hopes that the
conflict could be solved peacefully. However, “other versions will
have to be used if the potential of talks gets below 5%.”
According tothe Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, the strain on the
frontline has three causes. Colonel Melikov enumerated them: firstly,
because PACE recognized Armenia as an aggressor nation and the forces
operating in Nagorny Karabakh – as separatist forces. Secondly,
“revealed have been the plans of Armenian settlement in Karabakh and
other occupied territories while OSCE did its monitoring.” Thirdly,
outrage and lack of discipline reigns in the Armenian troops
stationed in the occupied territories. “The latest events clearly
reflect the point of what I’m saying: each Armenian soldier who gets
weapons in his hands is striving to get our positions under fire,”
says Melikov.
However, statements by President Ilham Aliyev are more significant.
In his opinion, tension on the ceasefire line is another provocation
of Armenia. He noted that if Armenians change for the offensive, it
will be retaliated immediately.
(…) Aliyev noted with regard to the latest local passages of arms
that the war may begin any moment now, but corrected himself right
away, “We are yet to build up a developed economy and strong army
before launching the war.”
Yerevan gives an adequate reply, “The Armed Forces of Azerbaijan were
seeking destabilization of the situation, which results in various
incidents,” says Serzhik Sarkisyan, defense minister of Armenia. In
his words, “the one who has at least the slightest idea of the
essence of this conflict realizes that developing or approximating
its positions is senseless for Armenia, since it occupied the
advantageous positions in 1994. Therefore, no matter how long
Azerbaijani spokesmen might say that Armenia is violating the
armistice, this is all lies.”
Asked whether or not local skirmishes will develop into more serious
collisions, Sarkisyan stated that it is unlikely to be ruled out.
In their turn, heads of armed groups in unrecognized Nagorny Karabakh
hold the opinion that frequent skirmishes result in actions of
subversive groups from Azerbaijan. This is how the “Azerbaijani side
is trying to move its positions,” they say. However, “any attempts of
the opposed party to impair the security in Karabakh will be
suppressed.”
Unfortunately, leaders of various nongovernmental organizations come
out with harsh statements. Thus, Akif Nagi, chairman of the Karabakh
Liberation Organization (OOK) told us, “Azerbaijan must deny peace
talks with Armenia in the adjustment of the Karabakh conflict.”
According to Nagi, OOK has already prepared its platform for
liberating Nagorny Karabakh by force.
Nagi thinks a dangerous trend is observed in Azerbaijani society now:
the authorities, the opposition and ordinary citizens are displaying
indifference to the Karabakh problem. According to Nagi, widespread
in Azerbaijan is the following formula for settlement of the Karabakh
conflict, “If the peace talks fail, our country will solve the
problem by force.” “This is a dangerous standing. The recent events
indicate that Armenia has no intention to liberate the Azerbaijani
area it has occupied,” Nagi stressed.
He noted that Azerbaijan must deny the abovementioned settlement
formula and choose to solve the problem by use of force. According to
Nagi, each Azerbaijani must wear a military uniform and fight for
liberation of the occupied territories.
Nagi said that Azerbaijani authorities must pass a certain decision
and declare to the world that our country is preparing for a war.
However, says Alekper Mamedov, director of the Azerbaijani Center for
Democratic Control over the Army, official Baku must suppress all
attempts of undermining the fragile peace in Trans-Caucasia.
“Azerbaijani diplomacy now has an opportunity to solve the problem
peacefully. This is why it must be very tolerant. If the political
approach yields no required results, this is when military solution
of the conflict must be considered,” the expert says.
Meanwhile, the law on mobilization and mobilization of reserves must
be discussed at the spring session of the Azerbaijani parliament. The
practice of military assemblies is likely to be revived in the
country. However, Ziyafat Askerov, chairman of the parliamentary
defense & security commission has no intention to regard similar
measures as preparations for war. Nevertheless, says Askerov, the
country must be prepared for it, since the Azerbaijani territory is
occupied.
The general conclusion of Azerbaijani experts is as follows: if the
tension doesn’t subside at the ceasefire line in a short time,
military operations might be resumed – first locally and in May-June
2005 we might have to witness the start of a new Armenian-Azerbaijani
war.