Russia boosting presence in Caucasus to counter US influence – Azeri expert
Ayna, Baku
19 Apr 05
Text of C. Sumarinli report by Azerbaijani newspaper Ayna on 19
April headlined “Russia is setting up two more military bases against
Azerbaijan” and subheaded “Baku’s agreement to US military bases has
prompted Moscow to intensify its political activities”
Russia intends to set up two new military bases in Armenia by the end
of 2007, Ayna newspaper has learnt from Russian military sources. One
of the bases is to be located in Noyemberyan District and the other
on the southern shore of the Goyca [Sevan] Lake.
Russian Defence Minister Sergey Ivanov is set to visit Armenia in
June to tackle some of the issues (financial, technical and so on)
brought about by the deployment of the bases, the sources said.
A special delegation from Russia will visit Armenia in the next
few days to inspect the areas where the bases will be stationed,
the Russian sources said.
Experts reckon that Moscow’s intention is to counter US hegemony in
the South Caucasus, ensure that Armenia becomes an “eternal outpost” of
Russia and prevent any possibility of a “velvet revolution” in Armenia.
It is very likely that the military bases withdrawn from Georgia
will be located in Armenia, Col (retd) Ildirim Mammadov said in an
interview with Ayna. “Russia will soon move its military bases from
Georgia to Armenia. In return for this “favour”, Moscow may secure an
“arms corridor” through Georgia [to Armenia],” Mammadov said.
Experts reckon that the choice of Noyemberyan District and the southern
part of the Goyca Lake for the military bases is no coincidence. “For
example, it is possible to control Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia and
the eastern provinces of Turkey from Noyemberyan,” Mammadov said. He
added that the bases may be built soon.
This vile intention of Russia may create a serious obstacle for
resolving the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict, the colonel said. “Against
the background of Western support for Azerbaijan, Russia would not
like to see Armenia – its strategic ally – defeated. At best, this
may result in the protracted settlement of the Karabakh conflict, and
in the worst case scenario, this may lead to Karabakh’s alienation
from Azerbaijan,” Mammadov said. He fears that if Russia’s presence
in Armenia grows stronger, this may result in a change – unfavourable
for Azerbaijan – in the arms arsenal of the Karabakh separatists.
Against the background of these realities, Azerbaijan has to make a
definite strategic choice, Mammadov said. “Baku must openly say whom
it chooses and what it wants. Only in this case, can we change the
direction of processes to our advantage,” he said.
Experts believe that Russia’s plans concerning Armenia must be regarded
as a fear that NATO military bases may be deployed in Georgia and
Azerbaijan. To recap, the Baku government – at the level of foreign
ministers – no longer rules out the deployment of American military
bases in Azerbaijan.
In this context, the anxiety of Russia’s Caspian Sea Fleet commander
Vice-Adm Yuriy Startsev, who will leave Baku today, is easy to
understand. “I am against the military presence of countries from
outside the region in the Caspian. Countries should deal with their
own problems themselves,” Startsev said while commenting on the US
plans regarding the “Caspian guard”. Implementing such a programme
in the Caspian may shift the balance of forces, he said.
It seems that Azerbaijan is turning into a battlefield of a serious
strategic competition between superpowers. What will be the ultimate
result of the “conflict” depends on the political steps taken by the
Baku government.