Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
May 4, 2005, Wednesday

A NEW LANDMARK IN THE KARABAKH PROBLEM?

SOURCE: Voyenno-Promyshlenny Kuryer, No. 15, April 27 – May 10, 2005,
p. 3

by Samvel Martirosyan

THE KARABAKH CONFLICT: ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN ARE FORCED TO REACH A
COMPROMISE

Karabakh has become the most topical issue in the relations between
Armenia and Azerbaijan. Despite the fact that negotiations do not
bring fruit, indirect signs show that the conflicting sides are under
strong pressure from the intermediaries. Yury Merzlyakov, Russian
co-chairman of the Minsk OSCE group for the Karabakh conflict,
recently stated that the conflicting sides will soon receive a range
of solutions. Yerevan and Baku will have to prepare public opinion
for possible concessions.

Armenia’s prospective concessions were officially announced in
Yerevan. Serj Sargsyan, Secretary of the Security Council and Defense
Minister, outlined three points where Armenia could make concessions
during the open hearing in the parliament.

Serrj Sargsyan stated, “We consider it as a principal compromise that
the Republic of Armenia will not acknowledge the Republic of Nagorny
Karabakh despite the fact that this republic was established
legitimately, and has been showing its good will in the process of
peaceful settling of the conflict within the framework of the Minsk
group as an independent democratic state.” In addition, he stated
that Armenia is prepared to agree with the proposal announced by the
head of the NATO parliamentary assembly a few months ago. The matter
concerns another referendum regarding the destiny of the Republic of
Nagorny Karabakh. Returning territories located in so-called security
zones (seven districts of the Republic of Azerbaijan controlled by
Nagorny Karabakh) could become the third concession. Serj Sargsyan
said, “We are prepared to make mutual concessions on condition that
Azerbaijan receives security guarantees for the population of Nagorny
Karabakh from international organizations. Armenia is prepared to
discuss the possibility of mutual compromises within the framework of
these pragmatic limits.” He announced three fundamental principles,
which Armenia supports. He said, “Karabakh must not be subordinated
to Azerbaijan; Nagorny Karabakh must not turn into an enclave; the
republic must have a ground border with Armenia and international
guarantees that it will be able to participate in progressive
processes in the world.”

In the meantime, Yerevan is strengthening its defenses against the
background of statements about concessions. In particular, the
republic has increase military expenditure. Voenno-Promyshlenny
Kuryer already stated that Azerbaijan and Armenia have increased
their military budgets this year. At the same time, Baku’s military
expenditure is 150% higher than Yerevan’s defense budget. At the same
time, Serj Sargsyan recently stated that Armenia will increase
military spending this year despite the fact that the budget was
passed. The defense minister said, “We will not fall behind
Azerbaijan. It’s another question where we will find this money.” It
should be noted that Armenia plans to spend around $100 million on
defense (Azerbaijan – $240 million). Armenian servicemen’s money
allowances recently increased by 30,000 drams (over $70).

The defense minister stated that he reached an agreement with Prime
Minister Andranik Markaryan to increase servicemen’s wages monthly.

Serj Sargsyan stated that our Armed Forces are better that the armies
of our neighbors. He stated that the republic currently relies on
modernization of weapons. He said, “300 new tanks will cost $1
billion; modernization of our weapons is much cheaper.” It should be
noted that this statement testifies that Armenia does not intend to
fall behind Azerbaijan. According to the conventional arms treaty,
Armenia had 102 tanks in 2001 (262 in Azerbaijan). Serj Sargsyan’s
statement shows that Armenia intends to cover this gap. It should be
noted that the republics’ official reports contravene experts’
conclusions. It shouldn’t be forgotten that the matter might concern
modernization of the Army of Nagorny Karabakh, which is much stronger
than the Armenia Army (Nagorny Karabakh has 316 tanks).

The most difficult thing is that the population of Armenia,
Azerbaijan and Nagorny Karabakh is not prepared to make concessions.
An opinion poll done by the Armenian center for national and
strategic surveys showed that 71.9% of the population is prepared to
defend Nagorny Karabakh (67.7% in July 2003). Only 3.3% of the
population thinks that Nagorny Karabakh could become part of
Azerbaijan.

At the same time, the co-chairmen of the Minsk OSCE group exert
pressure on Yerevan and Baku. They passed a statement addressed to
the governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan in London on March 15. They
are concerned about tension in the conflict zone. They noted that the
conflicting sides’ unwillingness to make concessions hinders
negotiations. According to the statement, “in such a delicate
situation when the co-chairmen of the Minsk OSCE group are close to
concluding an agreement between the conflicting sides, intermediaries
ask Armenia and Azerbaijan to meet obligations assumed in February
1995, and keep from making statements which could aggravate the
conflict. They must prepare the population of both republics to the
agreement, which can be achieved as a result of negotiations and
mutual compromises.” Judging from the documents, Yerevan and Baku
will probably make unexpected statements in the near future.

Translated by Alexander Dubovoi