Analyst predicts “soft revolution” for Azerbaijan – Armenian agency

Arminfo
29 Apr 05

Yerevan, 29 April: A “soft revolution” is possible in Azerbaijan. This
is the opinion of Arif Yunusov, head of the conflict studies and
migration department at the Institute of Peace and Democracy, who
spoke at the international conference “The Caucasus 2004” which is
under way in Yerevan.

Briefly describing the situation in Azerbaijan in the wake of
[Azerbaijani President] Ilham Aliyev’s coming to power, the political
analyst said that as opposed to [his father and the late Azerbaijani
President] Heydar Aliyev – a strong personality and “father of the
nation” – Ilham Aliyev has turned out to be a weak politician. What is
more, he has failed to fit in his father’s team. For instance,
whereas under Heydar Aliyev there were only two clans, people hailing
from Naxcivan and those hailing from Armenia, a trend towards
oligarchy has started under Ilham Aliyev.

As an example of the weakness of the incumbent president, Yunusov
cited that under Heydar Aliyev “no minister dared to say ‘I reckon’,
but only said ‘we reckon'”. Thus, the trend towards oligarchy has
brought about many mini-presidents in Azerbaijan, Yunusov
said. Another proof of the weakness of Ilham Aliyev’s policy is an
unsuccessful attempt at dismissing Health Minister Ali Insanov. This
[weakness] has effectively resulted in a duopoly: the president is in
charge of foreign relations, while Ramiz Mehdiyev, head of the
presidential administration, decides on domestic issues. Hence, Ilham
Aliyev has been given the role of the British Queen.

A distinctive feature of the recent period has been the opportunity
given to oligarchs to invest the accumulated funds in Azerbaijan,
Yunusov said. Whereas Azerbaijan previously registered net capital
outflow, the situation has reversed now. In the political analyst’s
view, the gulf between the political system and economy can result in
a clash.

Speaking about regional processes and their impact on the situation in
Azerbaijan, Yunusov said that the war in Iraq has already affected
Azerbaijan and a possible war in Iran may have unpredictable
consequences for Baku. At the same time, there are some circles in
Azerbaijan which advocate a military operation in Iran, Yunusov said.

Describing the situation and noting Azerbaijan’s role as a
springboard, the political analyst recalled the modernization of seven
airports and the “American servicemen who have turned up in
Azerbaijan”. In this connection, Yunusov said that Tehran has made
unprecedented concessions by allowing to open an Azerbaijani consulate
in Tabriz [capital of Iran’s East Azarbayjan Province], making
concessions on the status of the Caspian Sea and “condemning Armenia’s
aggression”.

In exchange, Azerbaijan pledged not to station foreign troops on its
territory. However, to skirt round this obstacle, Azerbaijan dubs them
“mobile units”. The political analyst links the recent visit by US
Defence Secretary [Donald Rumsfeld] to Azerbaijan to an attempt to
agree on specific deadlines for stationing mobile units.

In the opinion of Yunusov, the domestic political situation in
Azerbaijan is, by and large, quite tense and unpredictable in terms of
infighting within the Azerbaijani leadership, lack of strong will, an
economic boom and external factors. Arif Yunusov offered a scenario
whereby a “soft revolution” keeps Ilham Aliyev in office and he goes
on playing the role of the British Queen. However, the “guard” of
Heydar Aliyev resigns and a big group of pro-Western MPs ends up in
parliament.