Where is Turkey’s full EU membership heading?

TDN
Saturday, May 7, 2005

OPINIONS

Professor Faruk SEN

Until Dec. 17, 2004, nongovernmental organizations and the government
in Turkey and Turks in Europe had strained themselves to make sure
that Turkey received a date to start negotiations with the EU, with
full membership in mind. However, the decision on Dec. 17 was more
of an approach to the special status that is being offered Turkey
than the start of full membership negotiations.

The negotiations will be based on 36 articles to be approved by each
of the 25 member states, which is not a very positive development. Up
until now, the negotiated articles were never submitted for the
approval of all member states. Instead, after the negotiation of all
subjects, a single vote for all was conducted. The fact that there
are attempts to exclude Turkey from the “Right of Free Movement of
the People” and the “Agricultural Guarantee Funds” had made it rather
clear that a special set of rules were being prepared for Turkey.

The impression I received from diplomats with whom I had the chance to
discuss this issue, mainly in Germany and Brussels, is that Turkey’s
full membership will be considered after conveying some positive
signals to satisfy the EU. Meanwhile, the fact that Ukraine has changed
its direction towards democracy and Europe with the election of its new
president, who is likely to minimize relations with Russia and maximize
them with Europe, has confused the future direction of expansion.

What’s going on?

The Christian Democratic factions tend to exclude Turkey. The
developments that started in France and continued with the Armenian
issue being brought to the German Parliament by the Christian Democrats
created another obstacle that Turkey needs to overcome. The target
is increasing the number of barriers on Turkey’s path as well as the
number of people against Turkish membership.

During 2003 and 2004 the European press, which had been positive on
Turkey, started stressing the Armenian problem as well as the issues
of forced marriages and “honor killings,” with their “connections”
to Islam. Moreover, articles that had previously praised Turkey’s
positive approach to the Cyprus issue instantly changed course and
started putting forward arguments based on Turkey’s obligation to
recognize Cyprus as part of the customs union agreement. In this
direction, the scanning process, which was envisioned as starting at
the beginning of March, was postponed until Oct. 3.

Evaluating the latest developments from the eyes of a man who believes
in full Turkish membership and the fact that it is getting harder
every day, one needs to consider the referendum in France and the
attitudes of the Netherlands and Austria as well as the negative
signals coming from Hungary and Poland into consideration.

The EU, which has announced a budget of 92 billion euros for 2005,
will have at most a 130 billion euro budget by 2014, which is around
the date that Turkey is expected to become a member of the union. If
Turkey had become a member of the EU in 2004, it would have received
8.2 billion euros in aid. However, if Turkey gains full membership
by 2014, the EU assistance can be no more than 1.8 billion euros.

All these developments have put forward the fact that the Dec. 17
talks initiated membership with special status and that the EU’s
attitude towards Turkey has changed in a rather negative direction.

We have gone through a very hot fiancée period, and now both sides
are waiting for the other’s first move, evaluating whether the rings
should be thrown away. In this context, the U.S. attitude against
Iran, Syria and Iraq and the politics it will pursue in the future
could suddenly change this perspective from negative to positive.

We will have to wait and see.

–Boundary_(ID_chY90YTHr7nBKq8OAJajdw)–