Ukraine Mulls ‘Russia Bypass’ Pipeline to Carry Additional Turkmen Gas
Supplies

Global Insight Daily Analysis
28 April 2005

By Andrew Neff

Ukraine is raising the prospect of constructing a gas pipeline from
Turkmenistan that would supply Ukraine and European markets but avoid
Russia, according to Alexei Ivchenko, chief executive officer (CEO) of
Naftogaz Ukrainy, the state oil and gas holding company. Ukraine is
seeking to form an international gas transportation consortium to
bring Central Asian and Russian gas to Ukraine and on to European
markets, pushing a proposal that would include Turkmenistan,
Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine (see CIS Regional: 31 March 2005:
Ukraine Pushes Gazprom for ‘Normal’ Gas Sector Relationship and CIS
Regional: 4 April 2005: Ukraine Seeks Increase of In-Kind Payment for
Turkmen Gas Supplies).

Ivchenko said that if Russia does not participate in the consortium
and refuses to allow Turkmenistan to boost its exports via the Russian
pipeline system, then Ukraine – which is heavily dependent on Turkmen
gas imports – would consider building a ‘Russia bypass’ pipeline to
ensure its energy security.

Significance: Geography would seem to make it quite difficult for a
potential gas pipeline linking Turkmenistan to Ukraine without
crossing Russian territory. Ivchenko said that such a pipeline could
be routed via the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, then to Georgia and via
the Black Sea to Ukraine, although this would require a rapprochement
between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, which are at odds over their
maritime border. An alternative route could be directed from
Turkmenistan via Iran and Turkey and the Black Sea to Ukraine, but
this also seems highly unlikely, given that Iran wants to be a gas
exporter (rather than merely a transit state) to Ukraine and Europe in
its own right.