The New Anatolian, Turkey
April 14 2005

Turkey and the EU a Lose-lose Situation?

The possible decline of the government and political instability in
Turkey will be major themes in the coming days. The attacks against
the Justice and Development (AK) Party government from within as well
as without have already started. It’s not a positive development but
an expected one. Many critics of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan’s government agree that their “mental army” can’t cope with
Turkey’s foreign policy challenges. Indeed, if everyone talks in the
same way about the inadequacy of government policies there must be
something behind it.

Turkey’s European Union membership negotiations are expected to begin
in October, but this increasingl y seems to be unlikely. There are
still many political issues which Turkey cannot and will not agree
with the EU before October. Last weekend, at a conference organized
by the Turkish Union of Chambers and Commodities Exchanges (TOBB) in
Ankara on the negotiation experiences of several EU members and
near-members, it became clear that Turkey is not going do appoint a
chief negotiator as newly joined Poland and Hungary have, but was
approaching the negotiations in a similar manner to Romania. Turkish
representatives of the government were not giving any clear position
and maintaining that the prime minister is intending to be the chief
negotiator. This may be true in a political sense, but who is going
to lead the technical talks?

It seems that the government is also not happy about the EU’s policy
towards Turkey. Even the suggestion of a possible Ocalan retrial
created a strong nationalistic climate in Turkey. If opposition
Republican People’s Party leader Deniz Baykal’s claims that the
decision to retry has indeed been made are true, then Turkey is
headed towards more turbulent times in the future. The so-called
Armenian genocide issue, which has become a hot topic in the French
and German parliaments, is another problem that will surely test
Turkey’s limits of tolerance.

But now the most important issue has become the reborn PKK issue.
Erdogan’s visit to Norway was expected to be problematic, but who
would have expected an egg-throwing PKK militants? Actually, although
it is certainly nothing new that a Turkish prime minister is attacked
in this way, it was the first time that Erdogan has been. During
Nevruz celebrations, the Norweigian ambassador to Turkey was
“visiting” Diyarbakir and was criticized by the press. Norway and
other northern European states are places where the terrorist PKK is
perfectly organized. From this point of view, there is nothing new in
the West!

Erdogan’s visits to any EU country will from now on be ridden with
such demonstrations, and especially if he insists on holding public
debates or press conferences. Of course, it’s not only Erdogan who is
insulted by these demonstrations, but the entire Turkish nation. This
is why he is going to follow also a nationalistic policy. Yes, there
are great debates amongst European political circles about whether
the negotiations with Turkey should be postponed. The good will of
the Turkish government and the Turkish people are not being met
fairly. A solution for Cyprus is being put on the back burners
because there can be no solution until October anyway. The more the
EU insists on quick solutions to these issues, the more it will be
considered as unseemly political pressure. Indeed, all signs show
that neither the EU nor Turkey’s government will be successful in
starting the negotiations smoothly.

The anti-EU forces in Turkey are on the rise, and the EU is not doing
enough, other than simply criticizing Turkey’s political responses to
the Women’s Day incidents last month and more recently in Trabzon and
Samsun. These type of “innocent democratic expressions” will turn
into a significant political instability virus that is certain to
attack Turkey’s nervous system. Though Turkey has ample political
experience from the last 25 years, the upcoming negotiations will
involve technical issues and instruments that are entirely different.
Before it was the Soviet Union, now the EU. There has been a shift in
the power bloc, but the country remains the same: Turkey.

We need common sense to prevail now more then ever. Turks succumb
very easily to provocation. Board of Higher Education (YOK) Chairman
Erdogan Tezic said, after the recent Trabzon incidents, that he fears
that such polarization will spread to the universities.

For some EU countries, Turkey is socially and politically unstable
and doesn’t deserve to join the EU. Why then is the EU insisting on
the negotiation start date? The EU is losing its attractiveness to
Turkish society very rapidly and this tendency will only get
stronger. Who is losing to whom doesn’t matter at this point. The
decision to go ahead with negotiations last December was considered a
win-win situation, but now policies on both sides suggest we are
heading for a lose-lose situation.

By Prof. Huseyin Bagci
The New Anatolian