U.S. IN CASPIAN REGION AND RUSSIA’S POSITION
RIA Novosty
4 May 2005
RIA Novosti commentator Pyotr Goncharov
MOSCOW — Iran has offered support for a Russian initiative on
the Caspian Sea states alone establishing a joint rapid reaction
force in the region. “These Caspian states should come to terms on
the establishment of a rapid reaction force,” said Iranian Foreign
Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi.
Russia’s initiative initially envisaged more than efforts to combat
international terrorist attacks against the region and to avert
other common threats. It was also designed to prevent countries from
outside the region, above all the U.S., from becoming involved in
the affairs of the region, which the U.S. has included in the zone
of its interests. This fully met Iran’s interests. Will Russia and
Iran be able toprevent an American presence in the Caspian region?
The idea of forming a rapid reaction coalition force in the Caspian
region is not new. In August 2002, the Russian Caspian flotilla
conducted naval exercises in the Caspian to practice rapid reactions
not only to terrorist attacks on oil pipelines but also to emergency
situations in Caspian countries. A high-ranking representative of
Iran’s navy who was present at the exercises praised Russia’s naval
strength there and recalled with delicate irony that both Moscow and
Tehran were in favor of “preventing the militarization of the Caspian
region.” His irony was to the point because Tehran’s call for the
other Caspian states to join Russia’s initiative may seem belated.
These apprehensions have come on the back of a recent lightning visit
to the capital of Azerbaijan, Baku, by U.S. Defense Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld. The visit was made in great secrecy, which immediately
reminded one of a statement by General James Jones, NATO Supreme Allied
Commander, Europe, in which he said that the U.S. planned to establish
military bases in the Caspian area and was drafting the Caspian Guard
program for the coming decade. Under this project, the U.S. attaches
particular importance to Azerbaijan, seeing it as a prime location
for deploying mobile rapid reaction forces and for solving its foreign
policy problems in the region, mainly those concerning Iran.
Significantly, the U.S. program also includes setting up special task
forces, whose mission will be similar to those Russia has proposed for
its regional plans: “a rapid reaction not only to terrorist attacks
at oil pipelines, but also to any emergency situations in the Caspian
countries.” A command center equipped with most up-to-date radars will
be established in Baku and the entire Caspian zone will become its
responsibility. Some analysts say the Azerbaijani authorities have
already agreed in principle to the proposal. The implementation of
the Caspian Guard program will pose a threat primarily to the defense
interests of Russia and Iran, as it includes observation systems for
the air and sea, and will place a vast territory under U.S. control.
As they try to consolidate the naval forces of the Caspian states in
their common interests, Moscow and Tehran are in favor of preventing
the Caspian’s militarization. However, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and
Turkmenistan are not concealing their desire to modernize their
naval forces, in which the U.S., in contrast to Iran and Russia, is
helping them. Kazakhstan’s navy will soon receive a ship displacing
more than 1,000 tons free of charge. The republic will establish
military infrastructure along its coast using American money. The
U.S. is offering the same to Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.
Furthermore, Washington is said to be considering a plan of forming
a tripartite union of the U.S., Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in the
region. Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and even Turkey may eventually
join it. Meanwhile, Russia’s initiative is only being discussed in
the media. All five Caspian states are unlikely to reach a mutually
acceptable solution to the “demilitarization, non-militarization or
limited militarization” of the Caspian area. The continuing wrangling
over the Caspian Sea’s legal status only serves to prove this, as Iran
and Turkmenistan have chosen to reject the understandings reached by
Azerbaijan, Russia and Kazakhstan on dividing the Caspian seabed.
But one thing is certain. The arrival of the U.S. in the Caspian
region will certainly upset the policies Moscow and Tehran pursue in
a region that is important for both countries.