The Turkish Gambit

Hayots Ashkharh, Yerevan
29 Apr 05

by Sarkis Gevorkyan

The delicate game of chess that has started between the Turkish and
Armenian leadership is still continuing with both sides exchanging
letters which indicates serious changes that might happen in
Armenian-Turkish relations.

US President George Bush’s message of 24 April and Council of Europe
Secretary General Terry Davis’s statement also proves that. They
proved the predictions about an inevitable change in Turkey’s
political behaviour. Turkey’s externally strange and illogical step to
publish Talat Pasa’s “Black Notebook” should also be seen within the
same context of developments. In fact, this is a demonstration of
“readiness” to discuss history freely and a kind of bait to kick-start
this process at the bilateral level.

The reason is evident: Turkey needs to get rid of the brand of a
country that carried out genocide by shedding crocodile tears about a
common Armenian-Turkish “tragedy” and to create a veneer of
repentance. And this should be done as soon as possible, i.e. by
October 2005 when the European Union and Turkey will start
negotiations where a demand for the recognition of the Armenian
genocide will be put forward.

Turkey wants to act on the basis of the formula “first history, then
policy” because it needs only two things: to avoid being branded as a
country that carried out the genocide and de jure confirm its control
over the territories it occupied in 1921 with the help of the
Lenin-Ataturk deal. It is obvious that at present, Turkey is ready to
make compromises on all the other problems, even on the Karabakh
issue, except for these two. But there is a strong rule in diplomacy:
first take, then give. For this reason, Turkey made an attack by means
of Prime Minister Erdogan’s letter and Armenia, through President
Robert Kocharyan’s reply, adopted the role of a player who defends
himself with the help of a certain counterattack.

Such chess-like moves showed that the Turkish gambit is entering its
critical phase when every step may be fateful for the parties.

How will the events develop? We think that after Kocharyan’s reply,
the Turkish party will make a fuss throughout the world about its
readiness to discuss the “painful pages” of history, but Armenia is
trying to re-direct the pressure that a third party is putting on
Turkey, in the belief that bilateral relations will allegedly improve
as a result of this. This means that the problem of the genocide
hinders improvements in these relations and Armenia has territorial
claims to Turkey.

In order to predict Turkey’s next steps, Armenia itself should take
certain progressive steps that would stem from the spirit and contents
of President Kocharyan’s letter to Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan.
They may include:

A) An official offer to establish diplomatic relations between the two
countries;

B) An invitation to an Armenian-Turkish business forum in Yerevan;

C) A suggestion that all the disputable problems be put on the agenda
of an Armenian-Turkish high level meeting

D) To raise the problem of Armenia’s blockade more actively and
consistently.

It is obvious that Turkey is in a peculiar situation and launches
attacks by looking at the schedule all the time. Along with defending
itself, Armenia should also use its opportunities for counterattack by
October and try to neutralize Turkey’s attempts at promoting itself as
a constructive party in assessing history by putting forward positive
initiatives directed at improving relations.