EurasiaNet Organization
April 18 2005

INTERNATIONAL MEDIATORS SEE NEW OPPORTUNITY FOR KARABAKH SETTLEMENT
Emil Danielyan 4/18/05

French, Russian and US diplomats, acting under the aegis of the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Minsk Group,
are guardedly optimistic about the latest push to resolve the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Their optimism is reinforced by the
Armenian government’s apparent efforts in recent weeks to prepare
public opinion for major concessions to Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov and his Armenian
counterpart Vardan Oskanian held “proximity talks” with Minsk Group
officials in London on April 15. The discussions sought to finalize
details of a summit meeting between the Azerbaijani and Armenian
presidents sometime in May. International mediators believe those talks
could prove crucial in breaking the existing stalemate in the Karabakh
peace process. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In a rare joint statement timed to coincide with London talks, the
mediators declared that the protracted peace process has entered a
“sensitive juncture, where a first step towards an agreement mediated
by the [Minsk Group] Co-Chairs could be at hand in the framework of
the discussions between the parties.” At the same time, the Minsk
Group co-chairs expressed concern about increased ceasefire violations
along the Armenian-Azerbaijani frontline east of Karabakh, warning
that renewed fighting would be “disastrous” for both South Caucasus
neighbors. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Participants have remained tight-lipped, declining to speak about the
substance of the discussions. The Armenian Foreign Ministry said only
that they focused on preparations for the meeting between Presidents
Robert Kocharian of Armenia and Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan. It
is expected to take place in mid-May. Mammadyarov told Radio Free
Europe-Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) that the talks were “productive,” adding
that more discussions were needed “to bring the positions of the two
countries closer together.” Armenian and Azerbaijani diplomats are
expected to hold another round of discussions in Frankfurt on April 27.

Yuri Merzlyakov, the Russian co-chair of the Minsk Group, said earlier
that the two foreign ministers would be presented with new peace
proposals drawn up by the mediating troika. He indicated that Aliyev
and Kocharian should personally discuss and pass judgment on those
proposals. “The co-chairs believe that there needs to be a political
decision at the highest level,” Merzlyakov told RFE/RL.

This might explain why the Minsk Group statement urged the
conflicting parties to “prepare their populations for a balanced
negotiated agreement that will require compromise on both sides.”
Official Yerevan appears to be doing just that, with Defense Minister
Serge Sarkisian, Kocharian’s most powerful lieutenant, taking center
stage in the effort.

“The conflict’s resolution will indeed be painful for both the Armenian
and Azerbaijani peoples because mutual compromise means giving up
some of what you have,” he told parliamentary hearings on Karabakh
on March 30. Speaking to journalists a few days later, Sarkisian,
who commanded Karabakh Armenian forces during their victorious war
with Azerbaijan, derided hard-line nationalist groups opposed to any
compromise with Azerbaijan. “Do we want another war?” he asked. “Did
we lose few of our boys, our comrades [during the first war]?”

Kocharian likewise publicly stated on April 13 that Armenian
concessions on Karabakh are “inevitable.” One of those concessions is
his administration’s obvious retreat from its demands for a so-called
“package” peace accord that would settle all contentious issues at
once. During the Karabakh conflict’s “hot” phase – from 1992-94 –
Armenian forces occupied broad swaths of Azerbaijani territory that
surround the enclave. Yerevan, along with Karabakh Armenian leaders,
have for years insisted that the return of the Armenian-occupied land
is impossible without a determination of Karabakh’s status — the main
bone of contention. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Azerbaijan, meanwhile, wants a step-by-step solution to the territorial
dispute, in which a determination on Karabakh’s status would be
indefinitely postponed until after the return of occupied Azerbaijani
lands, the restoration of economic ties between Armenia and Azerbaijan,
as well as other confidence-building measures.

Armenian leaders indicate that they are now ready to accept
the step-by-step formula so long as they get other international
guarantees of continued Armenian control over Karabakh. Sarkisian
noted in his parliamentary testimony that this could include a
formal pledge by the international community to hold a referendum
of independence in Karabakh. It also could include an international
guarantee that Azerbaijan would refrain from undertaking offensive
military operations.

Speaking in Yerevan on April 6, Russia’s former chief Karabakh
negotiator and a staunch advocate of the gradual settlement, Vladimir
Kazimirov, said: “Whereas in the past the Armenians were saying,
‘Package, package and nothing other than package,’ it looks as though
they are now considering a phased options as well.”

The new peace proposals are thus widely thought to be based on the
phased strategy of conflict resolution which was embraced by Armenia’s
former president, Levon Ter-Petrosian. He was forced to resign in
February 1998 after publicly advocating a step-by-step Minsk Group
plan rejected by key members of his government, including then Prime
Minister Kocharian.

Ter-Petrosian allies now say time has proved the ex-president right.
“They (the current Armenian leadership) have already abandoned their
‘victorious’ policies and … reverted to our concept of conflict
resolution without shying away from repeating our arguments,” one of
them, former parliament speaker Babken Ararktsian, told the Yerevan
daily “Haykakan Zhamanak” on April 12.

Negotiators have come close to striking a deal on Karabakh on several
past occasions, most recently during the Key West peace conference
in April 2001. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. But
last-minute disagreements and other snags always scuttled the signing
of a formal treaty. Observers therefore caution that, despite the
building optimism, the discussions could collapse yet again.

Oskanian, the Armenian Foreign Minister, guarded against excessive
expectations from the latest push for Karabakh peace as he met
reporters ahead of the London talks. The conflicting parties, he said,
have reached general understandings about the course of the peace
process. “But when we go into details, we see that our positions are
still very far apart,” he said.

Editor’s Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and
political analyst.