Embattled Belarus leader visits ally Russia

By Oleg Shchedrov

MOSCOW, April 22 (Reuters) – The embattled president of Belarus on
Friday took a respite from Western calls for change in his ex-Soviet
republic to discuss plans for a joint state with his only ally,
Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Alexander Lukashenko flew to Moscow a day after European Union foreign
policy chief Javier Solana joined U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice in criticising his tough rule and telling him it was time he
went.

“I have no opinion about Rice or about her statements,” Lukashenko
said on arrival in Moscow. “At least she now knows where Belarus is.”

Rice described Belarus — which lies to the west of Russia and has
borders with three new EU members — as “the last true dictatorship in
the centre of Europe.” In comments on Thursday, Solana echoed: “There
is no doubt the time has come for change.”

Lukashenko, who has ruled the Slavic country of 5 million people since
1994, has rooted out the legal opposition and sent to jail some of its
prominent figures.

A pariah for the West, Belarus is a key ally for Russia.

Although the efforts of both leaders in the late 1990s to form a
common state have stumbled on disagreement over administrative and
financial issues, the plan has not been formally dropped and the
leaders regularly meet to discuss cooperation.

“You are welcome here,” Putin told Lukashenko at the start of
one-to-one Kremlin talks before a meeting on cooperation.

WAVE OF POLITICAL CHANGE

Lukashenko’s importance for Moscow grew after a wave of political
changes in ex-Soviet states left Belarus and Armenia Russia’s only
European allies.

Ukraine and Georgia have installed pro-Western governments in peaceful
“velvet revolutions.” Moldova, run by Communist president, has
proclaimed a similar change of orientation.

The United States and European Union have made clear Belarus could be
next in line for change.

Earlier this month Putin and Lukashenko met on the Black Sea coast and
Russian media said they discussed ways of resisting the spread of
“velvet revolutions” to other ex-Soviet states.

Analysts say the big question for Lukashenko is how strong Putin will
defend him if protests erupt in Belarus.

Putin, annoyed by what he sees as Western interference in Russia’s
zone of interests, discussed the situation in the former Soviet
republics with Rice on Wednesday during her visit to Moscow. But there
has been no indication what the outcome of their talks was.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a NATO meeting in the
Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, on Thursday that Russia was opposed to
any foreign support for “velvet revolutions.”

“I think the democratic process and the process of reform cannot be
imposed from outside,” he said.

However, Russia’s reluctance to put at risk relations with the West by
defending its clients in Ukraine during its “orange revolution” last
year, could be an alarming sign for Lukashenko.

Andrei Cherkizov, a commentator for Ekho Moskvy radio, said Putin
would make a decision driven by his own interests.

“A survival instinct will be the only factor which will decide Putin’s
behaviour,” he said.

04/23/05 03:00 ET