Europe Information Service
European Report
April 13, 2005

FOREIGN AFFAIRS COUNCIL: LUXEMBOURG ‘GYMNICH’ LOOKS AT ‘FROZEN
CONFLICTS’

European Union Foreign Ministers meet in Luxembourg on April 15-16
for an informal Council dominated by the question of how to bring
stability to the troubled Caucasus region. At their ‘Gymnich’, the
Ministers will discuss the so-called ‘frozen conflicts’ in Chechnya
(Russia), Abkhazia (Georgia) and Nagorny Karabakh
(Armenia-Azerbaijan) that have simmered for years without any
apparent resolution. And they will talk about possible measure to
promote openness and democracy in Belarus. A separate discussion will
concern the EU’s relationship with China, although this covers the
broad strategic issues and will not address the arms ban. The
Ministers will also debate their Mediterranean and Middle East
policies, and see whether the strategic partnership agreed at the
June EU summit should be updated.

‘Frozen conflicts’.

The ‘frozen conflicts’ in the Caucasus region have never generated
much political attention, yet they have been vicious, bloody and
lengthy. The EU’s Luxembourg Presidency is expected to say that the
EU cannot afford to neglect the region: Georgia, Armenia and
Azerbaijan form a strategic corridor linking southern Europe with
central Asia.

The region has faced civil wars, closed borders and a serious refugee
burden which, combined with the breakdown of the Soviet-era economy,
led to economic catastrophe in 1994. Many borders are still closed
and the refugees are still waiting to return. But there are also
ample opportunities: there is perhaps as much oil under the Caspian
Sea as under the North Sea and a huge amount of gas there and in
Central Asia. The Caucasian corridor is the fastest way from southern
Europe to central Asia and beyond; peace would help realise the
potential for transporting goods and energy from the Caspian region
and central Asia.

The EU is involved in helping all three governments to develop their
economies and promote regional co-operation. It has spent about euro
1 billion in grants to the area over past decade and Tacis, its
technical assistance programme, has helped to make the
Europe-Caucasus-central Asia transport corridor, Traceca, a reality
and enable the Caucasians to manage oil and gas transport.

All these issues – the conflicts, the relationships with Russia,
treatment of minorities, the economic problems, the decisions on
pipeline routes – are closely interlinked. The Luxembourg Presidency
is expected to say that the way to strengthen the three states is for
their governments to enhance their own credibility and determination
to promote their national development by means of regional
co-operation. Solutions cannot come from outside, no matter how well
intentioned they may be. The Ministers will be urged to raise the
issue with other countries with an interest, above all those in the
region itself – Turkey, Iran and, especially, Russia – and with the
US and the international organisations responsible for conflict
resolution.

—

The Abkhazia conflict concerns the formally autonomous republic
within Georgia which is de facto independent, although not recognised
as such internationally. The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh concerns an
Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan: local Armenian separatists
declared independence in 1991 but the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR)
is not recognized by any country in the world. The Chechen Republic,
also known as Chechnya is part of the Russian Federation: during the
collapse of the Soviet Union, a group of Chechen leaders declared
themselves to be the lawful government, announced a new parliament,
but their independence is not recognized by any relevant state. Since
1994 over 200,000 insurgents and civilians have been killed in
Chechnya.

—

In a linked discussion, the Ministers will look at how to promote
democracy in Belarus. The debate is timely: after the bloodless
revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, attention has turned
to Belarus and its authoritarian slant. In March, the European
Commission said it was preparing to increase its assistance to
Belarus from around euro 10 million annually to some euro 12 million
each year in 2005 and 2006. But there are broader issues to be
debated, like how to promote human rights and the rule of law. Since
1997, the EU has restricted ministerial contact with Belarus and
suspended aid apart from assistance for projects which support
humanitarian causes or democratisation. Last November, the EU
introduced a visa ban against officials held directly responsible for
what were deemed a fraudulent election and referendum, and those
responsible for the subsequent repression of demonstrators.

Mediterranean and Middle East.

The Ministers will discuss the progress in their relations with the
Middle East and the Mediterranean since they adopted their Strategic
Partnership at their Brussels summit last June. The EU’s Strategic
Partnership with the Mediterranean and Middle East involves It
provides a policy framework for these two regions with a view to
promoting political, economic and social reform, generated from
within the affected societies, as well as contributing to their
socio-economic development.

The aim of the initiative is to boost cooperation to promote peace,
prosperity and progress in the region. However, the Ministers will
discuss how they can do more to encourage reform in the region, and
promote modernization. The region has long endured a poor record for
democracy, civil society, and human rights (see Europe Information
2951), and the Ministers will examine how progress can best be
supported. They will also look at related areas like security and
migration. And they will prepare for the next EuroMed meeting, and
the tenth anniversary of the 1995 Barcelona summit between the EU and
key Mediterranean nations.

China.

The talks on China will look at how best to develop the relationship
with a growing political and economic power. China’s economic growth
over the past two decades has appeared relentless, but Beijing is now
showing an increasing political muscle, engaging in the nuclear talks
with North Korea and raising the temperature in its relations with
Taiwan. Although the Ministers will not look at the current political
hot potato of whether to lift the Chinese arms ban, they will examine
the political climate in the country, including human rights.

OSCE.

Candidate countries Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Turkey will join
the discussion on the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in
Europe (OSCE).

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