President Bush’s Messages to the Baltic States, Russia, and Georgia
by Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
Heritage.org, DC
May 4 2005
Research: Russia & Eurasia
President George W. Bush’s visit to Latvia, Russia, and Georgia
underscores how much the geopolitical landscape in that part of the
world has changed in the 13 years since the collapse of the Soviet
Empire. In Riga, Bush will speak to the leaders of Estonia, Latvia,
and Lithuania, now members of North Atlantic Treaty Organization
and European Union and strong allies of America. Bush’s second stop,
Russia, once a rival, is now a strategic partner-an appropriately vague
term, to be sure. Georgia, the President’s final stop, and neighboring
Azerbaijan are emerging allies. The President must convey different
messages to the people and leaders of each country, while promoting
American foreign policy and security interests.
In Riga, Bush should acknowledge our new allies’ great achievements in
transitioning to democracy, adopting market economies, and becoming a
part of NATO. But he must remember that each of these countries has
raised a younger generation that doesn’t remember Soviet occupation
and is not as pro-American as its parents. This generation needs to
know that the U.S. was firm in its support of Baltic independence
and never recognized Soviet annexation. The task now is to keep these
young people friends of America.
While Bush should avoid creating new dividing lines in Europe, he
should still call for Russian recognition of Latvian and Estonian
borders and for Russia to finally sign a peace treaty with them. The
President could also tell the people of the Baltic states that their
well-earned and much-deserved freedom should not be dishonored by
expressions of sympathy to Nazis or by discrimination against their
Russian populations.
Russia presents different challenges. The President should address
the people of Russia through the usual press conferences and also by
meeting with democracy activists. He will likely address the great
sacrifices of the peoples of Russia and the former Soviet Union in
World War Two-a topic dear to every Russian’s heart.
Joseph Stalin was no doubt Adolph Hitler’s enabler in starting the
war, and the Soviet regime then was as bloodthirsty as the Nazis.
Stalin removed the top Soviet generals and was criminally negligent
and oblivious to the coming Nazi attack-Operation Barbarossa, which
started in June 1941. Soon millions of Soviet soldiers were surrounded,
and whole field armies were destroyed.
It was, however, the blood and heroism of millions of Russians,
Ukrainians, Tatars, Jews, Georgians, and others who stopped the Nazi
war machine. The battles for Stalingrad and Kursk broke the backbone
of the Wehrmacht. Marshal Georgii Zhukov’s gift for strategy helped
a lot. Still, the Soviets lost 25 million of their sons and daughters.
Bush can remind his audience that the Red Army’s World War II
victories were due in part to Franklin D. Roosevelt’s “lend-lease”
program: Studebaker trucks, Cobra fighter planes, SPAM, and GI boots
all played crucial roles.
Today the U.S. and Russia face a new enemy: implacable Islamist
terrorists coveting weapons of mass destruction (WMD). In talks
with Putin, Bush should advance joint efforts against proliferation,
such as the Nunn-Lugar program that spends up to $1 billion per year
to secure and destroy the creaky Russian WMD arsenal and related
materials. The U.S. and Russia should work together to prevent Iran
from obtaining nuclear weapons. While Teheran still lacks the missile
capability to strike the U.S., it could hit Russian soil today. The
two leaders should also discuss challenges the U.S. and Russia may
face in the future from an assertive and resource-hungry China.
America can also help the Russian people address several catastrophic
social trends: HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis epidemics and male life
expectancy that has fallen to just 58 to 59 years-lower than even
in Egypt. Russia suffers from waves of alcoholism, drug addiction,
and related illnesses, and its abortion rate is among the highest in
the world. This is not about geopolitics but helping Russians to lead
healthier, happier lives.
When meeting with Russia’s democracy activists, President Bush should
explain why America is promoting democracy around the world. Without
stentorian lectures, Bush can explain how democracy benefits Russia,
why free media helps fight corruption, and how transparency and the
rule of law attract foreign investment. If Russia wants to modernize,
it needs to liberalize. It is in the Russian national interest to be
free. The U.S. can help-if Russians want it to.
Finally, his speech at the Independence Square in Tbilisi will be
a great opportunity for the President to address the future. Bush
should acknowledge Georgia’s Rose Revolution, a bloodless victory
for democracy. He should express America’s and the world’s hopes that
Georgia will remain on the democratic path and that its territorial
integrity and sovereignty will be restored. The U.S. should support
the return of secessionist Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Georgia’s
fold and the withdrawal of Russian military forces from Georgian soil.
Further, President Bush should demand an end to the “frozen conflicts”
between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh and in Transnistria
in Moldova. These conflicts have gone on for too long and leave all
sides miserable and impoverished.
Finally, the President should express hope that peoples of the
region-from Belarus to Turkmenistan to Uzbekistan-will have their
right to elect their leaders respected. Tbilisi would be a terrific
location to launch a new campaign for a better future in the former
Soviet area, a future where dignity, the rule of law, civil society,
economic development, and freedom prevail.
Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is a Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian
Studies and International Energy Security at The Heritage Foundation.