The Messenger, Georgia
April 15 2005

Armenia and China: targets of velvet revolutions

Russian newspaper GazetaSNG reports that on the eve of the ninetieth
anniversary of the Armenian genocide at the hands of the Ottoman
Empire, Turkish analysts and mass media unanimously forecast the
“Orange Transformation” of Armenia.
The paper writes that this looks like to be a response to the effort
by Yerevan to force Ankara to recognize the genocide and take
responsibility for it. According to an expert of the organization
Eurasian Strategic Researches (Ankara) Sinan Ogan, the revolution in
the Kyrgyzstan will not be the last in CIS countries.
He forecasts that in the next 10 years the target of the United
States will be not Russia, but China. According to him, they want to
spread their influence to China, because Americans need a base and
“Kyrgyzstan will play this role.”
He also thinks that the second target of the United States will
become Armenia, because the policy in Yerevan does not coincide with
Washington’s policy in the Caucasus. “Armenia will remain
pro-Russian, will fight with Turkey and impede the construction of
the Georgian part of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline,” he said. The
paper writes that the socioeconomic situation in the territories of
Armenia bordering Turkey and Georgia is rather deplorable.
“In addition, possible Russian interference should also be taken into
consideration,” the paper writes, adding that such forecasts can
entirely impede the construction of Iranian-Armenian gas pipeline and
aggravate relations between these two countries. “However, the export
of such events is inevitable for Nagorno-Karabakh,” GazetaSNG
reports, adding that there is impression that the next targets for
revolution have become these two countries – potential strategic
partners of Russia.