Azeri paper analyses scenarios of US military presence in region

Ayna, Baku
22 Apr 05

The Azerbaijani newspaper Ayna has said that the USA is planning to
secure its military presence in the South Caucasus and the Caspian
region by 2015. Analysing possible scenarios of the US presence in the
region, the paper said that the Pentagon regards Azerbaijan as a
starting point in the region and plans to complete the process of
establishing total control over the South Caucasus and Caspian Sea in
the next 10 years. Touching on the impact of this plan on the
settlement of the Karabakh problem, Ayna stressed that Washington will
either postpone the resumption of hostilities in Nagornyy Karabakh for
an indefinite period “in order to make people agree to the defeat” or
divide spheres of influence in the region with Russia on condition
that Moscow prioritizes Azerbaijan’s interests in the Karabakh
conflict settlement. The following is the text of C. Sumarinli report
by Azerbaijani newspaper Ayna on 22 April headlined “Azerbaijan is on
the Pentagon’s operations map” and “It will be known in 2015 which of
the US scenarios concerning the South Caucasus and the Caspian region
will succeed”. Subheadings as published:

The USA has set 2015 as the deadline for securing its military
presence in Azerbaijan, NATO sources have told Ayna. This is the
deadline for the integration of all the South Caucasus countries into
NATO.

According to the concept supported by NATO and the USA, all work on
the integration of the South Caucasus into Euro-Atlantic standards
must be completed by 2015. In this regard, specific provisions have
been made in the Individual Partnership Action Plan [IPAP], which is
expected to be approved by NATO, Georgia and Azerbaijan. Armenia is
also planning to submit the same document to the NATO leadership
soon. Under the plan, the NATO leadership considers it necessary to
conduct reforms in the state administration and defence spheres of its
partner states.

US operations map

There is no doubt that the main objective of military reforms in the
South Caucasus is to get the region, which is rich in natural
resources, away from Russia’s influence and implement certain future
plans with regard to Iran.

Washington’s operations plan concerning Azerbaijan is specific and the
map of our country’s military infrastructure is already in the
Pentagon. Military sources say that measures are being taken in some
military installations of Azerbaijan to prepare for a visit by NATO
officers.

The foreign press says that several military bases will be set up in
Azerbaijan by 2007 “in order to ensure security in the Caspian
region”. It must be remembered that by 2007, it is planned to bring
the Azerbaijani army in line with the standards of the alliance within
the framework of NATO’s IPAP plan. The Pentagon is demanding that
reforms in Azerbaijan’s defence sphere be completed by the end of
2007, experts believe.

A stage-by-stage action plan has already been launched to bring the
military in line with NATO standards. The Defence Ministry is
currently discussing training courses that will bring Azerbaijani
officers and soldiers in line with NATO standards under the guidance
of US and Turkish officers.

Experts think that the Pentagon’s main attention is currently focused
on air fields in the villages of Qala, Kurdamir, Cuxanli, Alat and
Haci Zeynalabdin Tagiyev, because Washington wants to set up its
military bases in these areas. It is clear why Washington wants to
keep precisely eastern Azerbaijan under control. In doing so, the USA
is trying to prove indirectly that they are not going to influence the
Nagornyy Karabakh conflict in any way or confront the Russian military
in Armenia, experts believe.

Second, it can be seen from the Pentagon’s steps that the USA aims to
take control of the energy-rich Caspian and neutralize Iran with the
help of its military presence in Azerbaijan.

The Pentagon’s “Caspian Plan” regards Azerbaijan as a starting point
in the region. Taking account of the fact that Kazakhstan will join
the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and Turkmen President Saparmyrat
Nyyazow will not stand for the presidency in 2009, the process of
establishing total control over the Caspian should be completed by
2015. Of course, it is necessary to neutralize the two allies – Russia
and Iran – in order to achieve success in this issue.

Some sources say that if the USA does not manage to implement its
plans against Iran in one or two years, they will be implemented
between 2010 and 2015.

Azerbaijan in 2015

Experts think that if we take into consideration the current situation
in the South Caucasus and the Caspian Sea, there may be three
scenarios of future developments for the USA.

1. Complete victory – This will depend on the success of the
Pentagon’s military and political moves. If all these moves are
successful, the US presence in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan and
Turkmenistan will become a reality. In this case, the Russian military
bases will be pulled out of Georgia, and Azerbaijan will not extend
its contract with Russia on the Qabala radar station, which expires in
2012. The process of installing purely pro-American political and
military leaders in the aforesaid countries, as well as in Armenia, is
continuing.

As a result of the successful development of events, the Iranian
government will be overthrown either through a “velvet revolution” or
a short-term military invasion. In order to implement all this, it is
important to keep Russia in its traditional position of an onlooker.

2. Minimum victory – It is “better than nothing” for Washington. Under
this scenario, the deployment of US military bases in Azerbaijan and
Georgia, the ensuring of Kazakhstan’s pro-Western policy and
Turkmenistan’s neutrality towards Russia might be the factors that
will secure the minimum victory. There is no way the USA can solve the
problem of Iran under this scenario because the countries of the
region, especially Russia, are still against any invasion of Iran.

3. Defeat – According to this scenario, the contract on the Qabala
radar station is extended for another 10 years although the USA sets
up military bases in Azerbaijan before 2015. The plans concerning
Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran remain unsolved. At the same time,
Russia keeps its bases in Georgia.

Under this scenario, it seems likely that Russia will create a
military alliance with these countries in the Caspian. Russia has
already started acting to this end. The USA and Russia may reach
agreement on dividing areas of influence at the end of the forthcoming
decade if the developments in the South Caucasus and the Caspian
region unfold under this scenario. This shows that there will be
certain changes in the US plans concerning the region. The USA will
either put off these plans for another 15 years (until 2030) or
confine itself to “the areas” it has acquired against the background
of Russia’s strengthening.

Azerbaijan’s benefit

The deployment of US bases in Azerbaijan is inevitable under all three
scenarios designed for the period until 2015. As we can see, compared
to the other four Caspian nations, the Pentagon can implement its
military plans concerning Azerbaijan. However, under the aforesaid
scenarios, Russia will retain its presence in Armenia until 2015 and
it will inevitably increase.

So, how will Azerbaijan benefit if 20 per cent of its territory are
under occupation? Experts think that events may develop in two
directions here.

1. The Pentagon will not interfere in the issue of Azerbaijan’s
occupied territories and postpone the possible resumption of
hostilities in the region for an indefinite period. In return, various
projects will be implemented to improve the social welfare of
Azerbaijani society. The priority purpose here is to “make people
agree to the defeat”.

2. The second scenario proceeds from the crux of the negotiations on
dividing the South Caucasus between the USA and Russia. Washington
agrees to Armenia’s role as Russia’s “outpost” in the South Caucasus,
while Moscow guarantees that Azerbaijan’s interests will be
prioritized in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict.

Experts think that the second scenario is less likely because Moscow’s
support for the return of Karabakh and other territories to Azerbaijan
can sharply weaken Russia’s positions in Armenia.

In general, we should wait for at least 10 years to find out what the
fate of the South Caucasus and the Caspian region will be like.